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In UCLA write up meant to say "against a team that can do one thing ESPECIALLY WELL on DEFENSE -- RUSH THE PASSER." ... in reference to UCLA.
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Chemical80 | 5 |
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College: 7-4 +2.60 units
NFL: 4-2-1 +1.80 units ... But first a note: I've had a very successful run in bowl season for the past several years. Means little to you, I know. And you may not even believe it. Don't care. Bowl season used to be an obliteration for me. I spent my teens and 20s buried with the book before the Jan. 1 games ever arrived. Fortunately, I learned from my mistakes and got a good grasp on how a typical bowl season flows. For me, cashing a bowl ticket is better than cashing a regular-season ticket, even if it's for less money. I know that's not how "pros" think, but I don't give a fuck what or how "pros" think. I bet for extra income and personal enjoyment. I get my rocks off my own way. I enjoy bowl season as my favorite time of year and I enjoy saying "I cashed a ticket on the Sugar Bowl" almost as much as I enjoy the money. That's just how it is. Anyway, this bowl season sucks. There are opportunities out there, however. But overall, it sucks and the usual things that make a bowl season flow are just not there. You can thank Ohio St. and Penn St. not being bowl eligible for this. It caused a trickle-down effect that ruined just about everything. Nonetheless, we move forward ... San Diego St. +2 1/2 (Poinsettia Bowl) -- Not the match up we were hoping for with San Diego St. We wanted both the Aztecs, and similar story San Jose St., to be playing unmotivated and unsuspecting PAC-12 teams. Instead, we get SDSU going against one of the most emotionally mature teams out there in BYU. And whatever home-field edge there may have been is blunted by the fact that BYU fans travel well because they have nothing better to do in life. Still, though, we feel there is reasonable room to find a bet getting the Aztecs taking a full 3 points in a game that if somehow BYU wins will be close. San Diego St. brings by far the better resume to this setting. Not only that, the Aztecs are a more complete football team, meaning they have both a solid offense AND defense. There are common opponents on the docket to work with. BYU went to Boise and managed just 6 points in a 7-6 loss. San Diego St. left Boise with a 21-19 win. Big deal, you say? Well when you consider that BYU had a +5 turnover edge vs. Boise and San Diego St.'s turnover edge was even, then you start to see why that game matters and why it shows an ongoing problem for the Cougars the entire season -- they couldn't move the ball consistently on good defenses. A good defense is what San Diego St. will bring to this setting and the Aztecs are the more trustworthy side on offense. Getting 3 (you should still be able to even with some extra juice) with the better team is a must take. We don't think this will be a blowout either way, but San Diego St. should be favored and not dogged. A solid play. Washington +5 (Las Vegas Bowl) -- We love that the Boise St. name still carries weight both at the windows and in terms of getting the opponent excited. But the facts are that the Broncos were nothing much this season. In every step-up game or important game, they were a bit of disappointment and it has everything to do with offense. The QB play was just not there this season. And when that wasn't good enough, there was no running game to salvage things. In fact, this is an extremely weak team across ALL the skill spots ... and that only makes sense when you see former players like Kellen Moore, Doug Martin, Austin Pettis, Titus Young on NFL rosters. The defense was still good enough to keep the team in games, although when we look at exactly the caliber of offensive team that the Broncos faced this team, we're not impressed with much other than San Diego St., which ended up beating Boise. The Broncos held down Michigan St., BYU, Fresno St., and to a degree Nevada, but none of those teams were what we'd consider better-than-average offensively this season. So, what we may have here is a Boise team that comes in believing it's a defensive team partly because of results and partly because the offense sucks. But not even that may be true once they face a team with real offensive skill talent. They'll get that here against Washington, which sports a solid QB in Price, an excellent RB in Bishop Sankey and several talented WRs who don't always live up to their physical tools with their play on the field, but you just have to close your eyes and hope they do tonight. Washington made great strides this season defensively. Yes, the Huskies had games in which they were filleted, but overall this was a better defense than last year's hopeless unit. When comparing resumes, Washington had by far the better wins (Stanford, Oregon St.) and the better overall SOS (seven bowls teams to Boise's six, but Washington faced two BCS bowls teams and LSU). Both teams figure to have plenty of motivation, so we don't expect either team to be flat. But we do expect the Huskies to be better and capable of more things. Boise's offense won't be a tough task for the UW defense. Washington's offense has arguably the best overall skill talent that Boise faced this season. Wrong team is favored here and getting this many points in a game that the Huskies should control is very, very generous. Lite snack on the money line