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TB is the second worst team in the NFL in my Power Rankings. The've ran the ball pretty well, but thats about it. Mike Glennon is average at best and may not have his full compliment of receivers. So I wouldn't bank on him taking advantage of a banged up secondary on the road. Especially with the that awful pass blocking of the Bucs.
Even if the Bucs found ways to put drives together, Their pass rush, or lack there of, and are pathetic pass coverage will be eaten alive by Big Ben and a formidable passing attack. The Steelers also have top-notch rushing attack and that will be to much for TB to handle. PIT & TB both played the Panthers, with very different results. PIT 37-19 CAR, TB 14-20 CAR. TB was actually favored in that game vs. CAR by -5.5, which is laughable! They were also favorites vs. STL, losing that game straight up as well. They only got +6.5 when they were badly overmatched in ATL. So TB getting only +7.5 on the road, with that swiss cheese D vs. one of the leagues best offense (6.7 Yard Per Play), shows that TB is still getting overvalued on their way to 0-4 ATS. PIT -7.5
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Here are some high percentage prop bets: Broncos' 3 longest drives this year came in the postseason vs SD & NE, lasting 7:01, 7:50 & 7:52. DEN dominated time of possession (over 35 min) in both wins. The Seahawks postseason offense has been erratic. Denver Wins Time of possession -115
Denver's offense forced 14 pass interference calls, tied for most in the league & also drew 9 defensive holding penalties..another NFL high. Seattle's D was flagged for pass interference 13 times...tied for the most in NFL & whistled for defensive holding 11 times…again, tied for the most! Denvers was also one of the least penalized offenses in the NFL. Safe to say with Seattles' aggressive style & both team's penalty data, Denver will get more calls. SEAHAWKS HAVE MORE PENALTY YARDAGE -120 WR Decker has a nice matchup on the left side vs Cover 3 Zone or vs Maxwell 1 on 1. Decker Over 61.5 Yards & Over 4.5 REC TE Julius Thomas could get lit up on a seam route. But he'll have plenty of opportunities to make plays. J. Thomas Over 50.5 Yards & Over 4.5 REC WR Doug Baldwin will continue his trend of being Wilson's favorite most reliable target. Baldwin OVER 40.5 Rec yards RB Montee Ball has productively been cutting into Moreno's snaps. I Like that trend to continue. Ball OVER 32.5 rush yards RB Moreno will have some opportunities as a receiver out of the backfield vs Seahawks cover 3 . Moreno OVER 24.5 Rec Yards WR Harvin will be featured in the passing game including bubble screens to get him into open space. Harvin OVER 45 Rec yards I'll take (this season's) QB Peyton Manning OVER 286.5 passing yards... anytime, vs anyone, anywhere! Which explains why I'm betting it here! RB Lynch is not know as a receiver, but against Denver, there will be opportunities. OVER 13.5 Rec yards OVER 1.5 Rec Best of luck to all! |
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These are two of the very best teams in the league and their contrasting styles make for an incredibly intriguing matchup. Both #1 seeds, Seattle boasting (statistically) the best defense in the NFL. Denver will field (statistically) the best offense by a team and quarterback in NFL history. So where to start... Seattle had the easiest schedule vs pocket QBs out of any team in the NFL! That truly helped their defensive numbers. At home SEA lost to Palmer (pocket passer) and Beat Kaep (30th passing attack) twice, They also beat Brees twice (who was awful on the road in '13: 12 TDs -9 INTs vs 27 TDs -3 INTs at home), and beat perhaps the worst collection of pocket QBs ever assembled; Henne, Fitzpatrick, Glennon, Ponder, Clemens...YIKES…Every D looked good vs those backup-quality QBs! On the road the Seahawks pass D beat Matt Ryan (with no Julio Jones and a hobbled Roddy White), Cam Newton (29th passing O), Schaub (who was dreadful in 2013 ), Palmer (split), Clemens, & Eli (who was atrocious this season & led the NFL in INTs). They lost to Kaep...and the one legit pocket passer Seattle faced on the road ALL SEASON was Andrew Luck, who LIT 'EM UP during a 4th QT comeback...in obvious passing situations! Don't get me wrong, The Seahawks DO have a good defense & secondary...but their schedule was so easy vs lousy