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Absolutely hedge. The juice is in winning something. Anything. These are 21 year old collegiate athletes. S#*t can happen. You bet the tournament looking to win. Now…you’re guaranteed to win. Something. |
bluecompass | 19 |
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@MoPinkie Vegas wants Chiefs money. The books are sooooo exposed on SF preseason $$$ on them winning the Super Bowl. Even of this one game has 70% KC, Vegas wins with a Chiefs victory. |
Sladerunningfox | 11 |
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So, the “Big Game” is one week away. Opinions and predictions are everywhere. I’m here so I don’t get fined. Back in the day, waaay back in the day, there was a bookie joint in my neighborhood. Blackboard with the lines, flash paper with an empty coffee can on the table and pinkie rings everywhere. As the Super Bowl approached, there were only two teams and everyone had their pick. There was a guy who didn’t hide from whom he was going to bet. After three years, I think, of siding with the wrong team in the Game, his view of the matchup became the gospel rule of who…..not to bet. Like Eddie Mush in “The Bronx Tale”, the guy I’m referring to, lost the Super Bowl every year until he passed on. There were two teams on the field, thousands in attendance of the Game, and millions watching and listening to the Game. But, one man, ONE MAN, was the reason for the outcome! Enjoy Super Bowl week everyone. If you’re going to Vegas, you gotta have dinner at the Golden Steer steakhouse.
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takethecannolis | 9 |
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Hello. I hope everyone gets through this coming weekend without freaking out. There’s no real football action! Back in the day, my worst time of the year was the MLB All Star break. I couldn’t make a real bet for three days. AAAAHHHHHGGGG! Early post on what is, honestly, the game not to bet. I am also a knowledgeable horse player. Ask me who I like in the Kentucky Derby. I’ll have an opinion, but it is a horrible gambling proposition. A field of 20 three year olds going a 1 1/4 miles with a crowd of 140,000 plus…bad betting spot. This is probably a worse spot, considering the odds. But….here I go I am a wagering mathematician. The situations will not work out all the time. Not even close. But you don’t have to be Oz the Mentalist to “put 2 & 2 together”. As a group that wagers on sports, we are looking for spots. When you have a Super Bowl, that spot disappears. Your opinion is all ego. I personally will refer to the old adage that “the house never loses”. The books have taken 80% action on the Kansas Swifty Chiefs in the game. But, because there was soooo much preseason action on the Niners to get the Lombardi trophy, Vegas actually wants KC. Think about it. Now, the line is SF -2.5. The spread has gone up, enticing those “who think they know” to bet the 49ers. In the Super Bowl, the casual gambler (via their favorite wagering site) will bet the favorite. I know early numbers on Covers say over 60% Chiefs. Because this community is educated. As I said, not a great wagering spot. But I wish everyone the best of luck. Please don’t let the fact that the the team that wears white jerseys are 16-3 in the last 19 Super Bowls. I’m going with Wilbert Harrison and his song…look it up. Sorry Tony Bennett, Scott McKenzie, and everyone from Haight-Ashbury. Good luck everybody!
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takethecannolis | 10 |
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The home team, on offense, is playing not to lose… instead of playing to win. The coaching staff needs to light a fire at halftime.
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takethecannolis | 2 |
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Hey Covers community! Good luck on your plays today. If you want to hear the talking heads on the 18 hour long pregame shows say… “the team that controls the line of scrimmage, doesn’t commit penalties and doesn’t turn the ball over, will probably win the game” No sh*t, Sherlock. I want to give a gamblers point of view. At the end of the day, you are viewing these posts because you want to put some $$$ on the games. My view on the Bills/ Chiefs game last week cashed. I am using the same reasoning in the AFC Title tilt. The line is now Ravens -4.5. Kansas Swifty is good. Really good. Defending the title. I’m on Baltimore 100%. They are really good and the books know it. Defense wins games like this, but having a guy like Tucker makes things easier. Remember that Andrews is back. And the defense hits, and hits hard. The line is 4.5 for a reason. Should probably be -3. WAIT A SECOND! That’s what the dialogue is gonna be on the pregame. PTOOEY! Gambler says Ravens and lay the wood. NFC Championship game. 6:30 Sunday night. Sports betting is legal in numerous states. The love is all around the Motor City Kitty Kats. Great story. “You mean Detroit is getting 7.5 points? Are you kidding me?” That will be echoed throughout the country. An inflated line to entice the public to grab the underdog. No one’s right all the time, but this is a lollipop line. Sucking in Lions money. After the adult beverages are consumed during the first game Sunday, the public will remain on Detroit. I’m with the Niners and laying the points again in game two. The analysis posted is purely a view from someone that has been doing this for decades. Getting inside the minds of the oddsmakers. I hope they pan out! Good luck all and make yourselves a nice antipasto platter and enjoy the games!