suggested. UCLA PK (Holiday Bowl) -- We'll put it to you like this, it took one of the greatest offenses we may ever see playing indoors and on carpet to get Baylor home against Washington in last year's Alamo Bowl. The record will show the Bears covered the game, but we all know it was somewhat lucky and that they trailed by 18 points in the second half. Why does any of that matter? Well, we think it shows just how bad Baylor is on defense ... that the Bears needed an all-time performance from an all-time offense on a preferred surface/dome in their home state to get a bowl win that was very hard fought and in doubt until way late. Fast forward to this season. The Bears are still very good on offense, but not as good. The Bears are just as bad on defense. And now they have a bowl game outdoors, on grass, in the opponent's home state and against a team that can do one thing ESPECIALLY WELL on offense -- RUSH THE PASSER. UCLA is absolutely one of the best bets of bowl season. When we review resumes, we see a UCLA team that has been on the field with some excellent offenses capable of doing many things with many great players. Baylor is nothing special compared to what UCLA in USC's QB/WRs, Stanford's RB/OL, Arizona's QB/SCHEME. We won't even mention Nebraska, Oregon St. and Arizona St. The Bruins bring the far better resume, far better defense, far better running game to this game. Baylor brings one thing, an outstanding offense. But that kind of offense with these types of skill players are really nothing that UCLA hasn't already seen this season. There will be no culture shock. Meanwhile, UCLA's own offense figures to have a field day with Baylor's defense. QB Hundley isn't ever mentioned in the same convo as other frosh QBs like Golson, Manziel and Mariota, but he's not far off. The Bruins have one of the nation's top RBs in Franklin. There is a slight concern about motivation, but we think that Jim Mora isn't the kind of coach to let his team be flat for a bowl game. As game day draws near, the idea of having the entire national stage to themselves in a night game on ESPN will become quite appealing for the UCLA players. This is our biggest bet of bowl season. |
Chemical80 | 5 |
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Adding ...
Nebraska -3 -- We're not a fan of either team right now, but if you pit them against each other, we'll side with the Cornhuskers in a game that may get ugly. Wisconsin had a nice hot streak in the middle of the season. But once the Badgers were back in against quality competition, vs. Ohio St. and Penn St. they wound up with Ls. In fact, that's been the case any time this team has played quality competition this season. The problem is twofold now. The Badgers are weak at QB and WR. And their defense is a major concern heading into this situation. Basically, this team is a good ground game and that's about it. While Nebraska is no great shakes, they can move the ball and play defense at a slightly higher level than Wisky. This call really hinges on our perception of what sort of condition both physically and mentally each team will be in. For Wisconsin, this is a trip back to the title game. For Nebraska, it's an exciting new adventure. Never underestimate how college teams can under-perform when taking the business-like approach and can over-perform when excited. And as much as we hate to say it, and factor this in, but can you really see Wisconsin in a third straight Rose Bowl? UCLA +9 -- We had Stanford last week because much of that call revolved around the fact that a program that conducts itself like an NFL team was much better equipped to fire a good effort fresh off a huge win the week prior. UCLA was quite the opposite, and it showed. But this week, the roles are somewhat reversed and the mental focus shifts in a big way for Stanford. Think about it, Stanford is a very methodical team with smart players and an NFL mentality. They are not, however, loaded with the type of skill players who can produce a big margin. And whereas the professional approach worked well last week, this week it may actually hurt in the sense that this could be a very workmanlike performance not conducive to covering big numbers. In general, it takes a massive talent gap for a team to turn around a week after routing an opponent and go out and do it again. UCLA can take what it did wrong last week and improve. We don't see that same aspect being so fruitful for Stanford. Not sure if UCLA can win this game, but they have more than enough to stay within the number and give the Cardinal a scare. Again, just think about what the oddsmaker is asking the Cardinal to do. |
Chemical80 | 2 |
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Record: 2-1-1
