Today's NCAAB Picks
Wagner’s defense may have some decent numbers, but it hasn’t been tested. The Seahawks’ strength of opposing offenses ranks just 354th, per Kenpom. They haven't played capable shooting teams and have been happy to let teams fly away from downtown. Howard is a different test entirely — the Bison rank 20th in 3-point shooting (37.4%). Meanwhile, Howard’s defense has been dreadful despite facing a favorable schedule (349th in strength of opposing offenses faced). They’ve been routinely beaten anyway, holding just four opponents below 65 points all year long.
JD Yonke - Pick Made 21 hrs, 2 min ago.
The Mean Green are just 295th in the country in 2PT% (47.2%) and 222nd in TO rate (17.3%). That, combined with the third-slowest tempo, means they don't score much. They were held to fewer than 65 points on six occasions against AAC foes and the only Power Six teams they faced this season (St John's and Mississippi State) held them below 55 points. The Tigers didn't look great on defense in conference play but facing the up-tempo attacks in the SEC didn't help. They locked opponents up earlier in the season, allowing just 67.9 ppg in their first 14 contests, which included a 66-62 win against UNT on a neutral site. I'm not sold on North Texas' ability to score against a Power Six opponent, especially on the road in an intimidating venue.
Rohit Ponnaiya - Pick Made 17 hrs, 55 min ago.
The Rams have played above this total in 32 of their 34 games this year. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers haven’t consistently been able to keep scoring down, having hit the Over in four of their last five games — all of which were played at higher totals than Tuesday’s game. Virginia has also gone Over 120.5 points in 20 of their 33 games this season. This is a case of oddsmakers looking at the real tendencies of a team and going way too far with the line they produce as a result.
Ed Scimia - Pick Made 18 hrs, 14 min ago.
The Flyers opened as 1.5-point underdogs but this spread will likely close with Dayton as the favorite, given current movement. We're grabbing the best outright price on them ahead of this run-in with Nevada. Dayton is extremely efficient on offense and gets to the rim for high-percentage looks while also knocking down its share of triples. The Flyers are a very controlled team on defense as well, getting whistled for only 13.4 fouls per game - fifth fewest in the country. Nevada's strong backcourt is reliant of drawing contact (second most PFs from foes per game) and generates almost 24% of its total points from the charity stripe. The Wolfpack won't get those freebies, especially with the refs swallowing their whistles come tourney time. Game models call for a tight No. 7 vs. No. 10 contest, but three of the four I've consulted give the nod to the Flyers.
Jason Logan - Pick Made 17 hrs, 23 min ago.
The McNeese St. Cowboys dominated the Southland conference and they enter the tournament on an 11-game winning streak with nine of those victories coming by 15+ points. They are 11th in the country in defensive efficiency and they shoot lights out from the arc ranking seventh in the country with a 38.4 3PT%. This Gonzaga team is good but not the offensive juggernaut it has been the past few seasons, finishing second-fiddle to Saint Mary's in the WCC. The Zags have struggled to defend outside shooters (184th in opponent 3PT%) and sit outside the Top 200 in opponent turnover rate.
Rohit Ponnaiya - Pick Made 19 hrs, 8 min ago.
This is an interesting line with No. 11-seed New Mexico favored against No. 6-seed Clemson. The Lobos caught on fire to win the Mountain West tourney but they might have used up all their juice. They went a middling 10-8 in conference play during the regular season and generally play far worse away from home since they don't have the advantage of playing at elevation. They also played a weak non-conference schedule and the only half-decent opponent they faced (St. Mary's) beat them by 14. Clemson has a Top-30 offense and an experienced squad with a good backcourt in Chase Hunter and Joseph Girard plus a skilled big man in P.J. Hall.
Rohit Ponnaiya - Pick Made 18 hrs, 56 min ago.
New Mexico enters as one of the fastest paced teams in the country, ranking No. 8 in pace rating. That's set the tone for an offense scoring almost 90 points per game, which has led to an 18-12 O/U mark on the season. Clemson is no slouch when it comes to scoring, either. The Tigers ranked 27th in offensive efficiency and put up more than 78 points an outing. This total opened as low as 147.5 when the bracket hit and it ticked up overnight into Monday morning. Game models call for a combined 153 points or more, which still leaves a lot of room for the Over 149.
Jason Logan - Pick Made 1 day, 0 hrs, 4 min ago.
The Alabama Crimson Tide won't make it far in March with their shaky defense but they should cruise to an easy victory in Round 1. The Charleston Cougars are even worse on defense, ranking just 176th in adjusted defensive efficiency, and they push the pace, so they'll play right into the hands of Alabama's up-tempo style. The Cougars are solid on offense but with just three players averaging double-digits in points and their leading scorer putting up just 12.8 ppg, they don't have the firepower to keep up with a Bama attack that leads the country with 90.8 ppg.
Rohit Ponnaiya - Pick Made 18 hrs, 51 min ago.
Wisconsin plays at a sluggish pace, which is never good for winning with a margin. The Badgers played well during the Big Ten tourney but had lost eight of their final 11 games to end the regular season and that inconsistency puts them on upset watch. Especially against a JMU squad that ran through the Sun Belt conference and has a 31-3 record. The Dukes have been strong on both sides of the floor, ranking 12th in the country in defensive efficiency and 20th in the offensive. Often, when you see matchups between teams from smaller conferences and marquee Power-Six programs, there is a disparity in terms of athleticism and size. That isn't the case here with Wisconsin lacking high-end athletes and JMU having the length and physicality to compete.
Rohit Ponnaiya - Pick Made 18 hrs, 30 min ago.
Grand Canyon opened +5.5 and has been bet down to +4.5 to most books, just a few hours after the bracket was revealed. Game projections for this Round of 64 matchup in the West Region have St. Mary's edging the Antelopes by as few as four points. Grand Canyon is the class of the Western Athletic Conference but has also tested its mettle versus non-conference tourney teams like South Carolina and SDSU, who it beat in December. The Antelopes are a very balanced team, with a strong defense that finished Top 10 in effective field goal rate against. They also have a superstar in Tyon Grant-Foster, who averaged almost 20 points this season.
Jason Logan - Pick Made 1 day, 10 hrs, 20 min ago.
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