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I like Cleveland to win outright and sneak into the dismal 6th seed race in the AFC for a couple weeks (before failing, of course). With Baltimore's defensive injuries, the Browns might actually be the better defense in this game! Any time you can take the better D at home getting points, well...
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BigJoe83 | 43 |
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YTD: 12-7
CLEVELAND (+3) over NY Jets
Cleveland has played a brutal schedule and has still managed to go 3-5. Their losses: Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Atlanta. Wins: Cincy, New Orleans, New England. This team is tough on both sides of the ball, the quarterback is emerging, the coach is dynamic and the homefield advantage is strong. The jets play their second straight road game and are coming off an emotional overtime comeback win. This strikes me as one of those games where public perception is just behind the times. The Browns are good. Repeat. The Browns are good. In fact, I think they’re the better team in this contest. This is the week they make the leap from ‘frisky bad team capable of an upset,’ to playoff contender.
Minnesota (-1) over CHICAGO
Brett Favre is bad but Jay Cutler is Jay Cutler bad. Also, Chicago’s defense is horribly overrated and the Vikings’ drama is such public noise that they’re now a bit underrated. Everybody is writing off their season now (and I have been fading them all year) but they are far from out of it and are still the more talented side here. Plus, did I mention that Jay Cutler is the quarterback for the Bears?
Tennessee (PK) over MIAMI
The Randy Moss experiment will work in Tennessee. Here’s why: Randy Moss is a crazy person. He’s petty and he’s spiteful. When he was a rookie, he wasn’t shy about how much he wanted to embarrass the teams that didn’t draft him. And now, he’s been castoff by his second team in a month and been called a ‘cancer’ and a bad teammate by every talking head in the NFL talk show universe. They’ve talked incessantly about his subpar stats this season but always forget to factor in one large detail. That is, those stats are the stats of a man who simply wasn’t trying. The guy’s a loon. But now he’s a motivated loon. And he’s still lightning fast…
Philadelphia (-3) over WASHINGTON
This line feels low. A bit too much love for Washington due to their win in Philly as well as the home dog on Monday night angle.
New England (+5) over PITTSBURGH
This one is laughable. Thank you to the public for continuing to overvalue this mediocre Steelers team and create lines like this. |
beherenow | 5 |
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Posting record YTD: 9-5
Don't have time for detailed write-ups this week but wanted to post my plays anyway because I'm gonna go 6-0 and want it to be documented! BUFFALO (+3) over Chicago Buffalo is better on both sides of the ball and is getting points on a neutral field. Does this even need a write up? SEATTLE (+7) over NY Giants This is way too many points regardless of who's playing QB for Seattle. Look for Seattle's defense (and crowd) to keep them in this one and force Eli to throw a few picks. Tampa Bay (+9) over ATLANTA way too much love for Atlanta. I think Atlanta is where Green Bay was at right before the Washington loss. That is, they are being hyped as a super bowl contender but they're probably still a year away. New England (-3.5) over CLEVELAND A lot of love for Cleveland as an upset pick but I'm not buying. The defense is good, but they have let games slip away late and that does not bode well against Belichek and his ability to make adjustments in the second half. DETROIT (+4.5) over NY Jets Fade the Jets. OAKLAND (PK) over Kansas City Oakland has been dominant at home and this is the franchises biggest game since the Tampa Bay super bowl. I'm selling the Chiefs on the road. Especially in this spot. |
beherenow | 1 |
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4-2, another solid Sunday.
