Profile | Entries | Thread Author | Posts | Activity |
---|---|---|---|---|
I like the Twins Under 70. A lot. Their lineup was surprisingly above-average last year, but that was mostly on the strength of a career year from Willingham and out-of-nowhere production from Trevor Plouffe, as well as a career-high in games for Mauer. They plan to play Mauer more behind the plate this year, and if he's getting fewer than 500 AB, I'm not sure how they won't regress. I think the pitching will be about the same if not a little better (and by this I mean better than how miserable they were last year and not actually GOOD by any stretch) and the hitting will be slightly worse. With Kansas City looking like a much stronger outfit and Cleveland at least having some potential on offense, I don't think the Twins top the 66 wins they had last year, let alone go over 70. |
DoubleUp4Life | 38 |
|
|
replied to
Desperate times call for desperate measures, right? Yanks at Detroit. Over backers come on in!!
in MLB Betting
Things that are problematic:
This being a figurative "must-win" game for the Yanks, I think they'll pitch Robertson and Soriano extensively even if they're down. Generally when I'm leaning towards an under, I'm doing it to fade starting pitching. But I usually will only make it an official pick and risk serious units on it if there's a Plan B that would get me to the same result. I don't really see the Plan B here other than another Valverde implosion. For instance, let's say Hughes goes 6 and Verlander leaves the game after 7 with a 2-2 tie, or the Tigers up 3-2 or something. Well, your fade of SP won't get you there on it's own, so you need some bullpen help. The Yankees throw their two bullpen aces out there for an inning or more a piece, and the odds are they keep it tied or to a one run deficit. Your only shot at winning is a Tigers bullpen implosion of 3+ runs. So with a game likely to give 3 or more innings to guys with solid RAs like Robertson, Soriano and Benoit, are you willing to bet real money on Verlander giving up more than 3 runs? Because to win this bet, you need one team to score more than 4.
|
RKapper | 28 |
|
|
Quote Originally Posted by PujolsJunkie: Nunez playing should help the over on both sides of the ball LOL That's actually the most prescient analysis I've seen for this game from anyone on covers today, haha.
|
Orante | 8 |
|
|
1. Gardner LF
2. Ichiro RF 3. Tex 1B 4. Cano 2B 5. Ibanez DH 6. Martin C 7. Chavez 3B 8. Granderson CF 9. Nunez SS No A-Rod, no Swisher.
|
Orante | 8 |
|
|
So Swisher and A-Rod are NOT starting, being replaced by Gardner and Chavez. Both have decent numbers, but such small sample sizes that it's probably better to just look at their recent form...not good.
|
Orante | 7 |
|
|
Just for information: I hate taking any favorites over -150, and have probably only done it 3-4 times this season. I just see too much value here.
Career stats vs. Verlander: Granderson .188/.778 (16 AB) Teixeira .097/.388 (31 AB) Cano .226/.595 (31 AB) Ibanez .103/.344 (29 AB) Ichiro .309/.752 (55 AB) Swisher .200/.727 (55 AB) A-Rod .333/1.198 (24 AB) Martin .417/1.128 (12 AB) The only guys with any semblance of success in a decent sample size are Ichiro, A-Rod and Martin. Unless A-Rod suddenly snaps out of his horrific slump or someone else goes yard, I just don't see how they're going to consistently get baserunners and score runs tonight.
|
Orante | 7 |
|
|
Eww, if you're only getting it at +150, that's pretty bad. You think the Yankees win this exact game more than 4 times out of 10?
|
GoldenGater5x | 3 |
|
|
While there are some limited parallels between the Yankees tonight and the Giants last week, I wouldn't go basing my analysis of the value of a bet on a one-game anecdote from recent memory. If you really want to delve deeper, pull up playoff stats on teams down 2-0 in a playoff series who are struggling to score and underdogs of +150 in Game 3. Not sure what you'd find, but whatever it is would be more reliable.
|
defer | 9 |
|
|
I see some value in that RL if you're high on Hughes tonight. Girardi will certainly use his best bullpen arms regardless of whether they're winning or losing late, so I could see them being down 1-0 or 2-1 or something and either losing by 1 or getting a crack at Valverde again to try to win.
-120 or so would be a better value, but I'm not sure it'll move that far, if at all.
|
BentleySports | 27 |
|
|
If I told you a team which has averaged 2.18 runs per game over their last 6 games (5 of which were at home in their hitter-friendly park), which has gone 3-5 over the last 3 years when priced at +150 to +175 as road dogs, which just lost its Captain and key offensive catalysy, and which is facing Justin Verlander - who has struck out 30 and given up 1 ER in his last 23 IP - ON THE ROAD...what would expect the line to be?
What if that team were called "The New York Yankees?" It seems pretty off. The problem is that when it comes to the Yankees, I can never tell if a line like this is a trap being set by the book to get action on Detroit, or whether it's set so low because they know fans and overeager amateurs will see anything over +150 on the Yankees as "good value". Are there any good arguments that +160 is good value on the Yankees tonight isn't based on lame arguments like "they're due" or "they know they need to win this one"?
|
Orante | 7 |
|
|
Congrats, guys. If you can hit an over in a game where Arroyo pitches like Christy Mathewson, you take that every day with a smile on your face.
|
Optimus888 | 25 |
|
|
Best hope is for the Reds to push it to 5 or more and then not use their best relievers. Try to backdoor a 5-3 or 6-2
|
Optimus888 | 25 |
|
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so. It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly. Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality. Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it. As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.