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Just did it. He actually LOST money the day before....
"So basically break even night. 0-4 on the $50 and 2-4 on the $30, for a 20-1 profit of $600, although loss of the $550" Lost $550 on the big one and while he is correct he made ~$600 ($590 actually) on 1 of the 11 parlays he conveniently left off the $300 he lost from the other 10. So his end result from day 1 is in reality (-$550 + $590 - $300) = -$260 on $880 risked. Total 2 day profit is (-$260+$2094) = $1834. That is a 128% return ($1834/($880+$550) for two days. I'm not hating on him or the system as that is still very profitable, but far from the 600% he's claiming. Don't get duped. |
theparlaypicker | 297 |
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Good catch dondadapicks. My mistake on the teams. $2094 profit on $550 risked is a 381% return.
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theparlaypicker | 297 |
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Not saying this system can't or doesn't work but the math and % returns reported are not accurate(either deliberately or on accident).
Let's look at yesterday's results: TPP made 11 $50 bets for a total risk of $550. THE BET Virginia (+207) Milwaukee (+563) Washington State (+476) Dallas Mavericks (+818) One of the parlays hit (Virginia and Dallas) at $50 which paid out $1359. Very impressive for sure but don't forget he lost 10 other bets totaling $500 for a profit of $859. $859 profit on $550 risked is a 156% return, solid yes, but nowhere near the 500% return he claimed. In addition had he just bet those 4 games ML risking the same $550 so $137 on each here's what would happened: Virginia (+207): $137 to win $283.... WIN Milwaukee (+563): $137 to win $771....LOSS Washington State (+476): $137 to win $652....LOSS Dallas Mavericks (+818): $137 to win $1120...WIN Profit would have been (283-137-137+1120) = $1129. That's $300 more than he actually made on the day. Obviously the allure is days where he hits 3 or all 4 plays but those will be few and far between. Days of 2 winners you'd be better off betting them individually. Also days where 1 ML dog hits you wouldn't lose all $550 but would be closer to breaking even or possibly still make a few bucks. Again, I'm not saying don't follow him or the system doesn't work but don't let him get away with posting false returns and run to give him your money. It's no secret ML dogs can pay well but picking 50% like he did yesterday will not last. |
theparlaypicker | 297 |
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All public bets and most on the road favorites
Vegas's wet dream. Don't expect many tips today big guy. bol
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slayer12 | 2 |
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I am a bit hungover and don’t have the energy for a long write up. Toledo -7.5 at Buffalo Don’t be scared by the reverse line movement. Dropping from 9.5 to 7.5 isn’t that big of a deal. How this game is under 13.5 is beyond me. Toledo is a very solid team on both sides of the ball and Buffalo hasn’t scored a TD in either of its last two games. I don’t buy into the “letdown” aspect for Toledo after their big win over Cincinnati last week. These kids will be ready to play, start fast and should score 35+. Just don’t see Buffalo putting up 28. Buy the half point if you’d like but I don’t think it will be necessary. BOL
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DBobs | 16 |
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Hit my big play and 4-0 on small plays so far. Hoping Washington pulls it out for the perfect day. Thanks for the love guys.
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DBobs | 18 |
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Last week I didn't make any "Big" plays but went undefeated (3-0-1) on my smaller plays. This week I like a couple games but will only have one big play.
San Jose St -11.5 at UTSA I expected this line to be about 17 but understand that San Jose St's big loss at Utah St last week will have some bettors scared a bit. I am not one of them. Utah St is a good team and that loss helped our line tremendously. UTSA is 5-1 but has to have one of the weakest schedules I have ever seen. Their wins are @ South Alabama, vs Texas A&M-Commerce, @ Georgia St, vs Northwestern Oklahoma St, @ New Mexico St. Last week they got blown out 34-14 at Rice. I think that game was a pretty good preview of the rest of their season. Their stats are extremely inflated because of their soft schedule. San Jose St was overrated last week after opening 5-0 ats. I correctly bet against them last week but now think they are underrated as the books have overreacted to that loss. I expect them to get up by 21 or so and cruise to a victory. Smaller plays. Fade or follow. Washington +7.5 at Arizona. Love having the hook here. Expect a close game that could go either way but within a TD. Rutgers -4 at Temple. This game screams trap game. A 6-0 Rutgers team ranked 15th vs a mediocre 3-2 Temple team only laying 4? Call me a sucker but I think Rutgers defense is too good to lose this game. Kansas St +2.5 at West Virginia K St/WVU under 72.5 WVU team total under 38 Couldn't decide which of these I liked most so taking all 3 small. K St has a good defense and think they will give Geno Smith trouble. Maybe even bait him into throwing his first pick of the year. BOL |
DBobs | 18 |
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Sorry guys. When I go big, I go huge but this week I just don't see anything I love. Haven't had the time this week to properly research so it's not worth it for me to throw a large chunk of cash on any games this week.