Let's get it tonight. Go Texans! |
beherenow | 15 |
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Line update:
Just locked in on Tennessee +6!!! |
beherenow | 15 |
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Quote Originally Posted by sixers030409: SD sucks yet they are ranked 1st in total offense and 1st in total defense(yardage wise)... Interesting theory you have there. Um...take the Arizona game out of that equation and those stats don't look so pretty. San Diego is the San Francisco of the AFC: everybody keeps waiting for them to be good, but they simply aren't. Shed your preseason expectations in favor of the cold hard fact that the 2010 San Diego Chargers are a losing side. |
bets2win | 113 |
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Quote Originally Posted by BigNiner: Yeah, this is original logic. The same logic that everybody on planet fucking Earth will is using and will continue to use by Monday night. Houston wins this game SU...this game is going to be a "true" public bloodbath. Couldn't agree more. The logic behind backing the Colts here is rooted in myths and exaggerations about the prowess of Manning and his ability to get it done by himself. I understand that it is easy to buy into great athletes and great individual performers, and it's always going to be the public's tendency to back the superstar. People want Manning and the Colts to be more than who they are. Which, in my opinion, is an above average team with an excellent quarterback. That is all. This is NOT a juggernaut. Texans are the stronger, healthier side and they proved in week 1 that they have figured the colts out (if nothing else) and are no longer intimidated by Manning. Texans ML. Book it. |
bets2win | 113 |
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Quote Originally Posted by masterkush: At least you have some clarity about SD and how horrible they are Yeah man, these things are funny. We have season upon season of evidence that success DOES NOT always transfer from one year to the next, regardless of personell. And yet, the Chargers continue to be favorites every week despite the fact that every shred of evidence about this team points to them being below average. At some point, losing teams are losing teams. I said that about Dallas last week and San Diego is in the same boat. We are betting on (or in my case against) the 2010 San Diego Chargers...It means nothing that they were good in 08 and 09. |
beherenow | 15 |
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Forgot to post my record:
YTD (posting only) 5-2 |
beherenow | 15 |
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Hey Bets,
With you on Houston. They are my play of the week. All their inconsistencies aside, they showed in week 1 that they are finished getting pushed around by the Colts. They will come to play and the Colts are WAY too banged up at receiver to exploit Houston's biggest weakness. BOL man. CW |
bets2win | 113 |
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Tampa Bay (+3) over ARIZONA Don’t see why Arizona
would be favored over any team regardless of home field. They beat a rookie QB in his first start (Bradford), the
Raiders on a missed chip shot and the Saints without scoring any offensive touchdowns. If they were 0-6 where would this line
be? Tampa
-1? Pick ‘em? Certainly not -3. Lots of value here. Tampa
Bay has played two public sides
this season (NO and Pitt) and lost big, therefore lowering their stock. Public has also seen Arizona
upset super bowl champs in their one spotlight game. There’s also some irrational lingering love
for the cards because they’ve been good in the past. Tampa’s shakiness at home last week is also a
factor in this line, but I was impressed with the way they came back in that
game. The rams have a good defense and
Freeman made plays when it mattered. Wouldn't ever count on Max Hall or Derek Anderson to do the same.
Tennessee (+4) over SAN DIEGO There is just so much fade value on San Diego right now. The idea that they are good is ENTIRELY based upon results from the past few seasons. Their performance this season has given zero indication that this is a good football team and yet they continue to lay points against winning sides. Green Bay (+6) over NY JETS This is a tough one with Green Bay primed for a let down after an emotional win over their bitter rival on national TV, but I’m convinced the Jets are a fade. There is a lot of talk about them being the best team in the NFL right now and that might be true. However, it is irrelevant because this is one of those years where there isn’t a strong favorite and any team anointed as such is the product of the media’s desire to categorize things. So if you wanna call the Jets the best team in football—I’m fine with that- but that doesn’t make them 6 points better than Green Bay. This is a dog-fight season and this line is too high considering Green Bay’s offensive potential. This line should be 3.5 but if that were the case the public would be all over NYJ.
NEW ORLEANS (-1) over Pittsburgh New Orleans has
certainly struggled, but the is a side that plays to it’s competition. They will come to play against an overrated Pittsburgh
team that opened as a favorite on their home turf. I love the fade on Roethlisberger here, as
the NOLA crowd should make things quite difficult for a man playing just his 3rd
football game of the season. Pitt is
really leaning on it’s defense here. If New
Orleans has anything left in the tank this season,
they handle business here. BOL everyone. CW |
beherenow | 15 |
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Houston (+5.5) over INDIANAPOLIS I’m sorry but Houston
was the better team BEFORE the Dallas Clark injury. Their trouncing of the Colts in week 1 had a
very strong “we’re done losing to you guys” feel to it. With all of the injuries to the receiving
corps, it will be difficult for Manning to take advantage of Houston’s
biggest weakness (the secondary). Texans
ML. (Play of the week) CINCINNATI (-2) over Miami Chad Henne is due for a really bad game and I like Cincy’s
chances of stopping the running game and forcing them to throw. Bengals are sneakily approaching ‘so
overrated that they’re now kind of underrated’ status. They are easy to label overrated because their
quarterback has no arm and used to be good and their two ‘star’ wideouts peaked
6 years ago. But the defense is strong
and the offense has been good enough to compete. Also, Miami
is a bit overrated coming in. In the
past few years Miami has been a
tough matchup because of the wildcat.
