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@Christian_iaco The odds are currently even money (-110 on either Djoker or Medvedev). My guess is that Medvedev will move to even money, at least at some books. I'm curious if you think those odds are "decent". I was a little surprised by them. Daniil has looked great in Melbourne, and he did recently beat Novak in (two) straight sets at the ATP Finals. Still, I can't see betting against the winner of 7 of the last 10 Australian Opens at worse than even money. If I believed that Djokovic has a significant injury, then I suppose I might feel differently. The O/U opened at 40.5 at my book. The way both guys have been serving, I expect at least one set to go to a tiebreaker. If so, then your over lean is a likely winner, as long as neither guy wins in straight sets. My prediction is Djokovic in four, something along the lines of his first ever win there (vs. Tsonga): 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 7-6 A prop bet that you might like (since you envision an epic match) is Medvedev to lose the first set and win the match (+480).
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Christian_iaco | 7 |
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Quote Originally Posted by TheBallDontLie:
Quote Originally Posted by Jet_Mutley: Obviously, Covers.com is full of folks that don't have a clue. There's no problem with 5dimes, just getting a slight face lift. If you don't know why they do this, then there's no point explaining. I could see them coming back as a different website. Q. Is 5Dimes closing permanently for U.S. players? If not, are there plans to come back to the U.S. market and when approximately? A. No, we will be back, better than ever and hopefully very soon! https://www.5dimes.eu/action-required-faqs.html This in no way explains: 1) why they are doing this so quickly, with so little advanced notice, or 2) why they aren't simply rolling over account balances into the new format. As for why they are doing this only for U.S. players, the obvious answer is that the vast majority of their handle is with U.S. players. They can create less of a panic by claiming only U.S. players will be affected, but the bottom line for them isn't dramatically different that doing it for all players. One thing is for sure. This is NOT just a website "face lift". They could do that with no problem without closing out everyone's future & parlay bets for less than they're worth and without looting inactive accounts, both of which will occur as a result of the plan. The late-September close date is pretty clever, actually. Consider all the NBA futures bets. By closing deep into the playoffs but before the Finals are over, they: 1) allow bets on every team not in the Finals to be closed out as worthless, but also 2) value bets on the teams in the Finals as being worth whatever the bettor originally paid (not the accumulated equity). If you placed a bet on the NBA champ, you either get nothing (for 28/30 teams) or you get your money back (for 2/30 teams). 5dimes will wind up keeping >90% of the futures handle. (Same for the WNBA.) For MLB, it's unclear, but they might similarly refund bets on the 16 playoff teams and wipe away bets on the remaining 14. I could go on, but you get the picture.
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OrangeHammer | 21 |
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There really is no good explanation for why they could be doing this so quickly. They are trying to close out one half-step short of an exit scheme. This will allow them to swallow up 100% of the accounts of people who aren't active (and hence won't even know until it's too late). It will also allow them to pay off active accounts, most of which have parlays, futures or other bets with substantial equity and/or settle dates after late September, all at a small fraction of their actual value. Maybe they really do have some plan to reorganize and reopen. Maybe they don't. Regardless, the implication that they are hurriedly shutting down after 25 years to "take advantage of new opportunities" is just BS smoke screen to avoid excessive panic and possible financial pushback from sportsbook regulators in C.R., fraud lawsuits in the States, or through other mechanisms. Take what you can. I will say that, despite this sad ending, 5dimes has been the best book for U.S. customers throughout its rein. They had a good run. Good luck finding another sportsbook that will be as trustworthy for as long. For U.S. players, I know of none. |
User792729 | 20 |
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Quote Originally Posted by sawman: Risk CA$ 25.00 To Win CA$ 40.00 I was not planning on betting this card...until I saw the odds. There were several lines that surprised me, more than any other card I can recall. Since I was expecting Miller and OSP to open at more like +110 and -140, a parlay of those two at +390 was a little too tempting to pass up. Miller hasn't looked spectacular lately, and Dariush has, so I can attribute that one to the short memory of most MMA bettors. OSP, though? Is there something I should know about the NJ State Athletic Commission's drug testing policy? I'm still waiting for prop odds to open. I was quite surprised that OSP/Cummins under 2.5 was better than +150, so I'm keeping my eyes open for OSP ITD, by KO or even in the 1st. BOL 2 all. It should be one of the best Fox cards yet.
