NFL: Offseason betting notes

I don’t care that the season is over and baseball is on the horizon. I still want to talk NFL.

It’s been a couple of weeks now, but I still can’t get over the Eagles’ seemingly cavalier attitude. Not only did they lack urgency during the fourth quarter of their Super Bowl loss to the Patriots when they needed to run a hurry-up offense, but it's like they just expected to get back to the big show in 2005.

Don’t necessarily count on that. The Packers had a similar attitude after losing the 1998 Super Bowl to the Broncos as an 11 ½-point favorite. The Packers haven’t been back since. Green Bay is 2-6 its last eight playoff games. The past four Super Bowl losers, and five of the past six, haven’t even been able to finish above .500 the following season.

The NFC East, where the Eagles reside, isn’t an imposing conference. But it does have outstanding coaches (Hall of Famer Joe Gibbs, a sure Hall of Famer in Bill Parcells and solid Tom Coughlin) and aggressive owners. The landscape changes fast in the NFL with free agency, draft, parity and injuries.

History is against the Patriots, too, losing their two outstanding coordinators, Charlie Weis to Notre Dame and Romeo Crennel to the Browns. The last time that happened to a Super Bowl team was the 49ers in 1995 when Mike Shanahan left for the Broncos and Ray Rhodes departed for the Eagles. The 49ers have yet to return to the Super Bowl.

Crennel had been with Belichick on three NFL teams for 17 years, while Weis served Belichick for 10 seasons. These are not going to be easy coordinators to replace. It remains up in the air, too, if 31-year-old linebacker Tedy Bruschi can continue playing after suffering a mild stroke. Bruschi is extremely valuable because of his versatility. Houston Astros pitchers J.R. Richard had his career ended when he suffered a stroke at age 30 in 1980.

Scoring may be down for the Colts in 2005 and it might not have anything to do if Edgerrin James remains on the team. The Colts are replacing the carpet in their RCA Dome. The Colts may switch to Field Turf, which is kind of a hybrid grass and artificial turf similar to what the Seahawks play on. That might slow their track down. The Colts actually practice on this surface in their indoor facility.

Classic dropback quarterbacks are becoming an endangered species in the NFL with word coming out of Buffalo that the Bills plan on releasing Drew Bledsoe. Teams are looking to copy the Patriots’ quick-strike passing offense. The Bills hope to do that with J.P. Losman. With today’s pass rushers more athletic and faster than ever, and with the defensive mind-set of attacking the quarterback at all costs, there’s more of a premium on mobile quarterbacks than ever.

There are only a few teams whose offensive line is good enough to provide up to five seconds of pass protection time. So such proven veterans as Bledsoe, Kurt Warner, Brad Johnson and other slow pocket-type passers may have trouble finding places where they can start anymore.

It’s hard and sometimes unfair to compare eras, but you have to wonder just how effective Johnny Unitas would be in today’s NFL? Sure Unitas still would be an all-time great if he had Jim Parker and other outstanding linemen protecting him. No quarterback was tougher. But put Unitas, and his high top cleats, on more than half of today’s NFL teams going against today’s complicated defensive schemes and modern day athletes, and I believe he might struggle.

It didn’t take Crennel long, maybe five minutes, to jettison quarterback Jeff Garcia as Browns quarterback. This was a bad fit from the start. Garcia is strictly a systems quarterback. He needs to be in a West Coast style offense, while then-Browns coach Butch Davis wanted to be a physical, run-between-the-tackles team. Good riddance to both.

I don’t think people fully realize what a disaster Davis turned out to be. He could go down as one of the worst head coaches ever when you factor in his personnel decisions. It’s going to take Crennel a while to dig out from Davis’ mess. Hopefully Browns management realizes that.

Garcia and the Lions would make a good fit. Garcia made two Pro Bowls when he played for Steve Mariucci with the 49ers. The Lions have promising stars at wide receiver and running back and a decent offensive line. They could be dangerous playing in a division with weak defenses if they had a good quarterback. Joey Harrington is 14-30 in 44 NFL starts. After three seasons it is clear Harrington wasn’t worth the No. 3 overall selection in the 2002 draft.

The Lions’ Super Bowl odds range from 40-1 to 100-1. If the Lions were to get Garcia they would move into legitimate long shot territory, although NFC North teams face NFC South and AFC North teams in 2005. That means the Lions draw the Falcons, Panthers, Buccaneers, Ravens and Steelers in 2005 along with the Saints, Bengals and Browns.

Stephen Nover is a handicapper with Covers Experts.

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