Having said that I will be making several small plays to get me through the day. Feel free to tail or fade. Generally I do very well on my large plays and go about 50/50 on the rest. Wisconsin -1 at Purdue Utah St +3 at San Jose St Stanford +7 at Notre Dame Middle Tennessee -1.5 at FIU BOL |
DBobs | 6 |
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For example this week if you parlayed the giants -415 and the texans -385 you can bet 100 to win 56. Instead I teased them both to -2 and 100 pays 91. Of course occasionally the favorite will only win by 1 or 2 and you get burned but over the long run it is a much better option.
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Q_the_money | 10 |
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Actually teasers can be very profitable when used correctly. You should only tease when you can cross both key numbers (3 and 7). I love teasing teams favored by 7-8.5 down to 1-2.5. You are basically betting the same thing as a ml parlay on the favorites but with a much better payout.
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Q_the_money | 10 |
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DBobs | 12 |
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Line is down to +1. Gotta like the late action on my side.
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DBobs | 12 |
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Line is down to +1. Gotta like the late action on my side.
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DBobs | 12 |
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SMU +2.5 at UTEP
Just about a perfect storm of factors here. Firstly, if this game were played week 1 I think SMU would be about a 7 point favorite. That means either SMU must've played worse than expected so far or UTEP has exceeded expectations. For the most part I think both have done about what one would expect. SMU is 2-2 ats and UTEP is 2-3 ats. I know UTEP backers will say they played Oklahoma and Wisconsin close but I'm not sold. They ended up losing to Oklahoma 24-7 and their only score was a punt blocked returned for a touchdown. They lost 37-26 to Wisky as 17.5 point dogs but it's clear it's a down year for the Badgers. SMU's only bad loss was vs Texas A&M where they were clearly outmatched. They only loss to TCU by 8 last week by 8 despite 6 turnovers. Gilbert has been moving the ball well but does need to cut back on his interceptions. I think he will be able to put up points with relative ease against UTEP's secondary. Second, the public is all over UTEP with 63% of the covers community picking them to cover. This plus the fact that the line is 2.5 (my favorite number to take a dog) makes it seem like Vegas is begging for money on UTEP. I think SMU will start conference play with a TD+ win on the road but will gladly take the 2.5 points insurance. BOL |
DBobs | 12 |
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I agree there is good value in VT. While they've looked terrible the fact of the matter is they have a habit of losing a bad game or two early (JMU and ECU come to mind) and then turning it on for ACC play.
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RBanks | 2 |
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Northwestern let them back in the game but I can't argue with the result.
Let's go ULM. |
DBobs | 9 |
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Both of these games jumped out at me as being a touchdown too low for the favorite and both of these games the mass majority of the public is with me which I normally hate but hey even the suckers get paid from time to time. I've seen enough of all 4 of these teams to feel like we are getting great value so here goes...
Northwestern -11 vs Indiana Take a look at Indiana's page on espn. Here are their national stats rankings for the year: 13th in passing yards. 31st in rushing yards. 33rd in points for. 45th in points against. Pretty solid stats right? Only problem is they've played Indiana St, Massachusetts and Ball St. These stats mean nothing to me. They are a garbage team who's played even worse teams. They will be lucky to win one Big Ten game this year and won't be to keep it close against a much improved Northwestern squad with great momentum right now. I like Northwestern to open their Big Ten slate with a dominating performance and to go up by 3 TDs by the 3rd quarter then coast to a 17+ victory. ULM -20 at Tulane ULM has scored an average of 34.7 points a game against solid opponents in Arkansas, Auburn and Baylor. They will easily score 42+ against Tulane's awful defense. They've scored 22 points total in their first 3 games. The team is in shambles. Even if their offense begins to click they have no shot at keeping pace with ULM's fire power. Again I hate betting with the public, especially on heavy favorites but these 2 games seem too good to be true. Perhaps Vegas knows something I don't but I'll take my chances this week. BOL |
DBobs | 9 |
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Miami Fl +14 at Georgia Tech
Simply put this line is way too high for two mediocre ACC teams. GT has had one blow out win (vs UVA) and Miami has had one blow out loss (at Kansas St) and as always the public's "what have you done for me lately" mentality has produced a juicy line at 14 instead of what I think it should be, about 6.5. Teams who run the triple option like GT generally do very well against the same teams over the years and very poorly against others. It all depends on the defensive coaching schemes and athletic ability of the defense. Miami has defended very well against GT in recent years. I know Al Golden has only been there one year but someone somewhere in the organization has seen this offense enough times to know how to slow it down. In their last three meetings GT has scored 7, 10 and 17 points against the Hurricanes. I might go small on the under as well but I am going big on Miami to keep it close. BOL
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DBobs | 2 |
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Prop I like which is similar is Buffalo total first downs -1.5 vs Kent St first downs. Oliver will pound the ball and continually move the chains. Kent St is great at kickoff returns and is more likely to have a few big plays with Archer.
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star22 | 6 |
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I like what you are doing here Percentages. Anyone on this site who thinks they have the time or resources to outresearch Vegas is crazy. They set the lines so they get action where they want it. Of course it won't hit all the time and you will be sure to hear about when it doesn't but keep doing your thing.
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Percentages | 31 |
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