Profile | Entries | Thread Author | Posts | Activity |
---|---|---|---|---|
replied to
BET WEEK 12 like it's the last week of NFL FOOTBALL ( BILLS TT OVER 27.5 )
in NFL Betting
If you do not mind me asking why did you juice out on the over play? Concerned about the chargers scoring?
|
DoubleUp4Life | 45 |
|
|
I certainly miss the old school small ball. Bret Butler with 20 bunt singles a year, would choke up on the at and foul off pitch after pitch. Today's game is different and I would wager most players cannot effectively bunt. They even struggle with the productive outs, hitting the other way to move the runners over. But in this case there was no reason to bunt. Maybe the thing would have been to pinch hit Pederson for Freese. Freese was only in the lineup because Miley was "starting". The odd play to me was when Woodruff was bunting in the third, and the Dodger 1B let it roll foul when he could have made the out. Always take the out who cares if the runner gets to second. Ultimately it did not cost the dodgers except maybe an additional 10 to 12 pitches to get out of the inning.
|
calicappin | 8 |
|
|
Well after a decade plus of abysmal football, I am not optimistic about the Pruitt hire. The whole coaching search was embarrassing. I graduated in '94 (and again in '99), and I am definitely biased when I state that I believe TN should be a perennial top 15 to 20 program, based on facilities and program history, yet we continue to make bargain basement hires. (TN is paying Pruitt less than the outgoing hot mess of Butch Jones). I for one was hoping that Jeff Brohm was going to get good hard look. (a large buyout but TN has the money.....one of the top earners in all of college football which is amazing because we are so pitiful) Pruitt may surprise me and I will certainly support him like I would any coach at UT, but I believe we are several years from competing for the SEC East and probably closer to hiring a new coach than winning the East. UGA has built a solid program and is going to be crazy good the next few years (the recruiting class this year at UGA was insane). And Mullen was a solid hire at UF (And I would have liked having him at UT, but once Chip Kelly went to UCLA and Scott Frost to Nebraska, UF went with Mullen..leaving UT with "chopping the wood" cliche and the rest is history). I was not impressed watching the orange/white game, although I was happy to see a normal scoring system, unlike that other walking cliche, Jones, and his lame scoring system. In any case I am a bitter fan and will take a wait and see approach before I invest any dollars in the football program (well except I will go to the WVU/TN game because I am from WV and will have a lot of peeps there.) After that game, I will start my financial protest of the football program, lol! (Until they starting winning anyway) On another note, I am thrilled about the basketball program...we lucked into excellent basketball coach. In any case my two cents: TN is a fade team this year, too many question marks all over the place QB, LB, DL, OL to name a few...also with a change in defensive schemes 4-3 to a 3-4 the last time TN made that change was when we hired anther bama coach Sunseri as DC...and we had the worst defense in the history of TN that year. Best case scenario is 6 wins IMO. |
JoniLove5Chachi | 11 |
|
|
I think what makes the system nerve racking at times is simply unders are not "fun" to bet. Most of the time I end of watching the clock. Overs have an inherent "fun" factor as they can win early and regardless of the score there is always a chance it can go over. I remmber a bad beat in a SB between Giants and Ravens...under looking great as the 3Q is nearing an end...then in 3 plays there were 3 TDs (Pick 6 and 2 KOs) In the end this system is simply a series of 50/50 bets. Laws of probability, regression to the means will likely keep the system close to even.
Maybe there is a slighlty better than 50/50 because the system is taking advantage of two things. The fact that bettors prefer to bet overs and the long layoff for bowls seems to favor the defenses. (offenses seem to be stagnant with too much time plus a a defense can game plan an offense. i.e. the triple option less effective when a defense has a month to prepare. |
Roggs05 | 917 |
|
|
Actually I have a different perspective for why it should be a catch. By definition it is a catch and fumble if you have clear possession, have two feet down, and make a football move. The steeler clearly had possession of the ball with his knees on the ground. The stretching of the ball across the goal line constitutes a football move. IMHO, this should have been considered a catch and fumble..but not really a fumble since the ball crossed the plane before being fumbled. |
VGPOP | 54 |
|
|
Thanks for taking the time to reply. Makes good sense.
