Profile | Entries | Thread Author | Posts | Activity |
---|---|---|---|---|
It is a meaningless thread to everyone except maybe a few serious bettors. But based on the response so far, the linemakers have nothing to worry about here. Go back to what works for you.
|
broimapro | 15 |
|
|
Everyone has their own strategy to make as a bettor. I have lost a ton which forced me to pay attention, which led me to start making contrarian bets and start winning. Ultimately, I could care less if any of it is actually scripted or not. But one can take that as an assumption, and employ it in a system or strategy to uncover spot opportunities. Generally, think of this as a way to figure out when to fade the public. Albany (10-17) +1 yesterday vs UMBC (18-10) is a great example. UMBC had won 9 of 10, just beat Vermont who was 21-5, 11-1 conference play and famous for beating Virginia last year in round one of the tournament. No way that line is +1 without movement unless the linemakers had absolute faith in Albany.
|
broimapro | 15 |
|
|
It is not unedited, unscripted though it feels that way and there is a lot of controlled randomness. Sports exist for many reasons, going all the way back to the Coliseum in Rome. Sports entertain the masses, keeps us on the edge of our seats, and commands our attention. In fact, it takes our attention away from all kinds of more important things in life. This translates into big business $$$. But all of that aside, wagering is what has fueled the growth of sports into what it is today. And if you are a bettor, looking to understand what you are seeing, trying to get ahead of what is happening so you can place a bet on the side that ultimately wins (against the spread), then try to think deeply about what is happening *beneath* the surface for yourself. If you don't have the will to win, and just want to wager for fun or entertainment then forget everything I said. |
broimapro | 15 |
|
|
Why are there sports and games at all? There's many answers and reasons. But let's think about this: Popular sports would not exist without betting. Without betting, there'd be little reason to watch. Without motivation to watch, there's no attention, no news coverage, no attendance, no billion-dollar TV contracts, no million-dollar salaries, etc. There's many sports actually with almost no fan base, thus they are under the radar and nearly invisible to the public (and make no money for no one). What about this... sports exist specifically for the purpose of betting. Everything you see, every little detail that happens in a game, affects the outcome for the bettor, right? These games do not happen in a bubble, independent of betting, in a fair competitive match. They are happening because of the action. Now understand the power that each person has in this process. One bettor says it was bad luck. Well people create their own "luck." For today, ask yourselves why would UCF beat SMU 95-48? Is it because of any reason, other than because the bettor can't say no to a large number of free points? The bettor cannot lay -46.5 points. The line knows the future because it was created by the people that have the power. You cannot beat the line until you understand what it really is. |
broimapro | 15 |
|
|
Remember a few things... lines are meant to confuse and/or push you back and forth. Michigan State has not won at Purdue in a long time. Purdue is rolling lately. They have a perfect home record. There's too many reasons why Purdue gets an upset here. Upsets rarely are predicted within the line. So maybe the line move is to fake people into thinking Purdue will win when in reality the line should be like -4.5 Michigan State.
|
AverageAtBest | 11 |
|
|
Manhattan up 20-7 already... line moved from -1.5 to +1 Canisius right before the game. Game just started but it looks like the trap that I was attempting to show you guys. BOL still though.
|
NcaaBBCapper | 32 |
|
|
I have Canisius as a -5.5pt favorite so this line is low to me. Low enough to raise red flags. Statistically and momentum-wise, no way that Manhattan wins this game. I lost as much when I put ML on Rider a couple of weeks ago when Manhattan visited.
Look at the Boxscore for Manhattan's win against St.Peter's: 12-37 FG @ 32.4% 3-14 3PT @ 21.4% So how did they score 57 points? 30-36 FT @ 83.3% It's extremely rare for a team to get that many attempts at the line. 30 of their 57 points came from the line!!! Maybe it was just a game where the refs were whistle-happy??? Um, yeah but explain to me why St. Peter's got to the line only 9 times. They shot 7 for 9 at the line for 77.8% Take away the free throws in that game and the score is: St. Peter's 42-27 I fully expect Canisius to win, but when refs are giving a team 4 to 1 attempts at the FT line to the home team then it changes everything.
|
NcaaBBCapper | 32 |
|
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so. It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly. Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality. Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it. As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.