The threat of the wildcat opened things up for Henne last year and his
numbers looked really good. So far this
season, the wildcat has been useless and seldom employed and Chad Henne has
looked REALLY shaky. This team caught Green
Bay and Minnesota
at the right time and pulled off two very flashy public wins. Also, their dismantling by New
England on Monday night was quickly overshadowed by the Moss trade
and didn’t really affect Miami’s
stock the way it should have. Combine
that with their close loss to an extremely overrated Pitt team last week and
the Dolphins are chock full of false expectations. Buffalo (+7.5) over KANSAS CITY I love getting over a touchdown with a team that can score points through the air. I also love fading teams that lay 7.5 points and start Matt Cassel. Look, I like the chiefs. The running game is dynamic, the defense comes to play every week and the crowd is top notch. But the quarterback is TERRIBLE and this hasn’t really been exposed yet. I smell a slight let down for KC’s defense against a frisky dog with momentum and nothing to lose and if Cassel is forced to throw it…you get the picture. Love it even more coming off an inflated win over one of the league’s worst teams. |
beherenow | 15 |
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Line adjustments:
LAC +3 MEM -2 Bos -4 |
beherenow | 6 |
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One more:
PHILADELPHIA (+7.5) over Miami -0-82 ATS? |
beherenow | 6 |
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NY/ Tor over 211
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beherenow | 6 |
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2-0, nice way to start the season!
That Boston game was too easy. Here's today's action (10/27/10): MEMPHIS (-3.5) over Atlanta - Love fading the Hawks on the road and love Memphis to handle business at home on opening night. (Play of the Day) LA CLIPPERS (+2.5) over Portland - Portland on back to back and Clips coming in vastly underrated. I like the Clippers as a playoff team and a very strong home-cover all year. Boston (-3.5) over CLEVELAND -Boston has the look. I'm riding them for a few weeks. BOL |
beherenow | 6 |
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10/25:
BOSTON (PK) over Miami Fade the Heat. All. Year. Long. This line is ridiculous. Lebron James is one of the most amazing athletes on the planet, but he's just not a WINNER. That is why he chose Miami, and I commend him for that. I think this team will be really good eventually, but will be obviously be over-valued all season. That is especially true now, with the team banged up and the Celtics fired up to show everyone that they're still the Eastern conference champs. This one feels like free money... Houston (+7.5) over LA LAKERS Always fade the Lakers early in the season laying points against a scrappy opponent out to prove itself against the champs. Love Houston here. |
beherenow | 6 |
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Locked in on NYG @ +3.5 (-110)
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beherenow | 13 |
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Quote Originally Posted by THEMUGG: I bet a lot of these guys were in diapers or kindergarten when Farve started his career........easy to bash him at the end. Start Tavaris Jackson for a few games & see how you feel about Favre then...... At this point, I think Tavaris might give them a better chance to win. At least he wouldn't try and force it and let the running game do it's thing. And actually, it's been pretty easy to bash him throughout his career. Are you forgetting that he has only 1 super bowl win despite being crowned the MVP three times and being on a contending team every year??? Overrated does not mean that he is a bad player. But there are a lot of people that consider him one of the best QB's of all time and that just ridiculous. I have been fading this man successfully for big money in big games for over a decade. Are there any other 'legendary' quarterbacks who you would feel comfortable blindly fading in a big game? Maybe Manning...maybe. But even he has as many rings as Favre and never had a defense like the ones Favre has had in Green Bay and Minnesota. |
jmb9 | 140 |
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Quote Originally Posted by glewis461: I guess you did not pick up on the sarcasm. Well, I had a feeling there was a bit of sarcasm due to the smiley face but I was confused by the fact that you called it a no-play. Forgive me, it's early and I smoke a lot of weed... |
teddyp | 27 |
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