Bengals -1 1/2 -- Effort vs. no effort here. Can't be any more simple than that. Chasing teams on hot streaks around the sports book in the NFL is a sure path to bankruptcy, but we'll make an exception just this once because the situational edge to Bengals is so strong and the match ups also work in their favor, too. When a team, especially the Cincy D, is this young and is showing major signs of strength, the sky really is the limit. Meanwhile, the Cincy offense is showing nice balance and will have a major match up edge when it takes to the air against a Chargers' secondary that couldn't stop the pass to begin with and now has injury issues in the secondary. San Diego has no type of home-field edge. The Chargers had so many tickets left unsold last week that the game was blacked out in Southern California. Things go from bad to worse when a young with ample confidence hits town while on a playoff push and the very last bit of juice in the Chargers' lemon was squeezed in a near five-quarter game. Broncos -7 -- The Bucs simply cannot stop the pass. We said it in Week 1 and we're saying it now. Heck, it's not even the same secondary thanks to injury, trades and drug suspensions (and a combo of two or all three in some players' cases). Tampa had a nice midseason run. Their effort should be commended as they play hard for rah-rah guy Greg Schiano, who is still very much behind the curve as far as in-game management at the NFL and Xs and Os. All of that gets magnified with a road trip to the Broncos and the reason for it is that without max effort, Tampa is simply not a good enough to hang with the league's elite and we don't see a team going from the swamp to the altitude while facing a QB that can exploit what they cannot stop is going to lead to anything other than an easy win. Sad to see McGahee go down for the Broncos, but it actually creates a great situation for us because a Broncos offense that strives for excellence and precision with Manning at QB will be taking the insertion of a new RB as a challenge to not interrupt their flow. While most may think the Broncos will produce one of their poorer offensive showings of the season, we see quite the opposite as Manning gets his unit to rise to the occasion. Tampa needed a slew of breaks to beat the Chargers a few weeks ago (punt and INT returns for TD). Then made an improbable late-game rally to beat the Panthers in OT. Last week was a grinder and probably the last good effort we'll see out of this team for a good few weeks if not the entire season. This one gets ugly. |
Chemical80 | 8 |
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CFB: 5-3 +1.70 units
Georgia +7 1/2 -- Let's get something right out of the way -- this is weakest Alabama edition of the past four years. You have the '09 national title team, the '10 team that whipped Michigan St. in the bowl, the '11 national title team and now this one. What's the big difference? Quite a bit. It starts with a lack of NFL-caliber in the skill spots. The previous teams mentioned had guys like Julio Jones, McElroy, Ingram and Richardson. This offense has a serviceable QB, an overweight and slow RB in Lacy, an up-and-comer in RB Yeldon and nothing special at WR whatsoever, and that's when three of the top four targets are actually healthy and playing. Even the defense, we'd argue, is not as good talent-wise as the past few years. Still good. And very good for "this season" which has been a weak one, in our opinion, across the board in terms of skill players. And that's kinda the story of the SEC. You have five excellent defensive teams (Bama, Georgia, LSU, Florida and South Caro) and one team with a good defense and incredible QB (A&M). What we're trying to do is paint the picture that this has been a defensive conference partly because the stop units mentioned above are that good and partly because outside of A&M and Tennessee (on its very best and healthiest day) there isn't much in the way of good offenses. Georgia is working with a defense that features, by our count, up to six NFL players. Offensively, the Dawgs lack perimeter play makers, but have done well to get their running game going. We don't see much difference talent-wise between QBs McCarron and Murray. When picking Georgia last week, we talked about how we were nervous laying points with HC Richt, but did it anyway. Now, we've got Richt right where we want him -- as an underdog. It took quite a while due to suspensions and injuries to get this Georgia defense together and thriving as a whole, but now that it is, they are well-equipped to put major heat on Bama in this setting. Our trouble with this line is that the public is allowing the oddsmakers to price this league just as it has done the past few years. Hence, the line on this game. It's high. Too high. Given the perceived flow and the lack of skill players or desire by the coaches to try anything crazy with so much on the line, what you have is a defensive struggle in the making that fits right into the same type of game we've seen quite a bit this season in this conference. 17-10. 14-10. 20-17. 13-10. 17-13. Ring a bell? |
Chemical80 | 2 |
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I just returned to posting this week. My picks for last week are right here https://www.covers.com/postingforum/POST01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=101482507
You clearly know your stuff, too. Although we disagree about the meaning of the same facts. I see the teams that Ohio St. beat in 2002 as being far better teams (for that season) than what ND beat this season. Penn St.'s defense in 02 was incredible, that's why it was a game Chris Gamble won with a pick return. Oklahoma will play in a Jan. 1 bowl (or beyond), but they will be heavy 'dogs and are clearly nothing to speak of. USC came up extremely weak. Michigan probably gets into a Jan. 1 bowl. Again, the teams ND beat this year, in my opinion, are nowhere near what Ohio St. beat in 2002 (in relation to what they meant this season). But between now and when ND takes field for BCS title game we will see just how weak or soft these teams ND beat are by how they do in their bowls. If we see them outperforming, then yeah, perhaps it will be a buy sign. |
gridironguy | 33 |
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Coupla things ...
