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Detroit will get Okudah and Collins back who they didn't have during the 4th quarter meltdown last week. Plus Green Bay will be without its best defensive player. |
Battalion74 | 5 |
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Just one man's opinion but Colts +6.5 is one of my supercontest picks. It wasn't one of my Top 3 because I do share some of stoidi's concerns on Rivers vs Indy's pass defense but some of the other matchups out-weighed that for me. Chargers might have one of the five worst offensive lines in the league in its current state. Using profootballreference, I looked up the games Melvin Gordon has missed and over the course of his career the Chargers run the ball about 5% less than their season average when he's out. This would put them as one of the 5-6 pass heaviest teams based on last year's numbers. Maybe they still have success because the Colts don't have the greatest pass defense but I could see them struggle to sustain drives passing that much with a bad offensive line and a statue at QB. On the other side I think the Colts will be fine, mostly because of their offensive line. Like you said the OL can somewhat neutralize the Chargers' pass rush, and I think Indy can run on LAC all day. Their run defense wasn't great last year to begin with and now Derwin James is out, Jatavis Brown is doubtful, and Denzel Perryman isn't 100% yet returning from a season-ending injury. As far as Brissett, I think he can settle in as an average quarterback in the Andy Dalton range. A little more than a game manager but isn't going to single-handedly win you games. With multiple weeks to prepare knowing Brissett would be starting, I think Reich can come up with a good game-plan against this Chargers defense. Lastly, after years of kicking troubles the Chargers found their answer last year in Michael Badgley. Badgley injured his groin in practice yesterday and is now questionable for tomorrow's game. Maybe it matters, maybe it doesn't, but just one more thing that could tilt things Indy's way. Chargers 24-20 |
ChrisBanks | 8 |
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This might be a stupid question, but what is the best way to use this magazine? I'm generally more of a match-up based bettor so reading this for the first time is a lot to unpack. Do you just follow the trends? Look for multiple trends that support each other for a certain game? |
bpickin | 14 |
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Bears +3
Panthers +2.5 Colts +3.5 Texans -1 Lions +7 |
jlindy87 | 1 |
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Bears +6.5
Vikings -4.5 Titans +5 Broncos +3.5 Panthers +6.5 |
jlindy87 | 1 |
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Texans +6
Bears +7.5 Seahawks -2.5 Giants +3 Ravens +7 |
jlindy87 | 1 |
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Falcons -4
Lions +6 Bears -1 Rams +13.5 Jets +2 |
jlindy87 | 1 |
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Texans +1 1/2
Cardinals +4 49ers +7 1/2 Raiders -3 Jets +8 |
jlindy87 | 1 |
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Bears +7.5
Bills +2.5 Rams +2.5 Eagles +6.5 Redskins -2.5 |
jlindy87 | 1 |
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I like most of your picks and am using the Thanksgiving angle as well. Only disagreement is GB/Was. I think the fact that GB went into Washington and beat them in the playoffs last year could somewhat mitigate the look-ahead factor. I also don't think GB matches up well with the Skins but we'll see. Hoping they can pull out a win.
GL this week |
bpickin | 28 |
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Chiefs +3
Vikings +3 Bears PK Seahawks +7.5 Bengals +2 |
jlindy87 | 1 |
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In my experience Bovada seems to take way longer than every other book to post a line even when it's fairly well known if the player in question is playing or not.
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Fballguy | 14 |
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Vikings -5.5
Jets +3.5 Colts +7.5 Titans +5 Bills +6.5 |
jlindy87 | 1 |
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Falcons -3
Texans -2.5 Saints +2.5 Browns +3 Chargers +5.5 |
jlindy87 | 1 |
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Dolphins +3
Chargers +6.5 Titans -2.5 Jets PK 49ers +2 |
jlindy87 | 1 |
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I believe Cincy is at home against Cleveland, not that I'd lay the points anyway. Couple other thoughts:
Pats would be a no play for me if the line stays above 7. I think the Steelers can have success running the ball on NE, especially if Collins is still out. I know the Patriots dominate the Steelers but with Roethlisberger out, I wonder if they keep it pretty vanilla on offense knowing they could see Pit again down the road. They also play at Buffalo in Week 8, is it possible this is a letdown spot with Big Ben out? The Pats could easily roll and make me look foolish, but there's enough questions to make me lay off. Looking ahead to Thursday: As a Packers fan I don't know how in the world they are laying this many points (9.5 at the Westgate) to anyone right now. Their offense is inconsistent at best and over the years the defense has been the king of giving up late scores with a double digit lead. GB's top 3 cornerbacks didn't practice today and could miss the game. The defense already struggles against tight ends (26th in DVOA going into Week 6) so Zach Miller should have a solid game. Hoyer has been playing well and with Jeffrey and Meredith potentially going against Green Bay's 3rd/4th/5th corners this is a big play on Chicago for me. |
porcelainfist | 24 |
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14-11 on the year. Rough past couple weeks but I feel good about the season as a whole when I do poorly the weeks the public wins.
Week 6 Bengals +8.5 Saints +3 Seahawks -6.5 Cowboys +4.5 Dolphins +7.5 GL to everyone in the real thing |
jlindy87 | 1 |
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Normally I would take the Ravens because of the reasons mentioned above, but they're just too banged up for me to back them right now. Their offense isn't good to begin with and now might be missing their best three offensive linemen in this game with LT Stanley and the best guard in football Yanda both doubtful, and RT Wagner questionable after seeing his first practice of the week today on a limited basis.
Baltimore has played a pretty soft schedule and while the Giants look like a mess, they are coming off back to back road prime time games against Minnesota and Green Bay. I think it's a stay away but if I had to pick, I'd take NY -3. |
footballsmart | 3 |
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Late getting these out but want to post them anyway for the sake of record keeping.
Texans +6.5 Jets +7 Bears +4.5 Bills +2 Giants +7.5 I had my worst week overall last week but somehow went 3-2 on my supercontest picks even with the Browns and 49ers blowing their respective covers. Feels like another 3-2 this week. |
jlindy87 | 1 |
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A disappointing 2-3 with my mock supercontest picks last week but still happy with the year so far. 60% had me 1/2 point out of the money last year so I'm shooting for 52-53 this year.
Week 4 Browns +7.5 Falcons +3 Texans -5 49ers +2.5 Rams +8 Week 4 Plays (YTD: 5-1 +390) Browns +7.5 (230/200) The Redskins defense wasn't good to begin with and now they'll be without half of their starting secondary. As we saw with the Saints last year, a bad defense shouldn't be laying many points against anyone. Washington will also have new starters at LG and C. Redskins 2-8 ATS last 10 games as a home favorite. 49ers +3 (230/200) Dallas has had one of the worst run defenses in the league so far this year, giving up 5.0 ypc even though they've played the Giants, Redskins, and Bears so Carlos Hyde could have a big day. That combined with the Cowboys lack of pass rush means Blaine Gabbert shouldn't be a disaster. On the other side it could be tough for Dallas to move the ball. Likely without Dez Bryant, they lack other playmakers in the passing game but will likely struggle to move the ball on the ground as well. The 49ers have been two different teams when playing home and away since the start of 2015. SF allowed just 3.4 ypc at home last year and shut down Todd Gurley in their only home game this season. Add the fact that Dallas could be playing with a completely new left side of the line (La'el Collins on IR, Tyron Smith didn't practice all week) and points could be tough to come by. |
jlindy87 | 1 |
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