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The post positions for Preakness 2017 have been drawn and nine horses
will take on Derby winner Always Dreaming in Baltimore. Is there an
upset on the horizon or will it be deju vu all over again at Pimlico on
May 20? PACE MAKES THE RACE The pace should be on the tepid side with
ALWAYS DREAMING and CONQUEST MO MONEY on or near the lead, followed by
CLASSIC EMPIRE. The only other horse with positional speed is CLOUD
COMPUTING. Post position is not nearly as important as it is in the
Derby. The key is where the pace horses draw. ALWAYS DREAMING drew post 4
and is the inside speed. CLASSIC EMPIRE is right next to the Derby
winner in post 5 and will likely track his main rival throughout.
CONQUEST MO MONEY drew post 10 and figures to either go to the lead or
sit and pounce on the outside. CLOUD COMPUTING projects a ground
saving tactical trip from post 2. Also, if any horses were compromised
by post position and troubles trips in the Derby, there is a good chance
that they will perform much better in Baltimore. Lookin At Lucky comes
to mind. CLASSIC EMPIRE fits this category. If the Preakness runs
according to the projected race shape, ALWAYS DREAMING will sit the same
trip as he did in the Derby and that could spell trouble for his
opponents. TODAY’S RACING DIGEST SPEED FIGURE ANALYSIS 1.
MULTIPLIER (30-1): His overall numbers show improvement but his FIRE
Number dipped from 92 to 90 in the Illinois Derby. He appears to be
getting better but seems a cut below these. A minor award is possible. 2. CLOUD COMPUTING (12-1): TRD gave him a career best FIRE Number and
Final Rating in the Wood Memorial. Other TRD numbers shows him peaking
in the Gotham. He is lightly raced (3 starts) with positional speed and a
ground saving trip is projected. He probably earns a new top in the
Preakness based on projected trip and time between starts and it is a
good sign that Castellano chose him over Gunnevera. He can definitely be
used in exotics. 3. HENCE (20-1): Sunland Derby TRD numbers by far
his best. He is a horse with seven starts and only one fast race and
that is a big concern. Use underneath if at all. 4. ALWAYS DREAMING (4-5): TRD awarded him triple digit
FIRE Numbers in Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby. His Digest Pace
Ratings put him out in front early and he might not look back as the
fastest horse in the paper race. I picked him on top in the Florida
Derby and Kentucky Derby and he looks like a winner again. 5.
CLASSIC EMPIRE (3-1): TRD numbers indicate the BC Juvenile was easily
his best effort. TRD did give him a 140 CPR in Arkansas Derby and BC
Juvenile. His Derby trouble is known to everyone but the Preakness is
his third race in five weeks and he was faster as a juvenile. Actually,
he was only fast enough to win a race like this once in eight starts and
that was the aforementioned BC Juvenile. A clean break should lead to a
nice tactical trip but Always Dreaming has been faster in 2017. 6.
GUNNEVERA (15-1): Peaked in the FOY with a 100 FIRE Number. He is a
decent late runner but that FOY was at 8.5f and his 9-10f numbers
dipped. He can rally for a share. 7. TERM OF ART (30-1): TRD gave him a
96 FIRE in the SA Derby but their other numbers say the San Felipe was
his best effort. The plodder adds blinkers and will be passing tiring
rivals. Anybody can run 4th or 5th so include him way underneath. 8. SENIOR INVESTMENT (30-1): TRD numbers show a much better effort in his late running victory the Lexington. He is an improving closer but needs a pace meltdown and the paper race says that won’t happen. Minor award possible. 9. LOOKIN AT LEE (10-1): Career best TRD numbers in the
Kentucky Derby but he looks like one of those Preakness sucker plays.
Ran great in the Derby on a wet track but had a super inside trip and
probably won’t duplicate it from an outer post on a fast track two weeks
later. 10. CONQUEST MO MONEY (15-1): Improved his TRD numbers in
all five outings. The versatile, improving early/pressing type will give
his rider options from the outside post and he has had ample time to
recover from his last and might earn a new top. Definitely a contender
but Always Dreaming is the proven class with speed. If you would like to receive Free Digest Preakness Stakes Race Sheets click here |
TRD | 3 |
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ANALYSIS: There is no shortage of speed signed up, as we have assigned four F’s in PER Column 7 and the Fractional Charting (aka ‘the paper race’) projects five horses across the track around the turn. No Tricks for Jack is one of them and she looked good winning a claimproof sprint when returned to the Peter Miller barn June 25. She ran off three consecutive wins to start the year, so repeating wins wouldn’t be a first and she should get a good trip drafting the frontrunners. So, too, should Always a Chance, who is double dropped in class by Mullins. She does well on paper. Two Step Flor and Prettyhotprincess were last spotted vs. better on the grass and are making comeback start #3. They are both multiple winners on dirt and may be sitting on ‘go’. She Hums has her price cut off the claim and she’s a 3-yo facing older, but she does well on paper and went 2-for-2 sprinting on dirt at Santa Anita. Peppy Bolly raced closer to the pace when matched up vs. ‘Jack June 25, but that may have been used as a tightener for this. She can beat her odds. CLOSERS: Fastest in the stretch in recent races at or near this distance have been: Two Step Flor :24.9 – Adriatic Skye :25.0 – Sweetest Secret :25.1 [/Quote]
Three horses tie for the “win” in the Fractional Charting. This suggests the race could be a wide-open betting event. Look at the toteboard and wager on the higher odds of these three highlighted runners. https://fractionalcharting.com/ |
TRD | 3 |
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ANALYSIS: There is no shortage of speed signed up, as we have assigned four F’s in PER Column 7 and the Fractional Charting (aka ‘the paper race’) projects five horses across the track around the turn. No Tricks for Jack is one of them and she looked good winning a claimproof sprint when returned to the Peter Miller barn June 25. She ran off three consecutive wins to start the year, so repeating wins wouldn’t be a first and she should get a good trip drafting the frontrunners. So, too, should Always a Chance, who is double dropped in class by Mullins. She does well on paper. Two Step Flor and Prettyhotprincess were last spotted vs. better on the grass and are making comeback start #3. They are both multiple winners on dirt and may be sitting on ‘go’. She Hums has her price cut off the claim and she’s a 3-yo facing older, but she does well on paper and went 2-for-2 sprinting on dirt at Santa Anita. Peppy Bolly raced closer to the pace when matched up vs. ‘Jack June 25, but that may have been used as a tightener for this. She can beat her odds. CLOSERS: Fastest in the stretch in recent races at or near this distance have been: Two Step Flor :24.9 – Adriatic Skye :25.0 – Sweetest Secret :25.1
Three horses tie for the “win” in the Fractional Charting. This suggests the race could be a wide-open betting event. Look at the toteboard and wager on the higher odds of these three highlighted runners. https://fractionalcharting.com/ |
TRD | 3 |
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