1. Notre Dame has been favored in all but one of its games this season (no lack of respect there). 2. 2002 Ohio St. was far and away a much better team than this ND team. Look at their roster and how many of those guys were in the NFL. They beat Texas Tech (Tangerine Bowl), Washington St. (Rose Bowl), Penn St. (Citrus Bowl), Michigan (W Outback Bowl), Minnesota (W Music City Bowl), Purdue (W Sun Bowl), Wisconsin (W Alamo Bowl). It became clear as the 2002-03 bowl season went on that the Buckeyes had beaten (and really limited in terms of points) some very good teams. No fluke whatsoever and one of the biggest and best bets I ever made vs. Miami in title game, |
gridironguy | 33 |
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Adding ...
San Jose St. -4 -- Late-changing perceptions in teams make this a bet despite the fact that this line would be laughed at back in Sept. when La. Tech was a pointspread darling and SJ St. was still an unknown. But this setting just doesn't work very well for La. Tech. The Bulldogs come cross country to play against an opponent that has the ability to slow their offense to a crawl. The strength of a very good SJ State "D" is against the pass. They can pressure and cover. Meanwhile. SJ State's own offense under QB Fales is nothing to sneeze at. The home field has become something of a strength and you can expect another capacity crowd, similar to what was there for the BYU win last week. La. Tech is a precision team that needs tempo and isn't going to push anyone around. With their bubble burst last week, they aren't likely to get that here. Michigan +4 -- (Please wait this line out as close to kickoff as possible (unless it ticks back down to 3 1/2) , but in order to save time, I will post now). We've been a big fan all season of Ohio St. in BigTen match ups where its speed will drive the other team crazy. The Buckeyes are by far the fastest team in the conference on defense and have an athletic QB, which goes a long way against plodding BigTen defenses ... EXCEPT WHEN YOU PLAY MICHIGAN. The Wolverines are not as fast as Ohio St. but they aren't too far behind. They also have experience with mobile QBs because they have one on their very own roster. Michigan has plenty of skill players to test this Ohio St. defense in a manner that it hasn't had to face yet in the BigTen. We like the fact that our vibe is that we're bucking plenty of public money who see the Buckeyes at home with a cheap line and want in. This one figures to be a nailbiter that 'dog will be in all the way to the gun. (Worth a lite snack on the ML, too). |
Chemical80 | 5 |
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Adding ...
Florida +8 -- Let's review the resumes of these two teams and see if there's anything left to be said. Florida: Wins over A&M, LSU, South Carolina. A giveaway-filled loss to Georgia. Florida St.: Wins over Clemson (allowed 37 points) and Miami (allowed 20 points). Lost at Va. Tech. So how, exactly, are the Noles eight-point favorites over Florida? Well, it goes back to an idea spawned in August when Phil Steele, clearly creaming over the FSU schedule, called them the No. 1 team in the country. Fact is, the Noles couldn't even take advantage of that weak schedule to be unbeaten and on the verge of flopping into the national title game. The reality is that FSU is not even a top-10 team. Heck, one computer the BCS uses doesn't even have them in the Top 25! Just think about it, the entire season everyone has been waiting for this breakout performance from FSU that has not come. And the media and other people are doing it again THIS WEEK! That's bad news when you're playing BY FAR the best defense you've played all season. But forget all that for a second, the things we'd like to see happen that would tell us the Noles are an improving team at the right team of year are simply not there. How could they be? Instead of the roster getting better, it got worse by having season-ending injuries to the best offensive weapon in RB Chris Thompson and top defensive player in DE Brandon Jenkins. So again, how or why, exactly is FSU in this price range? This is still a one-loss SEC opponent with the best defense that FSU will have faced all year. Perhaps people are putting too much stock in the Gators' last two games, which were lackluster wins over La. Lafayette and Jacksonsville St. But you have to remember that QB Driskel was out and this type of thing happened before when the Gators scooted by Bowling Green but followed that ho-hum effort with a win at Texas A&M the following