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In college, my roommate was the starting middle linebacker for our 1-AA team. I would watch game film with him and have him tell me all the issues he would see with every team. I would sit quietly and take my own notes. More often than not, bet against my school.
The reason why is because with football players come bravado. You go in with a game plan and if you execute, you expect to win. The problem is that the other team has their own game plan for you as well. These "weaknesses" that your friend has found is great but do you not think that Pitt hasn't seen its own game film and knows what their issues are? ODU has been putting up huge numbers against 1-AA opponents. Of course they go into the game with swagger and think the world is theirs. I just suggest to tread lightly. If your friend was saying that they were going to get blown out by 30+, then it may be different.
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Ballin_Bill | 19 |
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Play seems to have stopped. I assume trainer but it would be nice if Goffin throws in the towel. I have the OVER
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165yds | 9 |
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Quote Originally Posted by slick15: I don`t have money on the game.... But living in NY....All i was hearing on talk radio was Wheeler this and that. He his the future..... Not showing me anything at all I'm glad you feel that he isn't showing you anything. Your lack of baseball knowledge when comparing him to Scott Kazmir shows me everything. You know absolutely nothing about baseball. You compared him to a "bust" in Kazmir, who not only pitched 4 great years with TB but also never dressed in a Mets uniform.
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cambyspree99 | 20 |
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Have Kudla at +800 now. 6 sets yesterday for Tsonga. Kudla playing very well so far. Threw 250 on Kudla. I like him in this spot (even though Tsonga winning in straight sets wouldn't surprise me, or anyone else, in the least)
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Polecat65 | 7 |
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Quote Originally Posted by PimpJzH: Guess a few losses and he gave up These system ideas are great only if they have a good edge. The guy wanted a 3 game chase and wasn't realizing that the system had to hit at a 20 to 1 clip to be worth playing. Also, system plays are system plays. Just because there was a pregame pitching change, the system still plays. It doesn't magically skip that game. |
sambrunstein | 34 |
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Quote Originally Posted by sambrunstein: On 4/20, the Padres (B) bet was canceled didn't qualify due to a pitcher change so the bet was canceled That shouldn't affect the system. There was still an O/U line prior to game time.
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sambrunstein | 34 |
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Quote Originally Posted by sambrunstein: 4/21 (B) San Diego Padres o8 (+105) 2.1 units (C) Colorado Rockies o10.5 (+105) 4.2 units (A) Texas Rangers u9.5 (-105) 1 unit YTD: 16-1 (+9.2 units) 4/22 (C) San Diego Padres o7 (-115) 4.4 units (B) Texas Rangers u8 (-105) 2.2 units (A) Boston Red Sox o8.5 (+105) (A) San Francisco Giants u7 (-125) 1.3 units (A) Arizona Diamond Backs u7 (-125) 1.3 units (A) Colorado Rockies u9.5 (-115) 1.2 units (A) Atlanta Braves u9.5 (-115) 1.2 units (A) Pittsburgh Pirates u8 (-120) 1.2 units Padres were a C bet yesterday. You had them labeled as a B bet twice. The system had 2 losses yesterday.
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sambrunstein | 34 |
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How far did you back-test this? What was the record in each year? With a 3 game chase, you could end up losing 10.4 units with a -110 vig on each game. So this system would have to hit at a 20 to 1 clip to be worth the investment.
Good start so far. The Tiger game last nightjust crept over to save the system from its 1st loss.
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sambrunstein | 34 |
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Quote Originally Posted by brickbets: maybe....but you cant argue with the past results in the longer term.. its worth a play..... Past results mean d--k when it comes to quarter plays. It is all about recent games for each team. You seem to not understand the right approach for quarter plays. You tried to make a case that 54+ points haven't been scored recently in Nuggets games. The overall total is pointless. NBA games lack defense for the most part. You should care less about the total the other teams scored. They don't add anything to the value of the line. You solely should be focusing on the totals of the team that you are betting on. If they have been starting out hot (i.e. 30+ points in 1st quarters by Houston), you should not be betting the under. Let alone, calling it a 10 unit gem. Good luck buddy
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brickbets | 12 |
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Quote Originally Posted by brickbets: U 1quarter 54......nugz/rocks these guyed played there last 10 against each other 8-0-2 U 54 1q...and the nugz have played the last 7 in a row U 54 as well.... let it ride.......10u 58 points last time they played...it is a weak bet considering you do not know how the nuggets will pace their offense without galinari...houston is hitting on all cylinders right now...better off as a no play
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brickbets | 12 |
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Quote Originally Posted by totalguy: You will lose your shirt betting the NO runs in first over the long run. For the vast majority of the games, it's either YES or no play. The problem with NO is that you will almost certainly be laying -120 to -150 depending on the pitchers. If you spot bet, then you can bet NO and get away with it. If this is something you plan on doing each day for the whole season, you will lose it all. The vig is way too much for an unknown.
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mordy | 19 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Perfect1313: 1114 your killing me with your lines .......... started at 66 1/2 dropping 65 1/2 ............ He hooks every line
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GIANFRANCO1114 | 6973 |
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You just made the case against yourself. Illinois plays good D and shoots a ton of 3s. In a won and done game, defense and 3s are usually what wins it for you. Illinois is not a team that gets to the line 20+ times a game. If they got hot from 3, they are deadly. They have 3 solid guards who can hit the outside shot plus their big men can hit it from long-range from time to time. Colorado played in a much weaker conference than Illinois, so that does play a big factor.