And yes, I can see an ugly game a coming our way. Good Luck!
|
undermysac | 50 |
|
|
If you do not mind me asking: What is your angle on the Under 67.5 yds? Although Perine is a little banged up he is the only option at RB and the Giants Run defense is suspect at best. (my book is -135 on the Over 67.5 and +105 on the under) Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:
9. Samaje Perine UNDER 67.5(-115) *1/.87 Best of Luck |
undermysac | 50 |
|
|
TN Defense is definitely down primarily due to injuries. Lost 3 of top 4 players (CB, MLB, OLB). Kirkland the MLB has practiced the last couple of days so he may return this weekend. It was an ankle sprain so not sure how effective he will be if he plays. TN also lost a starting DT this week. Danny O'Brien was dismissed from the team for the breaking the "team rules". TN does have some depth at DT though. Secondary on the other hand has not been very good once Cam Sutton was lost. The get beat deep all too often and when they do not it is because they have mugged the WR.
The offense also has a tendency to help the opposing defense because of TOs. (but then again tend to cost themselves some points with those same TOs...2 fumbles last week inside the ten) They way this game goes over: Bama jumps out to a 21+ pt lead, which is typical of TN this year...DD Deficits in every game but one. (was down by 10 to Appy St, 14 to VPI, 21 to UF, 17 to UGA, and 21 to TAMU...TN never trailed against Ohio in a less than impressive win) . After TN falls behind they open up the playbook. Then comes the scoring. BTW Motowner, TN is not typically an up tempo team. A couple of years ago the plan was to play fast, but now they seem to speed up only on occasion to set up a fast break, but this year those fast break plays are largely unsuccessful. However, once they fall behind they are forced to play faster. With all that said I did not play the over the last two weeks which I strongly contemplated but regretfully could not pull the trigger. This week I still may not pull the trigger as 57 seems like a lot, but how does bama not score 35+ on this depleted defense? TN has a Bad secondary, and lack of depth at LB. The front 4 though is as solid as they come. even after the loss of O'Brien. And though the bama defense is good, TN has a lot of talent on the offensive side of the ball...and their big weakness all year has been the O-Line, there has been significant improvement since the return of Chance Hall in Week 4. They created some nice holes up the middle last week against TAMU...now of course TAMU is no Bama, but back to week 1 against Appy St, the offensive line could not keep Appy out of the back field. If it keeps dropping I may have to take a shot at the over. |
motowner | 5 |
|
|
Disclaimer, as an alum, I have an inherent bias towards the Vols but attempt to look at the game as a gambler and not a fan.
There are a few reasons Vols look so poor early in the season, but I believe most of it centers around poor offensive line play (and the look ahead to UF...and yes all three games TN was looking ahead to UF). Publicly there has been a lot of attention to the key players on Def that TN has lost (3 of the 4 best players on Def: CB, MLB, and OLB), but the most important player that returned last week was OL Chance Hall. If you look at TN's opponents first 4 games at sacks and TFL: Appy state: 2 sacks and 5 TFLs VaTech: 2 sacks and 7 TFLs Ohio: 3 sacks and 8 TFLs UF: 1 sack and 1 TFL Although the game against UF was an all too long awaited victory, and I worry about the letdown, the coaches have to have enough sense to get the team focused on UGA. Next games are @ TAMU and Bama @ home. If TN loses to UGA, could lose 3 in a row. TN will be ready to play this game. Does that equal a covering win....that I do not know, UGA may come to play too. This is a must win for both teams if they want to win the SEC East. |
bookieassassin | 95 |
|
|
Disclaimer, I am a TN Alum so I might have some orange tinted glasses on but I like to think I can look at the team with limited bias.