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sawman | 31 |
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Quote Originally Posted by OnTheO: My favorite line for the main event is Silva ITD -135. There are too many unknowns for me to bet it personally, but I think if we see even a shell of what Anderson looked like prior to the injury, there's no doubt Anderson eventually finishes him inside 5 rounds. From '06 to '12, Silva went 17-0 with 15 finishes. His only decisions were against guys who wanted no part of the stand-up with him - Leites and Maia. I'm glad to hear you say this, because I have been loading up on this bet since it opened at even money. After a hot streak on parlays (Viva Colombia), I now care more about Silva's method of victory than about that football game on Sunday. If I weren't already so heavy on it, I would still be happy taking -135. It seems like many people, including Long-Tu, have been kept away by the unshakable image of Anderson's gumby leg and maybe by the first Weidman fight, too. If AS didn't think that his leg is ready for this, I really believe that he would not have taken this fight. Quote Originally Posted by OnTheO: Anderson is too big for Nick and still will have the power and accuracy, which most often leaves guys last. It's usually speed and the chin that goes first and that's my only worry. I agree that this is the biggest risk. In my opinion, accuracy has been the main factor that separated Anderson from other humans, although speed of some sort of neural process is an integral part of that. Some people feel that a decline in Silva's speed and/or chin may have contributed to his 1st loss vs. Weidman, although that seems like a stretch to me. I'm not too worried about it, but I have substantial money on the Under (<3.5) as a partial hedge. If a slow, fragile Anderson shows up, then maybe he'll get hit a lot and get knocked out early. I'll be pretty shocked if it happens, but nowhere near as shocked as I was at the end of Silva's last two fights! Rousey-9 vs. Rousey-5,8: I like your McMann by decision pick a lot. I hadn't looked at that before, so thanks for that. Tate was once very popular, and McMann is still relatively unknown. That seems to be biasing the odds here. Mini-Cain vs. Mini-Rumble: Gastelum, on the other hand, I might still be willing to lose one more bet against. Before the Rick Story and Ellenberger fights, I felt that he was facing a big step up in competition that he might or might not be ready for. He should be able to pick apart Woodley and grind out a decision, but I'm just not convinced that the chances Kelvin prevails are 70%. I'll probably just stay away, but my leans on this would be a small bet on Woodley in the 1st (+500) with a hedge on Gastelum by decision (+300) or UD. |
OnTheO | 37 |
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Quote Originally Posted by OnTheO: Silva, but the juice is too high for me. What's interesting about both Diaz bros is that they never really add any new wrinkles to their game. It's straight boxing (no kicks or checks), high volume, never get tired and out work everyone. I agree with both of these points. The high-volume Diaz style tends to collect points on the cards, so Anderson may need to finish Diaz. That, plus the fact that his only 5-round decisions in the UFC have resulted from an opponent running away from him for 5 rounds, makes Silva ITD the bet for me. If you can't find that prop, Silva to win at -300 would be a no-bet for me. |
trust-me | 9 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Cerebral: Anyone here tried Bitcoin sports books? Seems like this is the future (and the future is now). Yes, I've tried several bitcoin sportsbooks. There are two obvious issues that anyone considering this must be aware of. First, bitcoin sportsbooks are one of the best vehicles ever created--for fraud. Bitcoinsports owed me 10 BTC when the owner disappeared. I got my money out of two others before they closed up shop on a few days notice. There are some books out there now that seem pretty reliable, but there are a remarkable number of alarming historical examples. Second, bitcoin remains highly volatile short-term and totally unpredictable long-term. The only real way to protect yourself from the risk of losing almost everything is to hold coins for a short period of time before exchanging them into currency. That is possible if you want to place one big bet, but it is totally impossible for futures bets. For a steady gambler, it also adds a level of complexity that many don't want. Fortunately, a more practical option now exists at the various sportsbooks that have jumped on the BTC bandwagon by offering deposits and withdrawals in bitcoin. *If* bitcoin has a big future in gaming, it probably looks much more like what 5dimes and Heritage are now doing than what Anonibet and Nitrogen are doing. Unless you intend to be speculating on bitcoin on top of your sports gambling, there's no reason to have an account denominated in bitcoin.