week, in which they held Johnny Football down in the second half and allowed just 17 points! How good does that win look now? You gonna tell us EJ Manuel is better than Johnny Football? Yes, the situation somewhat favors FSU in that they're at home, they haven't had a breakout performance (yet) and they catch the Gators with a gimpy QB. But even when Florida has played poorly and tried to give games away, i.e. SIX turnovers vs. Georgia, the defense was so good that they were right there at the end of the game with a chance to win it (see Georgia game). Florida St.'s best weapon is team speed ... but that's something that seems to be lost on classy SEC teams and it hasn't gone far enough against substantially slower teams anyway this season. ***Our one cause for pause is that these FSU-FLA games in recent years have had arguably the strangest flows of any games we'll chart in a given season. They often lack flow and one or two mistakes that are taken back to the house can easily get one of these teams out of their rhythm and produce an odd score where a team's scoreboard count may not reflect its stat sheet. Just an oddity that always seems to happen when these two meet. Let's hope that either it's the Gators on the good end of the wildness or that this one is allowed to settle into a somewhat normal game flow. We would also recommend taking a lite snack on the Gators on the money line. |
Chemical80 | 5 |
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Adding ...
Browns +1 -- We saw the best shot the Steelers could muster in their dilapidated state on Sunday night. Now things get even worse QB Leftwich out and QB Batch in. Not to mention there are WR issues to the point that Plax has been brought in. There's no doubt the Steelers have been resourceful and will rely on their ground game and defense to put them in position to win, but this is the NFL and you can't have such obvious glaring weaknesses and hope to survive ... especially on the road. The problem for the Steelers is that even at near full strength, with Big Ben under center, they weren't that good. Savvy, yes. But good, no. The offensive line is quite shaky. The defense is older than ever. This was going to be a good game regardless. The Browns have been on the improve, slowly but surely. There's still one thing the Clev defense cannot stop and that's the pass. But are we really sweating that here with Batch under center for PIT and Haden back in the secondary for the Browns? The Steelers simply aren't going anywhere on offense against a very good young defense. The Browns offense has a legitimate weapon it can ride in RB Richardson. If QB Weeden avoids mistakes, something he's gotten better at, then Cleveland can turn this into an absolute ambush. The home-field edge given the visitor will be a factor. This one should be much easier than this line expects for the home team. |
Chemical80 | 6 |
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Adding ...
Washington -13 -- This line appears cheap considering the old, overused term "two teams heading in opposite directions" applies in a big bad way here. Mike Leach is on his way out at Wazzu. There's no doubt about it. The very best playmaker the team had in WR Wilson kicked rocks along with several others. Wazzu may give a max effort here, but the attrition is so bad that it won't matter. Meanwhile, the Huskies' defensive improvements have been noted, as has a running game that's really come on strong. Outgoing coach and outgoing players under these circumstances don't usually bring out the best a team has to offer. Georgia -13 -- Much is being made about how Georgia saw the option last week and will be prepared for it. That's great and all, but even better is that we see about six NFL players on the Bulldogs defense and absolutely ZERO NFL players on the Ga. Tech offense. This becomes a matter of getting Ga. Tech in a hole and then watching the hysterics as they try to rally out of it. Georgia is legitimately a top-5 team in our estimation and a team we'll be looking to back come bowl season. We are breaking the Law of Richt here and laying points with a coach who is best bet when he's getting them. Nonetheless, the weakest Ga. Tech team in years gets fully exposed by a team posturing for big things down the road. Remember, it's parlay time for Georgia -- win big here, win big in the SEC title game, then hope for a BCS title game berth. You and I know it won't happen, but don't tell them that. |
Chemical80 | 5 |
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Record on Covers ...