pocket passers, they became a bit overrated. Truth is, Seattle plays a TON of Cover 3 (zone coverage) and that bodes well for Denver. The Seahawks D did not face an Offense, QB or receiving core like this ALL YEAR. Denvers' outstanding offensive play starts up front with an excellent O-Line and of course a brilliant quarterback that exploits softs spots in zone-coverage, burns teams that Blitz and picks Defenses apart pre-snap! Especially D's that repeatedly run the same formation (like Seattle's cover 3). Edge Denver. On the flip, Denver gets a pretty good amount of pressure on QBs with a stout and underrated front seven. This does not bode well for Seattle, as they have struggled with pass protection all year including in the playoffs. Denvers' front 7 also gives the Broncos an very good Run D that's held teams to 64.5 yards a game on the ground in the postseason. Seattle's strength is running the ball, but their best chance to beat Denver is to pass on them. Russell Wilson’s passing game has declined however, completing only 58% of his passes and barely topping the 200-yard mark just twice in his last six games. Manning-led Broncos teams are 12-2 straight up and 10-4 against the spread in games they held opponents to 200 or less passing yards. Edge Denver As for "Defense Wins Championships"...that was very true in yester-year...Teams with the better D have won 39 of 47 Super Bowls. Unfortunately for tradition...rules & times have changed. Teams with the better D are just 2-5 straight up & 1-6 against the spread the last 7 Super Bowls. The trend is now, teams with the hot QBs win championships. See last year's SB for instance: San Francisco and their #1 D vs Baltimore's 27th ranked D...with a hot Flacco. I'll take Denver's embarrassing array of weapons on offense with a hot Manning! DEN-2 Follow me on Twitter @vin_vegas |
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PROP BETS
Joe Flacco over 34.5 passing attempts Joe Flacco over 242 passing yards Ray Rice over 99.5 total yards ( rushing and receiving) Anquan Boldin over 5 receptions Torrey Smith longest reception over 29.5 yards Ray Rice under 17.5 rushing attempts Total number of Baltimore players to make a reception over 6.5 49ers combined rushing total over 154.5 Kaepernick under 28.5 passing attempts Kaepernick over 6.5 rushing attempts Kaepernick over 48.5 rushing yards Total number of San Francisco players to make a reception under 6.5 Michael Crabtree over 76.5 receiving yards Michael Crabtree over 5.5 receptions Vernon Davis over 46.5 receiving yards Patrick Willis over 7.5 tackles Combined quarterback stats: over 9.5 touchdown passes +Sacks + interceptions combined by both teams. Good luck to all! |
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Baltimore played very well verse the classic pocket quarterbacks in Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. However, the Raven did struggle versus the two mobile quarterbacks they faced this year. Losing to Michael Vick and Robert Griffin. They struggled when those quarterbacks made plays outside of the pocket, whether passing or running. Baltimore's kink in the armor has been their run defense. The Ravens have given up 128.3 rushing yards a game in the last 3 . The 49ers have racked up an eye-popping 246 rushing yards per game in their two playoff games. It starts with the offensive line. They have been dominant at the point of attack. Baltimore will struggle with Kaepernick's speed and the pistol shotgun formation which features the run-option that Kaepernick orchestrates with uncanny efficiency. Frank Gore, who got plenty of rest during the regular season; is now getting workhorse like duties in the playoffs and has been very effective. LaMichael James adds a nice complement of a change of pace back. Both running backs have been the beneficiary of kaepernick's great decision making in the run-option offense and the presence Kaepernick in keeping defenders home and honest. I believe the running game will be so effective that it will open up the pass. Colin Kaepernick's speed and elusiveness outside of the pocket and his ability to make very accurate throws on the run will prove to be too difficult for the Ravens defense to stop. Crabtree and Davis will be a handful for the Ravens in 1 on 1 coverage. And they will not able to sacrifice attention from the run offense in order to double team them.