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takethecannolis | 5 |
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He just can’t shut up. Awful. And his son is waiting in the wings. Anyone agree? |
takethecannolis | 12 |
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Helllloooooooo Covers community! I’ve finally started to walk without a limp after the Eagles screwed me last week. Have you ever seen a group of professional athletes show up for a game where that was the last thing they wanted to do that day? Let’s move on. Mel Farr, Alex Karras, Mike Lucci, Barry Sanders, Calvin Johnson, Jason Hanson (no he doesn’t host NFL Red Zone), Wayne Fontes. They will all be at the game today cheering for the Motor City Kitty Cats. Some from the stands and some from “up above”. Great story! Shuffling off to Buffalo for game two. Not shuffling on to Buffalo…off to Buffalo. Don’t like the line at -2.5 for the Mafia. Don’t like it at all. IMHO, the line should be -3. The books are taking loads of cash on the favorites. Mr. Contrarian here is all in on the….. Kansas Swifty Chiefs. Good luck all! (Wow, did the Ravens look friggin great yesterday, or what?) |
takethecannolis | 4 |
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Good afternoon all. Been sitting on this game all weekend. I’m glad that the lack of action led me to a spontaneous under play in Motown last night that cashed. Playing with house $$$ tonight, but the $$$ really belongs to me! The Eggles are limping into Florida tonight as a road favorite. The Bucs are playing host in a fairly improbable run into the post season. Maybe we can see why one team is truly deserved to be respected by the oddsmakers…. Tampa Bay played their last six games versus teams who were a combined 38-64. Philly, excluding their last three games, played teams that were a combined 67-35. I am excluding the Eggles last three regular season games due to that exhausting six game stretch (games vs. Dallas twice, KC, Buffalo, SF, Seattle) and that their playoff reservation was pretty much a given. Also, if it wasn’t for DJ Chark dropping the ball while attempting to cross the goal line in Tampa’s final game, the Bucs may not be in this spot today. I’m riding with the visitors today in Florida. Hurts so good! Good luck everyone….
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takethecannolis | 6 |
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Good Sunday afternoon Covers community! The following thought comes from years wasted at local bookie joints and bars… When I saw the matchup of the Rams and Lions, my lightbulb went on and said “wow, the team that has the ball last wins”. There has to be a track meet up and down the field. Score, score, score. Now the contrarian side of me says….no. Tomorrow is a holiday. The TV ratings on both games will be huge, especially with the postponement of the 1:00 game. Football fans everywhere are freaking out waiting for 4:30. But I’m going to the 8:15 game. This could be the most watched game of the year. Nationally televised. And what do casual fans do when they have the next day off and have a few adult beverages in them? They go to their favorite betting site and play the total to go over. No casual, repeat, casual fan plays the under. With that being said, my O/U line was 55. It’s 52.5. Say what you will about a point or a point there. It matters in my mind after decades of following this stuff. I’m taking the under in the Rams/ Lions tilt. And just a reminder…. I have a Yogi Berra line when it comes to a play like this….It’s never under, til it’s over. Good luck everyone!
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takethecannolis | 2 |
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Hello and Happy 2024 to the Covers community. As we put a bow on the regular season, I’m telling you all what’s inside the box… We’re going to Carolina. Sunny and 52 degrees. We have the visitors in a “win and in” situation. They’re 10-6 ATS. 7-1 ATS on the road. A cocky QB who seems to have found a home with Tampa Bay. They’re playing a team that’s 2-14. The Pussycats just got shutout in Jacksonville. Mayfield was jettisoned out of Carolina. Revenge game again? What can go wrong? Chuba Hubbard. That’s what can go wrong.
