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Teams I've locked in: NE -2.5
Teams I'm considering: NYJ +18.5, SF +6, CLE +21 (still waiting for the hook), TB +22, BAL +14 (want hook for this, but probably won't get it), CHI +18.5 (big-scoring game, I'll take the higher number). |
dl36 | 46 |
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it's good value, but i simply can't. especially with the kind of lineup the indians are fielding tonight. no brantley/cabrera, lillibridge playing short.
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TheDrizzle77 | 8 |
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A touch scared of the -1.5 line in the CLE/TEX game b/c of Harrison's last few poor starts, plus the fact that it went from even money to -115, so I went with the following parlay:
Cubs/Astros OVER 7.5 (bought 1 run) -150 Rangers -1 (-163) 59 to win 100 Thoughts?
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thatguy7 | 1 |
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Good stuff Wahoo. I'll be definitely hammering Louisiana-Lafayette. How they're only getting 3 pts on the road against a putrid Western Kentucky team is beyond me. Might parlay ULL and Wisky's ML, gives you a nice +118 line.
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WahooS | 120 |
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1 - 7
Probably the most pathetic start to a season so far for me. Hopefully this slate of games will help turn it around. PHI/OTT Over 5.5 -103 (BIG) STL ML +120 EDM ML +160 Also parlayed STL and EDM for +472 odds. GL to all!
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thatguy7 | 2 |
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Updating my thread. Made 2 bets on the Pens early in the morning today when the lines came out. Only two plays are as follows:
PIT ML -116 PIT -1.5 +255 This was before announcements of E. Kane, Kennedy, and Malkin being out. I now have a little less faith in PIT covering the 2 goals, but I still think they pull this one out.
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thatguy7 | 10 |
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Just to update this thread as well, Jets will be without Evander Kane tonight.
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SkySky | 12 |
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Also in Pens bettors favor, Evander Kane will miss the game for the Jets tonight.
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LeRinkRat | 14 |
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GL Dith. Definitely look at Pitt ML. I got em at -116 with reduced juice at 5Dimes. Amazing value on that line for that big of a talent discrepancy between the two teams, even though Malkin will be out.
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Dith | 32 |
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Okay, is there something Vegas knows that I don't? Right now, ML on PIT is sitting at -120. The only thing I see is that Malkin did not make the trip. Seems like a huge overreaction on Vegas' part. Pens have been playing a lot this year without Malkin, and they've still looked great without him.
Not sure if I'm gonna go PL, or maybe put a little each on ML and -1 lines, but I'm playing the Pens today.
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thatguy7 | 10 |
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It's gonna be -200 and above. No question in my mind. This is a mismatch of the highest order. Books are gonna have to overinflate the line to make anyone even think of looking at Winnipeg.
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thatguy7 | 10 |
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And yes. Pitt is the pick for me. I simply cannot find any reason to convince myself to take a horrible Winnipeg team. This is gonna be a PIT -1 or PIT -1.5 pick. There's gonna be a LOT of juice to reduce, folks.
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thatguy7 | 10 |
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That link above is the in-game thread from the Jets/Coyotes thread. Judging from the commenters, the Jets might be more incompetent than even Ottawa.
Probably the most telling comment is when one commenter questions how the Jets managed to be .500 last year. Another commenter answers back with what I think is the most insightful info on Winnipeg: last year's coach Craig Ramsay played a very aggressive system to generate more offense, which mean the defense would play up and pinch more, and the forwards would more aggressively forecheck. This has a two-fold effect: more scoring, and it hides their defense's incompetence. New coach Claude Noel is trying to play a more defensive game, but they simply don't have the personnel for that. The end result is what we're seeing: reduced offense, low puck possession, high turnover rate, overmatched defense not being able to clear the zone. I do really think the Jets can turn it around, but Pittsburgh simply isn't the team I think they'll be successful against. Pitt has too stingy of a defense, a far deeper offense (with or without Malkin) thanks to Neal and Kennedy's emergences, a far-improved power play to go along with an already excellent PK, and the biggest strength, their forechecking. Pitt is simply gonna grind down on Winnipeg's defense, and the turnover machine is gonna keep on rolling.
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thatguy7 | 10 |
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1 - 5 on the year
Horrible start. Simply think I'm looking at too many games. Gonna try to narrow my focus and work on capping just a couple teams for the time being. One game jumps out at me, as it did with pretty much everyone: Pens/Jets. On paper it looks like a juicy matchup to take Pitt in regulation or PL. There are a lot of stats that can illustrate the disparity in talent between the 2 teams, but the fact of the matter is that Pitt, for the most part, has been running like the well-oiled machine everyone expected them to be. Winnipeg simply has been outmatched in every single game they've played. We can't expect this trend to continue all the time, however you can't help but project that a highly skilled, disciplined, defensively-responsible team like Pittsburgh will wipe the floor with a Jets team that has little scoring depth, horrible special teams, average at best goaltending, and maybe the worst defense in the entire league. The Jets look every bit the part of the team in flux. https://www.arcticicehockey.com/2011/10/15/2490868/jets-vs-coyotes-game-thread#comments |
thatguy7 | 10 |
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1 - 5 on the season. Gotta turn it around!
Only 1 play today BUF -1 -106 BOL to all!
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thatguy7 | 2 |
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SJ/ANH Over 5.5 -110
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Lippsman | 22 |
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0 - 2 -260
CAR/BUF Over 5.5 (-110)
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WillBetAnything | 60 |
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TY everyone. Ferguson, if Schneider is in net, I will reevaluate. Although I'm really putting this more on Detroit's defense and Howard's sometimes unsteady play than anything else (hence taking Vancouver ML).
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thatguy7 | 5 |
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1 - 3
Flyers ML Bruins -1 Early leans for Thursday DET/VAN Over 5.5 -110 NSH/PHX 1st period Under 1.5 LAK/NJD 1st period Under 1.5 VAN ML +125
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thatguy7 | 5 |
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Final card
Flyers ML -130 Bruins -1 +150 Good luck to all!
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thatguy7 | 2 |
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