San Francisco has the best defense Baltimore has faced in a long time. They have the best book-ends in the NFL with Smith & Smith. They have the most athletic linebackers in the NFL and a strong secondary. San Francisco D hits hard and plays physical. Flacco has been on fire with 8 touchdowns and no interceptions in the playoffs . I expect him to have a decent game, I do not believe he will be able to dominate it. Rice is very talented as well and will be able to make plays... But he's going against a very stingy run defense, strong defensive line and fast ,athletic, hard hitting linebackers in Patrick Willis and Navorro Bowman. Safety Donte Whitner is also a presence against the run and in pass coverage. Kicker David Akers for the 49ers is my only concern. If he goes 1 for 3 in field goal attempts, I would not be surprised. Which could keep San Francisco from pulling away in this game and coasting to a victory . San Francisco 49ers 24-21 49ers money line -150 |
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San Francisco was counting their lucky stars after seeing Seattle lose in the waning seconds... For it was Just a few games back and their last road game that San Francisco went into Seattle and got taken behind the woodshed. Instead they get to play a team that struggles against the run and struggles with athletic quarterbacks. Atlanta however, did manage to go 3-1 verse those quarterbacks beating Cam Newton, Russell Wilson and RG 3... Although, none of those victories were easy.
Atlanta was fantastic in the first 3 quarters building a 27-7 lead, but they were so awful in the 4th, on both sides of the ball; that it makes bettors salivate at the thought of that team playing the likes of San Francisco. The 49ers are a top notch running team with an athletic, fast quarterback and they happen to be a defensive juggernaut. SAN FRANCISCO 27-24
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According to ESPN Stats, at the moment before Joe Flacco severely under threw the 70 yard touchdown pass, the Broncos had a 97.2 percent chance of winning. But the Broncos completely came apart at the seams and let Jacoby Jones get behind them on a prevent defense with 31 seconds left in the game. Flacco's throw was awful, which gave the safety a play on the ball. However, Safety Rahim Moore had an embarrassing miss judgement on a pass that was so under thrown, the receiver had to practically stop to catch it. Ray Lewis danced and said "God was on the Raven side"! Youmans wrote that is "an invaluable betting intangible that we did not know before the game!" he also wrote that God would need to be on their side again for them to beat the Patriots and I would have to agree.
Let's start with the Ravens run defense. It has not been very good . They were fortunate to have played Indianapolis that has a very below average running attack/ running backs in the first game of the playoffs. Followed by the Broncos who had their two top running backs injured for the game, leaving Scat back Ronnie Hillman to carry the load. They will not have that luxury this week as they go against a formidable 2 headed attack of Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen. Not to mention Tom Brady and his passing arsenal and the nightmare that Shane Vereen could create for the slow footed Ray Lewis as a receiver out of the backfield. NEW ENGLAND 37-28
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Quote Originally Posted by Vin-Vegas: DENVER 31-13
Baltimore is not a good road team. The Ravens haven’t been sharp losing and failing to cover in four of their last six games. Baltimore’s defensive isn’t close to being elite anymore. Broncos have a superior quarterback, defense, special teams, while also owning a huge situational edge being rested at home while Baltimore travels on a short week. |
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Baltimore is not a good road team. The Ravens haven’t been sharp losing and failing to cover in four of their last six games. Baltimore’s defensive isn’t close to being elite anymore. Broncos have a superior quarterback, defense, special teams, while also owning a huge situational edge being rested at home while Baltimore travels on a short week.
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Quote Originally Posted by cashaholic: THE BRONCOS WERE NEVER 1-3 AND THEY WERE NEVER 50 TO 1! AND I CALL BULLSHIT ON YOUR BET AMOUNT BECAUSE EVERYTHING ELSE YOU SAID WAS A LIE!
Denver is winning this game SU I wouldn't bet on the spread but. Have a 50-1 future bet riding from when they went 1-3 ...odds makers jumped the gun and I slapped a quich 250 bucks on it Manning has a chance to win the Super Bowl this home home field at Denver will be the advantage in this match up Baltimore stands no chance of winning |
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