NFL: 0-1 NY Giants -2 1/2 -- The Packers' JV team somehow won on the road last week, but asking them to do so again against an even better opponent is a very tall task. Even when healthy, the reason why GB has trouble with the Giants is because the Giants can rush the passer, if nothing else. Pressure Rodgers and there's no run game to bail him out. Meanwhile, the GB is a shell of what it could be with even more key cogs dropping like flies. The Lions could not exploit it last week. Just think about where that game would have gone if QB Stafford's pass isn't a step behind TE Scheffler, who tips it up in the air for a GB DB to pick off and take back to the house. Pure reindeer shit. Having had their bye week, the Giants can start anew after entering the break with more questions than answers. The Packer name will have their full attention, but the Packer reality will be very easy to overcome. Falcons -1 AND Falcons/Bucs OVER 48 1/2 -- The Falcons cannot run the ball. They have one way to go on offense and that's fast thru the air. This is bad news for a Bucs team that cannot stop the pass because it's DBs are a mash unit and that's after their best player was dealt to the Pats and second-best cover guy was suspended for hitting the RX too hard. Then last week, their remaining best cover guy -- Eric Wright -- re-aggravated his achilles injury and likely won't play. Not what you want if you're facing Matt Ryan fresh off a six-INT showing. The Falcons, however, have little chance of putting a dent in Tampa's offense. Doogie Martin will get his and QB Freeman has become quite efficient. This game should be played at a rapid pace with both teams doing on offense what the opposing defense has the most trouble stopping. This one flies over ... and we think the Falcs get the 'W', too, because our impression of the Bucs have been that they've been very fortunate during this streak they're on. A combo of playing bad or overrated teams who were all-too-willing to hand them the game with key mistakes has been the catalyst of their run more than anything. Last week's rally against a horrible Panthers team may have been the final hurrah in this tired act. |
Chemical80 | 6 |
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Record on Covers ...
NFL: 0-1 NY Giants -2 1/2 -- The Packers' JV team somehow won on the road last week, but asking them to do so again against an even better opponent is a very tall task. Even when healthy, the reason why GB has trouble with the Giants is because the Giants can rush the passer, if nothing else. Pressure Rodgers and there's no run game to bail him out. Meanwhile, the GB is a shell of what it could be with even more key cogs dropping like flies. The Lions could not exploit it last week. Just think about where that game would have gone if QB Stafford's pass isn't a step behind TE Scheffler, who tips it up in the air for a GB DB to pick off and take back to the house. Pure reindeer shit. Having had their bye week, the Giants can start anew after entering the break with more questions than answers. The Packer name will have their full attention, but the Packer reality will be very easy to overcome. Falcons -1 AND Falcons/Bucs OVER 48 1/2 -- The Falcons cannot run the ball. They have one way to go on offense and that's fast thru the air. This is bad news for a Bucs team that cannot stop the pass because it's DBs are a mash unit and that's after their best player was dealt to the Pats and second-best cover guy was suspended for hitting the RX too hard. Then last week, their remaining best cover guy -- Eric Wright -- re-aggravated his achilles injury and likely won't play. Not what you want if you're facing Matt Ryan fresh off a six-INT showing. The Falcons, however, have little chance of putting a dent in Tampa's offense. Doogie Martin will get his and QB Freeman has become quite efficient. This game should be played at a rapid pace with both teams doing on offense what the opposing defense has the most trouble stopping. This one flies over ... and we think the Falcs get the 'W', too, because our impression of the Bucs have been that they've been very fortunate during this streak they're on. A combo of playing bad or overrated teams who were all-too-willing to hand them the game with key mistakes has been the catalyst of their run more than anything. Last week's rally against a horrible Panthers team may have been the final hurrah in this tired act. |
Chemical80 | 2 |
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Record on Covers ...