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Cerebral | 6 |
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Quote Originally Posted by doodeecheng5: Hey, I'm going to take mine out in Bitcoins. Depends on how much money you have though. I bet in small units ($10 a unit), so I have under $1000 in there, so I'm allowed to take out in bitcoins (I think there's like a $1000 limit). No fee for bitcoins from 5Dimes. To payout bitcoins to cash, I think there's like a 0.5% to 1% fee from most exchanges. I agree that bitcoins are now the easiest way to withdraw money from 5dimes. For me, that's also the easiest deposit method. Obiously, it's only helpful in both direction if you are familiar with a way to convert between currency and bitcoin. As for price fluctuations, vanzack's solution, rapid turnaround, is the best defense. Bitcoin is a well-designed money-transmission technology; whether it has any long-term "investment" value is a whole different question. Another way I've dealt with fluctuations is by having account denominated in both $$$ and BTC.
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iEatBooks | 15 |
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Quote Originally Posted by doodeecheng5: Hey, I'm going to take mine out in Bitcoins. Depends on how much money you have though. I bet in small units ($10 a unit), so I have under $1000 in there, so I'm allowed to take out in bitcoins (I think there's like a $1000 limit). No fee for bitcoins from 5Dimes. To payout bitcoins to cash, I think there's like a 0.5% to 1% fee from most exchanges. I agree that bitcoins are now the easiest way to withdraw money from 5dimes. For me, that's also the easiest deposit method. Obiously, it's only helpful in both direction if you are familiar with a way to convert between currency and bitcoin. As for price fluctuations, vanzack's solution, rapid turnaround, is the best defense. Bitcoin is a well-designed money-transmission technology; whether it has any long-term "investment" value is a whole different question. Another way I've dealt with fluctuations is by having account denominated in both $$$ and BTC.
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iEatBooks | 15 |
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replied to
Bitcoin price is surging...best time to start using Bitcoin with sportsbooks
in Gaming Industry - US Quote Originally Posted by CountCrisco: Historically, winter has been a good time for bitcoin prices. Time to use bitcoin for deposits and payouts with books. "Historically !?!" That's a good one. As if the history of bitcoin were remotely long enough for past seasonality to be predictive. [Quote] this virtual currency will never go away. It's only getting stronger. That may be true, but that doesn't mean that the BTC/$ exchange rate will go up. Don't get me wrong, I'm a fan of bitcoin as a money exchange medium for gamblers. As a "commodity" for long-term "investment", though, I'd rather stick with something truly rare, intrinsically valuable and with an insurmountable barrier to entry. Maybe neodymium, for example. |
CountCrisco | 12 |
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Quote Originally Posted by zongo: Has anyone deposited via the bitcoin method on 5dimes? I am banned from WU and money gram. I've made several deposits to 5dimes by bitcoin. I am not banned from WU or Moneygram, but both are a pain in a%! and ridiculously overpriced. For me, the acceptance of BTC at 5dimes was a dream come true. My favorite book + my favorite payment method. This has also created a way for me to speculate on bitcoin in either direction while gambling on sports. I have accounts at sites denominated in BTC and at 5dimes. If I think the bitcoin price is going to plummet, I move my bitcoin to 5d.
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zongo | 5 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Howdoiplayxx: Just go bet over then on every fight if they are basically saying it's either finished or not finished in 1 round not 1 round and 2:30 of 2nd. Just use it against them. Has to be advantageous. If that is indeed how partybets grades the over, then this would be a significant opportunity. That's why I was curious if the odds posted there are similar to other sites. Something tells me that a book slimy enough to do this in the first place wouldn't interpret things that way. My guess is that when they last odds for over 1.5 and under 1.5 rounds, both bets are losers if the fight ends at any point in the 2nd. Worth checking, though.
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bail3yz | 15 |
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I don't need any insider tips to stay away from Renan on this way. His last two outings, and the emergency room trips that followed, have raised too many questions for me to lay anything in the -700 range.
