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@theclaw
Do the Bucs fall into a partial or 3/4 Bator Rule? (Scoring 30+ and allowing less than 10 in two consecutive games) It's not complete but I believe you've given consideration to a partial Bator Rule in the past. Last 2 games: TB 32 PHI 9 TB 9 CAR 0 |
theclaw | 151 |
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Thanks again Joe! |
syracusejoe | 37 |
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@syracusejoe Thanks again for the winner Joe!
Erik (SU alum 1982) |
syracusejoe | 13 |
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Thanks for the winner Joe! |
syracusejoe | 42 |
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I like TEN when getting points and ATL as a road favorite for first time since last year is a stretch. Tennessee for mee. |
Digitalkarma | 30 |
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The Bills just lost 2 of their last 3 games to JAX and N.E... And were one play away from losing to the NYG. They've had 2 weeks to bounce back with a big game after losing to JAX and haven't done so yet. To expect them to turn it around in a short week is asking alot imo. Bucs come in well-rested with few road games so far, but have defeated both MIN and SAINTS on the road already. They play Under games that keep them IN GAMES. TB is 4th in blitz rate and we know what happened to Josh Allen against the Patriots blitz last week (On non-blitz plays, Allen was 17-22 163 yards 7.4 y/a; When blitzing, Allen was only 10-19 102 yards 5.4 y/a). Bucs will be blitzing! Lastly, the BIlls may also be looking ahead to their next game vs the Bengals. They'll have a more reasonable 10 days to get their act together for that one. TB + 8.5 |
professor53 | 15 |
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@haymo https://www.footballzebras.com/2023/10/week-8-referee-assignments-2023/
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begginerboy | 48 |
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@begginerboy In support of your Giants play, the referee for the game is John Hussey- he's the #1 ref for Home teams. Home teams are 65-46 ats when Hussey is the official and, even better, the home team in division games is 34-13! I'm a Commanders fan and my pools this week say Giants.
There are two angles to this game. The ‘Let ‘Em Play” component is immense. It has the makings of a grind it out contest, something along the lines of a 19-17 type game. So it goes without saying the under is worth serious consideration. The home team angle with Hussey in these games is astounding. If the Giants are to have a chance, it will be on the back of their defense. The less penalties the better here. |
begginerboy | 48 |
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Every single one of SF’s opponents in 2022 lost its next game, if they’ve played the following week. 0-15. (The only footnote is that after the Chiefs defeated the 49ers in Week 7, Kansas City had a bye week in Week 8 before beating the Titans in Week 9.) In 2023, the record is 1-3. In week 2, Pittsburgh WON defeating Cleveland 26-22 after playing the 49ers. (Pitt was actually losing the game before a late TJ Watt fumble return for a TD.)
The next 3 opponents, Rams, NYG and AZ all lost the following week. So record is now 1-18 and DALLAS is the next scheduled loser. |
eddiegray | 8 |
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Goedert Over 4.5 receptions |
Mayor | 12 |
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replied to
NFL PLAYOFFS .............................................................................2022 season
in NFL Betting @theclaw Thanks and agree. Always look forward to your analyses and thanks again for helping me make the move to KC on gameday. I was on Cincy all week
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theclaw | 258 |
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replied to
NFL PLAYOFFS .............................................................................2022 season
in NFL Betting @soup-can Thanks for the input. I think the Bator Rule has already been proven to be a successful system during regular season. I suppose one could find the games in which a bye week interrupted the schedule between the second and third game (similar to the bye week before the SB), but as you say, it was difficult to find such a situation and I'm sure it is not a significant sample size. And frankly the playoff examples do not represent a good sample size either. However, I think there is a difference in the Bator Rule "regular season vs playoffs". During regular season, any team that achieves 30+ pts on offense while holding opponents to 10 pts or less on defense for two consecutive games, will create overconfidence by either the offense/defense or both in the 3rd game. Additioinally, linesmakers will need to inflate the lines as most bettors will use 'recency bias', expecting the trend to continue (which it usually does not). Move onto the playoff scenario ... a second season of 3 (or4) games leading to the ultimate SB win. Each game comes with greater motivation and knowledge that more effort will be needed at each level. Any emotional regression far less likely than regular season imo. And more likely to see a continuance of superior play - and that is how 3 of the last 4 similar situations played out.
