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Quote Originally Posted by utfootball4: A team that missed 1000 free throws in a championship game - CAN'T TRUST THEM!! MINNY BY 3++... Against Tennessee they shot 71.4% from the line. Take away Dendry who went 1-5 from the line and they went 19 of 23 from the line, or 82.6%. (and that was on the road, FT shooting statistically is usually better for most teams at home) And if you are worried about fouls late and MTU missing free throws, well they give the ball to Citron who is a 90.4% FT shooter. He made 4 for 4 in the last 30 seconds of the Tennessee game to secure the game going Over the posted total. |
anticareer | 42 |
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Quote Originally Posted by wtfe: well you lost points with me in your write up for abbreviating MTSU as MTU... ha, well, ESPN also calls it MTU when they abbreviate it: https://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/ (look at the scores row near the top: MTU / Minn) Not sure what everyone's opening number was, I saw 3.5 last night and today I saw 3. Numbers change all the time so maybe it did open at 3, moved to 3.5, move to 3, etc... Look at the UMass line yesterday. I saw it open at 6.5, go to 6, go to 7.5, go to 8, go to 7.5 so depending on what time you looked you'd have a different view. And you should never bet on a game solely because of the line move. It was just one of several points on why I like MTU. Adding first half Under in Butler/Pitt of 59 points. I think Butler will dictate tempo which is a slow down game. I see Pitt having some shaky shooting to start the game as they were getting used to play at home. The game itself is tough, at first I liked Butler, but in looking at Pitt's performance through their year they were 8-8 on the road, and a lot of the road games they played pretty close to some decent teams, so no play on the game for me, might take whoever is losing at half with the second half line as I think this will be close in the end. Not sure what everyone uses for looking at this year's results, but I'm a fan of Sportsbook.com's statfox. If you view the full game spreads at Sportsbook you can click on a team, it will open up a page showing how that team did all year against the spread and with the total. You can glean some good high level insight from that. |
anticareer | 42 |
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Long time reader of Covers, very long time gambler. The past two months I've been on fire so figured it may benefit others if I shared some of my insights/picks while my hot streak is going.
One thing I think is pretty lame is people who just post their picks. And a lot of people do it. What is the point? If you want to share a pick, share some insight into it. Tonight I'm on MTU. A few reasons I'm on this side. 1. Both teams showed me in their last game that they are excited to be there and they want to win (Miami-FL looked like they'd rather be in bed and they got their azz kicked, and Tenn looked very flat). I'd give the edge here though to MTU because a small school playing in the post season means a little bit more than it does to a Big 10 team. And they will be pumped to play in front of their home crowd. 2. Home court advantage. If you saw the Miami-FL game you saw how pathetic their arena was, barely any fans, and very quiet (granted they were down big from the opening tip). If you are on the MTU campus this is probably the most exciting thing that has happened all year long. Expect the game to be packed and the crowd to be crazy. Will definitely be a different dynamic that Minny will have to face versus their last game out. It's also can throw a team off who is used to playing in big stadiums when they go to a smaller school's stadium. 3. Minny on short rest B2B road games. They haven't played B2B road games on 2 days turnaround time all year long (I'm not counting neutral site games). Eventually it catches up to you. UMass looked horrible for the first 27 minutes of yesterday's game, but they caught their second win and they are a fast paced team and were able to pull it out. Drexel also went away from their inside play and settled for jumpers. MTU attacked the hoop a ton in the game verse Tennessee. If you keep attacking the hoop good things will happen. 4. Fade the line move. Yesterday the spread went in the favor of UMass and Oregon (meaning the books were taking more bets on Drexel and Washington). Today the line has slipped a little from -3.5 to -3 (at my book) meaning more Minny bets are coming in. The bookmakers don't make lines based on what is truly a fair line, they make lines based on what they think will get them 50/50 action. A fair line in this game would be 4.5 or 5. MTU - 3 |
anticareer | 42 |
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