Betting on Gagnon, though, would indeed require some information that I don't have. This post provided no insights whatsoever, and the odds alone cast serious doubt on whether well-placed MMA insiders have definitive information about Barão that would justify money on Mitch. If they believed that, the money would already be in the market. Unless your source is Renan's doctor or girlfriend, I don't buy that a tip that juicy hasn't already been better by people closer to RB than you. |
Mars101 | 17 |
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What makes you think that "some books" grade this way? I've never heard of this, and you are absolutely correct to say that this is NOT standard. Were they offering odds that differed significantly from the consensus? Unless this highly non-standard policy is clearly stated on their website, you should:
1) Out them more vocally here, e.g. with a thread title that warns people who don't read the thread, and 2) Report them a 3rd-party arbiter, e.g. SBRForum. Likely none of this will help you, but you will at least help out someone else and, with any luck, cost the 'book some business. Of course, I understand that you might want to wait and do this *after* you have cashed your check.
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bail3yz | 15 |
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replied to
What will the Florida St vs Ohio St National Championship game line be?
in College Football Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69: OSU +2 ?? It looks like you were mainly interested in riling up the peanut gallery, but, on the off chance anyone actually looked at this thread for an answer to the question in the title... The current line on this hypothetical game is OSU+3. Obviously, that could change based on what happens in the semifinal games. Why anyone would lock in this price now is beyond me, since you can get 15:1 for predicting that the game takes place at all. Nevertheless, the bet is available if you really want it.
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TRAIN69 | 71 |
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Quote Originally Posted by JimGunn: I ended up taking Faber by submission at +140 instead of ITD or fight does not go the distance. As far as the main event, I like the fact that Robbie has been fighting and winning twice since the first fight while Hendricks has been rehabbing a injury and gaining weight from the pictures I can see. I agree that Faber by sub at +140 or looks better than ITD. In the main event, I'm somewhere between the two of you; I see this being fairly close on the feet, perhaps even leaning Robbie's way. However, I see Johnny landing numerous takedowns with relative ease. A lot like the Hendricks-Condit fight. Yes, it is tough to 'cap Johnny's injury at this point, but it seems clear he's at least better than he was in the the first fight. Otherwise, I agree with your main card leans. Pettis ITD only pays slightly better than <4.5 rounds, since ITD is a prop bet with extra juice. The under is probably better value. |
OnTheO | 17 |
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The winner of the fight is a no play for me.
I'm still considering a combination of prop bets, though. Basically, I think Pettis has a decent shot at winning early. El Nino is a master of grinding out decisions, though, and Showtime is as bad at earning points on the cards as he is good at finding highlight-reel finishes. The most appealing combo in my mind is: Pettis in round 1 (+625) & Melendez by UD (+375). Weighted equally, the combo bet is +187. You could think of this is a bet on Gil to dominate with a hedge against Pettis pulling off something miraculous. Showtime has pulled that off three fights in a row, albeit over a span of years. I think his chances of doing it again are probably more like 25-30%, especially since he should realize that grinding out a decision is El Nino's best game plan. A more conservative approach based on this same logic would be to add a smaller bet on Pettis in round 2 or to switch the bet on Gil to a win by any decision. Either of these would push the bet near even money, which doesn't sound so appealing. I am well aware that combinations of MMA props are usually a bad idea, since the juice is higher than on straight MMA bets. I'm hoping that this matchup is unusual enough to compensate for the extra juice.
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jackal4422 | 9 |
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The injury report for this game should obviously include Utes QB Kendal Thompson. I'm not sure why he was omitted from Covers' list.
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Covers | 10 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Ferrari29: Will this line go up or down??? The prior posts should answer this question for you. The line might not go up, but I would be shocked if it goes down significantly. If you like Hunt, I would wait until just before the main card. .
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Ferrari29 | 26 |
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Quote Originally Posted by McDoc: I'm not a huge fan of either Atlanta or the AZ/DET over in this spot. The lines look about right to me, but I do agree that the outcomes of both of these are probably unusually unpredictable. Atlanta has been all over the place this season, and the Cards/Lions both have offensive potential that has not yet been fully unleashed this season. Sorry, I meant Cardinals/Eagles, obviously.
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Sherms | 7 |
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