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theclaw | 258 |
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replied to
NFL PLAYOFFS .............................................................................2022 season
in NFL Betting @theclaw Researching the Bator Rule during past playoffs, I found NO other pure-play Bator Rule situations so this situation is unique. Closest I found were 4 past Superbowls in which 3 of the 4 parameters were met (parameters being to bet against any team that scores 30+ while holding opponents to 10 or less in two consecutive games):
1990 SuperBowl: SF defeated MIN 41-13 and RAMS 30-3. Bet against SF. Result: SF defeated DEN 55-10. The Bator Rule loses. 1992: WAS defeated ATL 24-7 and DET 41-10. Bet against WAS. Result: WAS defeated BUF 37-24. The Bator Rule loses. 2001: NYG defeat PHI 20-10 snd MIN 41-0. Bet against NYG. Result: NYG lost to BAL 7-34. The Bator Rule wins. 2018: PHI defeats ATL 15-10 and MIN 38-7. Bet against PHI. Result: PHI defeated PATS 41-33. The Bator Rule loses.
I was hoping for a better correlation and altho these are not pure Bator Rule situations, they don't follow the expected pattern. In fact they trend toward the opposite and are more in agreement with your speciulation that regression is less likely as teams build up to the superbowl. In fact, it may be more supportive of an Eagle victory. The 4 games displayed above represent some of the best superbowl teams in history. ...The '89 49ers were a juggernaut, The '91 Skins team was named the BEST team by Foxsports, the Ravens set the NFL for fewest points allowed in a season, and even the 2017 Eagles rank 36th all-time best team in NFL top 100. So I'm inclined to view the 7 points allowed in 2 consecutive games by the Eagles to be something rarely achieved. The only better defensive effort in the playoffs may be the 1985 Bears... They first defeated CHI 21-0 and RAMS 24-0 - then destroyed the Patriots 46-10 in the Superbowl. |
theclaw | 258 |
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@MrBator Your namesake, the Bator Rule seems to apply to the Eagles as they scored 30+ points and allowed only 7 pts in 2 consecutive games. I know this has been a strong angle. Do you have any updated info on the actual record of this rule? |
kcblitzkrieg | 20 |
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replied to
NFL PLAYOFFS .............................................................................2022 season
in NFL Betting @theclaw Do we have an update (or can someone find it) on the actual W/L record of the Bator Rule?
Correct me if I'm wrong, but the Bator Rule says to bet against any team that scores 30+ points and allows 10 or less in 2 consecutive weeks. The Eagles have done this in their two playoff games. |
theclaw | 258 |
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replied to
NFL PLAYOFFS .............................................................................2022 season
in NFL Betting Great call on the Chiefs Claw, when so many were on the Bengals.
Now everyone's on the Eagles who find themselves caught in the classic Bator Rule! |
theclaw | 258 |
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replied to
NFL PLAYOFFS .............................................................................2022 season
in NFL Betting @theclaw How many points defines a blowout win and likewise, a close win? |
theclaw | 258 |
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Some Bucs backers point to Brady's 7-0 record vs Dallas like it is an overwhelming phenomenon that won't be broken. Here are some Brady records already broken this year
89-0 when leading by 17 points--- cincy won 34-23.
2022- first time Brady team lost eight games in a season.
2022- Brady loses three games in a row for the first time since 2001!
218-0- first time in Brady's career that his team had a seven point lead in the final minute of the game and lost (vs Cle).
A 7-0 record against Dallas (5 of which were with perennial powerhouse patriots) is just one more waiting to fall in my opinion.
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vanzack | 166 |
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@wmi799 https://www.cnn.com/videos/sports/2023/01/05/damar-hamlin-charity-receives-millions-in-donations-kaye-pkg-ac360-vpx.cnn |
van1976 | 59 |
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@joesap27 Hopkins Questionable |
Indigo999 | 39 |
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