With all that being said, I will be going with Colorado in my bracket and a no bet otherwise. Dinwiddie can go shot for shot with Paul/Richardson. Should be an interesting game.
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ebpadjen | 10 |
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VCU runs a high-tempo full court press. Akron is using a freshman in Betancourt and a horrible ball handler in Harney, who is a point forward. Akron beat an Ohio team, which is playing their worst basketball of the season. Ohio dominated early but had no help from their guards all game. VCU has an incredibly deep bench and has multiple guys who are great inside and multiple guys who are great from 3. This game will be a blowout from the start. Zeke Marshall gets into foul trouble early with the constant pace by VCU and Akron goes downhill from there.
Even if Abreu doesn't get busted, Ohio is nowhere close offensively or defensively to VCU. -8 is very generous IMO. VCU is an Elite-8 caliber team. Their worst nightmare is playing Florida. That is the only team in that bracket that will stop VCU and keep them from a Final Four appearance.
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Raidernator76 | 34 |
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Good call on Virginia. I was out and unable to follow every game. I go back and go over the day's numbers after every day. Problem with this system is that if you can bet every game then you'll be ahead. Timing is sometimes an issue with me.
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GIANFRANCO1114 | 6973 |
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Good call on Virginia. I was out and unable to follow every game. I go back and go over the day's numbers after every day. Problem with this system is that if you can bet every game then you'll be ahead. Timing is sometimes an issue with me.
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GIANFRANCO1114 | 6973 |
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Quote Originally Posted by 11spread11: Thanks D 10 I could be looking at it wrong but..... Using your angle so far tonight you would be 1-0 a winner on Flor. St. Correct me if I'm wrong but if u played that so far......100%. Good start give us a final # if I would Yes sir...1-0 on the night. I am going to cap the tournaments at a 10-point difference. Meaning if the 1H goes UNDER by double digits, I will be doing the 2H OVER. I am decreasing the number since these games are do or die for their season. I expect most teams to play through the end for the most part, so the ends of 2nd halves should have decent fouling. I will be starting a thread for this system. FYI-St Mary's/Midd Tenn St Over 66.5 was a play as well
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GIANFRANCO1114 | 6973 |
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Quote Originally Posted by 11spread11: Dajal10 I agree with what you say about the 2 nd 1/2 being a better bet. But my question is the 12 point difference .....If the game total is around 120 like the Bama game or around 160 like the Oakland game. I would think a certain % would work better!! Have you seen a tread .......if a lower total cashs more. Thanks for bringing up a good angle and GL on your games. There has been really no discernible difference at all. I was surprised since I went into it thinking that the larger game lines (145+) that had low 1st half totals, would have been the best bet. My thinking was that Vegas is usually right based on pace and that the overall total would correct itself with a bigger 2nd half. Surprise, surprise. Still in the 70-75% range. I use this system throughout the whole season. When it comes to the tourney, I am not sure how I will play it yet. (I have held off using it the past 3 years in the tournaments.) I will probably do a cold run this year and work out the right formula then back test it on the past 5 years.
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GIANFRANCO1114 | 6973 |
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Quote Originally Posted by GIANFRANCO1114: Ok, gents. This is what I am going to do. Every game starting TUES all the way thru the national championship I am betting UNDER in the first half and OVER in the 2nd half. The UNDER on the 1st half will always be for $500. The OVER bet for the 2nd half will vary on the outcome of the 1st half. 1st half UNDER for $500.... if it wins I will bet 2H OVER for 200. if it pushes or loses I will bet 2H OVER for 750. Reasoning: Teams come out nervous obviously, and need to feel out the other team cause in most tourney games they are not familiar with the opponent. 2nd half most of the time, has alot more scoring as nerves are gone, halftime adjustments, and ofcourse, the foul shots at the end in a semi-close game. Will post picks on here throughout. You may tail or fade, doesnt matter to me. But made a nice chunk of change doing this for the conference tourney games. Either way, best of luck to all and enjoy the madness. You started out with this post, saying that tournament teams start out tight. The issue with that is, a hand full of posts later, you are checking to see how the theory would have worked last year. You used a faulty scheme to measure the halftime totals. 1st half and 2nd half lines do not hold true to the game total numbers. There is always a ball park of where a line will open but half totals don't always follow it dead on. Now you are on track with the right idea though. You are just getting there in the worst way possible. Taking 1H unders on every game is just a waste of time and more importantly money. Let's say your faulty lines were spot on for both halves, you are only going 21-13 in the 1st round of the tourney. Each win may have been a basket going in or out, too many losses and plays for a system. The best system is the under 1H, bet 2H over. Your faulty numbers say it went 10-3. So it goes from a 61% system play for 1st halves to 76% system play for 2nd halves. The real money is in the 2nd halves. I run a system where if the 1st half total goes under by 12+ points, I automatically take the 2H over. It hits throughout the season around 72%. If you want to make the most money and bet smart, you do not bet with a shot in the dark that these games will play to the under across the board. 61% has no value. The value is betting up the 2H at 76%. So like I said before, your numbers and lines mean nothing since they weren't true lines. At the same time, you were on the right track. Good Luck over the next few weeks
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GIANFRANCO1114 | 6973 |
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Quote Originally Posted by nkmi1984: https://www.bigsouthsports.com/mediaPortal/player.dbml?&id=744075&catid=0&DB_OEM_ID=4800&KEY=KIPLRCPQHLZFEGI.20130305194826 Thanks. The early game wasn't free so I assumed this game would be the same
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theguru1 | 17 |
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