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These lines are dead this close to gametime on Bovada and 5dimes as well, any of these that were -115 are now at least -170 and mostly -190 or more, if your even getting the original number to begin with. Player props not enough volume to hold lines for long for sure
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thepropkings | 715 |
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Definitely a poor enough 3rd Q to start to look suspicious...the Donaghy stuff was a full decade ago now right?
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tassso | 7 |
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I have some insane juice for some of these, Howard is at -170, Jackson -160; why don't you post the juice your paying as well? Though I presume its quite variable book to book on these props, would still be nice to know
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thepropkings | 715 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Werker: I put a ton of time into making these picks, and I'm sorry there isn't more of a write up for a lot of them. This is much more of a writeup and reasoned out thought process than most people put out, your good on that my man
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Werker | 11 |
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Quote Originally Posted by PlusEV: Endings like that are why I hate point spreads too. Boston up 9 with the ball and was going to run out the clock, Brooklyn fouled, Boston makes 1 free throw, Brooklyn hits 3 at the buzzer. Congrats to all who got Boston -6.5 or Brooklyn +7.5. I went with Boston moneyline and am glad I did instead of the spread! Something similar happened in SA and DAL tonight too. The last minute or so damn near started to get suspicious to me; I've never seen a team try as hard as SA did to do absolutely everything they could to avoid covering 6.5. Anybody else seen anything like that in a professional setting?
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ASmartMan | 9 |
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Right I understand that, but I meant more is that a good idea to do so when the opportunity arises? What is the math behind either hedging there, or letting my current bet on VGK stand on its own? Surely at some point it is valuable to reduce my bankroll variance at the expense of potential profit/expected value, but what is a general formula behind that, without accounting for personal preferences on risk/reward.
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Rahzel525 | 7 |
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I wasn't sure where to put this but wanted to get more input because I'm not quite sure I fully understand these situations:
Lets say tonight I have VGK +192 for $200 at NYR, and after the 1st period its 2-1 VGK. NYR is now available in-game at +100. Why should I not put $200 to win $200 on NYR? If I do nothing I am risking $200 to win $384, if I take the NYR bet then I am reducing my overall risk to $0 to win $184. Why is this hedge/freeroll not superior? I have the same 'profit' to make either way, but taking NYR in this scenario means I can reduce my long-term variance, is that correct? I
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Rahzel525 | 7 |
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That Dragic 22.5 points seems like a pipedream, Bookmaker has under 22.5 at -264 and Bovada has it set at 20.5.
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PropWizard | 84 |
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I have no clue how to read the Google doc, are there any plays today or series starting tomorrow?
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McShady | 85 |
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Quote Originally Posted by mindtides: 3/29 NBA[706] PORTLAND -8½-110 NHL[63] SAN JOSE EV Why did you pick Portland tonight? They are under .500...I haven't looked through all 11 pages but did you just get a bit more liberal with your picks?
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mindtides | 273 |
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Any lean on Royals/Yankees besides the under? I am going tonight and would like some action.
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bodio | 89 |
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Quote Originally Posted by bodio: Verlander went 8 strong innings in a 95 degree weather a couple of starts ago. It's not impossible. Either way, even if these guys go 5/6 innings, SD has one of the best bullpens out there and Padres' offense sucks. I would argue that Verlander is on a different level than off-and-on Zambrano and anybody on the Astro's roster. I'm not saying your leans/bets are wrong, you know more about this than do I. I'm sure it will end up a 3-2 game. :) |
bodio | 166 |
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Quote Originally Posted by bodio: You'd be surprised. These are professional athletes we're talking about here. Splash some cold water in between innings, and they should be good to go! Professional athlete or not, pitching in 120 degree heat index weather will limit you to 5-6 IP max. It is indeed weather that can kill you if you don't stay incredibly hydrated, and these guys aren't just standing around out there, the pitchers that is. You saw what it did to Roy Halladay, came out after like 4 IP just because 'it's fucking hot'. |
bodio | 166 |
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Yup, I hit the over 187.5 pre game and had in-game at under 198 at -115 sometime in the mid 1st half I believe. Also had under 94.5 for 2nd half which hit.
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stevewolve | 6 |
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Quote Originally Posted by BigYD: I feel there is favoritism in this game. Refs are calling every weak foul committed by mem and none on Okc am i wrong? Yes, every game in the NBA is rigged and nobody has ever found out over the thousands of games played for the past 50 years. Maybe you are biased, do you have any money on Memphis in this game? Do you think maybe referees that are the best of the best and don't get to the NBA without years and years of games done in high school and college that are all analyzed for 'favoritism' and possible 'point-shaving' before ever getting to do 1 NBA game know a little more than you who is watching the game on TV and has rudimentary knowledge of the game? |
RahstahMan | 2529 |
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-5 at BookMaker as well. By the way, I don't know why that hofil guy quoted the 2nd half over, that's from April 17th...
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RahstahMan | 2529 |
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Why does this thread exist? The 2,000 and 1,000 in the picture are off-center and photoshopped in whats the big deal here?
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Brakon00 | 36 |
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Do you not play runlines? Your reds writeup seems to indicate that you like them by -1.5 at least.
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bodio | 119 |
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What is this? Just bet the over when 2 rightys are pitching? Or do you mean 2 specific dudes on the Yankees? I'm assuming the former.
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NJDevils | 11 |
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Quote Originally Posted by SenseiKreese: B.S. Homers in 9th for under loss. Line shifted to 10, hopefully some got the push. Now 15-9-2. Yeah, I got it at 10 so just a push. Always sucks when there is junk runs at end of game and it screws you over, but I guess a push isn't the worst that could of happened. |
SenseiKreese | 301 |
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