After a bad decade, TN finally has quality talent and depth at most positions. Butch Jones has certainly done well on the recruiting trail (struggling in recruiting this this year, but I believe it is a wait and see from the recruits perspective as CBJ needs to show he can perform with talent). I have a few concerns with TN this year: 1) In game decisions from CBJ: TN lost two games last year (OU and UF) where CBJ has to be held accountable for many poor decisions. From ill advised declined penalties and not going for two up by 12 in the 4Q. Those two loses would have easily been wins with better decision making. Although not quite the record, I think of CBJ on par with Les Miles. Solid recruiter, solid coach, but on game days needs an adviser to keep from screwing up a good thing..hopefully this year he can out talent his own decision making) 2) As mentioned above, Dobbs lack consistency. He can look like a world beater at times and then will have some series where the ball falls 5 yards short of the WR time and time again. (Poor Health at WR the past couple of years has not helped) 3) LB depth not very good. On the plus side there are several reasons to consider TN a longshot for the championship. (not sure enough value to make a play at 12:1 though) 1) The SEC East is wide open, so making the SEC C-game is a strong possibility. So that gives TN a chance to win the SEC and the SEC winner is very likely to make the playoffs. 2) TN special teams could be a big factor in close games. As a group maybe the best unit in the country. 3) Bob Shoop: If he can coach talent the way he coached much less talented groups at Vanderbilt and Penn State (following teh scholly reductions), this defense could be very special. I cannot wait to see what he does with this defense. Although not deep at DT TN has some top notch players in the middle and the DEs with speed and depth and an aggressive coach could put a lot of pressure on opposing QBs, along with a shut down CB in Sutton and the other CB Martin came on strong the second half of last years will allow the secondary to play man to man with confidence allowing safeties to be more aggressive. 4) Offensively, the team is very capable and with dobbs running, and progressively better O line (two years ago TN started season with a combined 5 OL starts) this team could average 250+ yds per game on the ground. Especially if the defense keeps opposing teams of the field. Can the WRs stay healthy all year, to keep a balanced attacked...they have the talent. Do I see TN winning a National Title? No! But then again, had you asked me in 1998 did I see TN winning the title I would has said No, and an emphatic Hell No after Jamal Lewis went down with a season ending injury early that year! That is why they call it gambling! (and I want to see the Vols do well for a change) In general though I think betting on TN will be a losing proposition this year because of the hype. The lines will be too big.
|
tnvols | 13 |
|
|
replied to
Can anyone be nice enough to give me a play by play texas st vs tulsa game
in College Football
TD over backers celebrate!
|
JohnAnthonybk | 91 |
|
|
replied to
Can anyone be nice enough to give me a play by play texas st vs tulsa game
in College Football
1st and goal at 2
|
JohnAnthonybk | 91 |
|
|
replied to
Can anyone be nice enough to give me a play by play texas st vs tulsa game
in College Football
3rdand 11
|
JohnAnthonybk | 91 |
|
|
replied to
Can anyone be nice enough to give me a play by play texas st vs tulsa game
in College Football
2nd and 12 at 27
|
JohnAnthonybk | 91 |
|
|
replied to
Can anyone be nice enough to give me a play by play texas st vs tulsa game
in College Football
any score will do now.
|
JohnAnthonybk | 91 |
|
|
replied to
Can anyone be nice enough to give me a play by play texas st vs tulsa game
in College Football
FG good
|
JohnAnthonybk | 91 |
|
|
replied to
Can anyone be nice enough to give me a play by play texas st vs tulsa game
in College Football
4th and 10
going for teh FG |
JohnAnthonybk | 91 |
|
|
replied to
Can anyone be nice enough to give me a play by play texas st vs tulsa game
in College Football
sack 3rd and 10
|
JohnAnthonybk | 91 |
|
|
replied to
Can anyone be nice enough to give me a play by play texas st vs tulsa game
in College Football
2nd 7 and the 10
|
JohnAnthonybk | 91 |
|
|
replied to
Can anyone be nice enough to give me a play by play texas st vs tulsa game
in College Football
1st and 10 at 13
|
JohnAnthonybk | 91 |
|
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.