Had his best game versus the Bucs a few weeks ago. Chris Tabor is likely coaching his last game ever as the main guy in the NFL. The home team will play today. Play hard. Mayfield is one shot to the ribs away from going to the sidelines. I’m grabbing the points. The Bucs didn’t get it done at home last week and I believe they’ll struggle today on the road. Carolina burnt me earlier this year so they owe me. Good luck all!
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takethecannolis | 1 |
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Old rule in the NFL… At home you play for a tie and on the road to play for the win |
WonderWeasel | 17 |
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Hello Covers Community! Happy 31st of December and I am going to Kansas City, Kansas City here I come…. Take any team that lost their last game outright as a double digit favorite and are playing at home in their following game. This isn’t a sexy pick, but “let’s go Chieeeeeeeeefs” Good luck all! |
takethecannolis | 2 |
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Well, that Movado watch and the Tiffany bracelet under the tree might need more time to pay off after the Jacksonville Pussycats stunk up the field yesterday. Today is for family, a few libations and football. I don’t believe the Raiders can win today. But, how can you not grab 10.5 points on a team that scored 63 in their last game? Taking the dogs. Enjoy the day everyone! |
takethecannolis | 2 |
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Ouch. I guess there will be coal in my stocking. So much for the Jaguars today. I could’ve coached them for a better effort. My thought is their QB should still be in concussion protocol. Merry Christmas everyone…. |
takethecannolis | 1 |
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Merry Christmas Eve all! Keeping the analysis simple this week. In horse racing, when a horse runs a career best race or sets a track record, I throw that nag right in the river next race (except if the horse is a multi stakes winner). Wouldn’t bet it with wooden money. Baker Mayfield had a perfect passer rating in his last game in Lambeau Field. Mayfield is not a stakes winner. Go Jaguars, go Jaguars, go Jaguars! Good luck everyone! |
takethecannolis | 6 |
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Favorites were 13-3 ATS last week One game played today, one Dog cashes Analyze the lines everyone |
takethecannolis | 6 |
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Hey Covers community! Did not have that “love this game feeling” today. So, I’m going to the prime time game for a little action. The favorites have had a great week. Terrific week. Tonight’s game will attract a lot of $$$ for the Blackbirds. Another favorite. Good luck all….
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takethecannolis | 4 |
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Hello everyone. Hope you all cashed yesterday. As for me, I lost the vig going 1-1. How ‘bout them Jets!? Gonna try to make a small profit for the week tonight. Remember, it’s not a sprint. It’s a marathon. Let’s look at the recent home games for the Giants. They have given up 27 points in three games. The Cheeseheads have a road match up tonight following a win on Turkey Day and then beating the defending champs on national TV. I smell a letdown for the visitors. Green Bay is susceptible against the run. With Mona Lisa DeVito under center for Big Blue, they want to run, run, run. Look for Saquon Barkley to have a good night and the Giants defense give Jordan Alexander Love a tough time tonight. Taking the home team. Good luck everyone!
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takethecannolis | 2 |
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Hello Covers community. Since the passing of Shane MacGowan I’m listening to “Fairytale of NY” every day. What a friggin song. I feel the Covers community, if you’ve never listened to it, will think it’s great. My personal tribute will come Christmas Eve, where I will include an NFL interpretation of that song that includes my picks for the 24th. RIP Shane MacGowan. Game one, in preference, will focus on the Dirty Boids of Atlanta. Do you guys realize that the home team can create distance in their division on Sunday with a win against the Bucs? They come off two straight wins. They show up EVERY week. EVERY week. This is a gut feeling. I don’t think Mayfield is much of a QB and Bowles is much of a head coach. Atlanta finds itself in a great position, with the Panthers next week. I’m gliding with with the Birds. Game two, wow. I’m out of my mind. Certifiably out of my mind. My pick has maybe the worst QB in the league. Has a coach that can’t call a coin flip without going to study film first. Their opponents have a stud rookie QB that is lighting up the stat sheet. The visitors come off three home games, and have another away tilt next week. Why is the line coming down? I’m on the…Jets. The Falcons at home are battling Tampa, in Jersey Gang Green have a team from Texas In one I’m laying, the other got wood Good luck all!
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takethecannolis | 2 |
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