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For anyone interested, I'll be running an NBA chase system this year. It has backtested pretty well and I'd like to contribute to this community. I'll start a thread soon.
In the meantime, let's keep this hockey system rolling Should have a play tonight!
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Danrules24 | 4273 |
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Opening lines suggest Vegas and Vancouver, but Arizona line has moved quite a bit. I'm sure Dan will explain how to deal with this situation soon.
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Danrules24 | 4273 |
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Confidence payed off Dan
Keep it rollin
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Danrules24 | 4273 |
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Waiting for Dan's confirmation but I would agree. Only Anaheim is listed as a road favorite. |
Danrules24 | 4273 |
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All in this year, Dan. Lets hope last year was our only outlier Best of luck to us all! |
Danrules24 | 4273 |
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Grus,
How did this system finish the year? Looked promising, any updated numbers? -ssquerd
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Grus | 89 |
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Thasian,
Great find here. By chance, could you find the results of this query when the odds are specifically between -110 and -180? Appreciate the effort. ssquerd
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Thasian | 4 |
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Thanks for the info Buckeye, this is helpful.
May I contribute my opinion to RL odds... I think your numbers are optimistic. It seems a realistic reduction in odds equates to around 80, best case 100. So a team that is listed -246 would probably be around -146 for RL odds. A team at -206 may be around -106 RL odds. If we parlay these odds (-146 and -106) our return is +227. You have +459 listed in your example above. Thoughts? I'm wondering what the return on this system would be if numbers closer to mine were used? Keep up the good work -ssquerd
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BuckeyeKaptn | 56 |
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Hey guys,
Quick question on the spreadsheet data regarding MLB -1.5RL backtesting. Am I to surmise that backtested data from 2013 is showing an average annual profit of $267 and $497 units from the "Top 2" and "Top 2 ML" system plays, respectively, based on a $1 unit size? This seems outlandish, which is why I'm probably misunderstanding the sheet. Also, any help with the exact distinction between these two systems would be useful. I understand each system uses a top 2 model with the appropriate progression betting. Thanks for all the hard work! -ssquerd
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BuckeyeKaptn | 56 |
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Great system Dan, just read through these posts.
Was wondering, based on the use of your labby line MM system, how many units you would be up in total over the years of tracking. Appreciate your time and effort...keep rolling boys.
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Danrules24 | 677 |
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Aggressive labby still puts you up 30%. I started the year a week later than most, to avoid that series loss we always seem to get at the beginning of the year and let the RPI settle.
I don't see why anyone would martingale any system when a labby accomplishes the same thing and spreads the risk. Of course, it would be nice to get some wins and clear some lines here the next 3 weeks Nobody jump ship. Proper money management and a strong finish here puts this system well into the black for another year. I hope Degen continues to automate this system and Dan continues to post plays. There are few systems out there that stand the test of time and this seems to be one of them.
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Danrules24 | 682 |
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If I may add a little insight...
Our overall strike rate so far this year is 62%. Last year my records show a rate of just under 60%. Due to the higher rate of C game bets, I think the more profitable way to bet is using a labby or aggressive labby. The lines WILL clear, eventually. Over the last 2-3 weeks we're hitting under 50%. This trend is unlikely to continue. I'm still up a few units. Stay positive. The lines WILL clear and we will be well in the black. Not even halfway through the year yet.
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Danrules24 | 682 |
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Quote Originally Posted by heinz2141: It's a great concept, and I know there are folks that do it, or at least attempt to in the USA. I know some folks can stomach the risk, but for my livelihood, I don't see how anyone can put a sizable piece of their bankroll off-shore anymore. With all of the random closings, slow pays, and various FBI/IRS/Govt probes, I think it's just an unneeded risk. I'm not knocking anyone who does it, and I wish them all well, but it's tough enough just to beat the house. It's even tougher to have to beat the government and everyone else who is trying to get a piece of the action. This is something I fear, which is why i started the thread. Trying to weigh the pros and cons of moving to vegas or betting offshore. For those of you who wager larger amounts offshore, anybody run into any legal troubles or tax problems? It's my understanding that betting sports offshore is a "grey" area.
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ssquerd | 9 |
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I know this forum is for topics related to Vegas, but I was wondering if anybody here makes significant money living elsewhere in the US and using only offshore accounts.
Was interested to see if anyone is "living the dream" outside of Vegas.
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ssquerd | 9 |
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For anyone using account wagering (online) through Station Casinos, what are the limits for baseball, hockey, etc.
Someone commented that the limits for account wagering were less than going to window, and I'm interested in how much less.
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SportsFan9698 | 29 |
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Danrules,
Was wondering if you were using this system this season and, if so, with what results. The back testing you did looked promising. Thought about using this system myself but wasn't sure if the system had been optimized and/or didn't back test well beyond last season. Special thanks to you and degen for the work you put in, especially keeping the rpi chase alive.
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CannedGoods | 105 |
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I plan on using it this year as well. Followed the thread last year, this will be my first year using it.
Reap, since you already started, will you be using teams outside the top 165 or top 180? If i remember right, kine changed this number from 180 to 165 last year, although I don't remember why.
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Knoxpoker | 7 |
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Bake, whats your record YTD?
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bakemcbride | 39 |
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BOL man....keep it up!
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scitommy | 8 |
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Hey guys, New to the forums and going to start betting college football next season. Wondering who you guys consider to be the most successful cappers on here that post regularly. Thanks for the help! |
ssquerd | 2 |
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