CFB: 0-0 Stanford -2 -- Who do you trust more to not be hung over? I'd say it's pretty obvious. This is one of few times that Stanford's pro-style demeanor can pay off. They are one of the more business-like teams we've seen in years. Conversely, there's simply no trusting UCLA in this spot. The magnitude of the win over USC cannot be oversold enough. Now the Bruins have had all week to be at home and hear about themselves as the new kings of L.A. Success is very new to these players. Not so with Stanford. OK fine, that takes care of the mental focus. But the on-the-field match-ups are also bad news for UCLA. Stanford just saw this type of offense last week, only with better players. The Cardinal have a very legit defense that can and will crowd the line of scrimmage and although the Bruins had a nice day passing last week, there are simply no burners on the outside to make opponents sweat. Stanford's defense has been for real for just about the entire season. The Cardinal offense is now starting to catch up. QB Hogan is getting better and better and we expect him to get better with each passing snap. It would take a full focus by UCLA to win this game and we just don't see that as being there. You get the better defense, the better running game and the smarter players at one of the weakest venues for a home team in the country. Much of what happened last week between UCLA-USC was a result of how bad USC is and it being fully exposed. Much of what happened last week between Stanford-Oregon was legitimately because of Stanford. Notre Dame -6 1/2 -- USC has been the gift that keeps giving this season. They remind us of the Chargers or Saints in the sense that once people get something stuck in their mind, they don't let go. USC was never a premier team this year. QB Barkley is a statue with limited mobility who happened to be blessed with excellent WRs. The offensive line has been horrible. The defense is below average with a defensive coordinator who the game has clearly has passed by. Now you get rid of the team's ability to get the ball to its best players with Barkley being out and what are you left with? Seriously? Can't rely on the ground game with Silas Redd tapping out last week numerous times and McNeal too small to be trusted for 20+ carries. The offensive stinks to begin with and now is tasked with protecting an even bigger statue in QB Wittek (245 lbs (we'll take the over)) wearing a knee brace. How can this unit be expected to do ANYTHING against the best defense they've seen all season and arguably the best defense in the country? ND won't do anything too elaborate on offense, which should actually help Grandpa Monte out a bit. But the Irish are probably not going to provide the turnovers that USC would need to keep this game competitive. At the end of the season with things degenerating quickly, a defense can often quit when pitted against a physical opponent. Notre Dame needs this game in a big, bad way as it's essentially a national title game qualifier. There's not much USC can do to get in the way. Wyoming +7 -- Was hoping weather would be more of a factor on Saturday afternoon in Laramie. But it looks like San Diego St. will have only the altitude to deal with. Nonetheless, the underdog has plenty going for it. It is our belief that SDSU cannot stop the pass when it actually faces a legit passer. We've seen that at times this season, but not often because there just aren't many legit passing teams on SDSU's slate this season. Cowboys QB Brett Smith isn't going to be confused with Joe Montana, but he's good enough for us to back getting a full TD at home in a game that just sets up terribly for the visitor. There will be no bowl for Wyoming this season, so upsetting a conference leader will have to do. The Cowboys have avoided turnovers quite well over their last three games. So you give us a solid passing game, a solid home field, a potentially flat visitor and a full TD cushion in a very dangerous spot, and we'll take a Wyoming team that won last year's game in San Diego outright. |
Chemical80 | 5 |
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CFB: 0-0
NFL: 0-0 Bears +3 1/2 -- Won't lie to you, I got lucky because one my offshores had a line up on this at +6 1/2 last night and I got half my bet down. I truly thought Smith would play and was hoping he would because taking a TD (with added juice) was shaping up to be my best of the NFL season. It was a stroke of luck that I bet it before the Smith announcement. Now, it's not as nice. I really wanted the dynamic of the Niners having their guy and the Bears not having theirs. That woulda meant taking 6 1/2 or 7. Campbell vs. Smith is just as fine with me as Campbell vs. Kap, especially if I'm getting three more points. I guess you have to establish how much a starting QB means to his particular team. Last night, we saw Leftwich prove to be a major step back when compared to Big Ben. I don't think we'll see that here. Cutler, a considerable amount of the time, hurts his team. His wild play and INTs simply don't fit into the brand of football the Bears want to play, which is not making mistakes while forcing the opponent to make several. Jason Campbell is far from helpless. In fact, a toned-down game plan of running the ball and taking what the defense gives in the passing game may actually make Chicago a better team. Plus, Campbell isn't a statue and has enough moves to create, if need be. The point of this bet is getting the Bears defense vs. the Niners offense. Even with Smith, I like this matchup. I see a very conservative "wait the other guy out" approach by both coaches tonight, which makes any points offered very generous. I thought the Niners looked awful last week vs. a Rams team that really wasn't heading in the right direction (and that got proven yesterday). Meanwhile, the Bears are off a humbling loss to Houston. If Campbell isn't out there putting the team in bad spots like Cutler has been known to do, and the defense is able to pressure a shaky Smith into some mistakes and/or simply not give up the big play, then the Bears look like a great candidate to not only cover, but likely get the W as well. |
Chemical80 | 1 |
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David Malinsky has to be part of it. Nobody can break things down like he and Teddy. Please don't ruin this, Covers.
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PitchBlack2011 | 14 |
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If anybody ever asks me "why are you still watching?" or says "it's over, they're just running out the clock" ... I will point to my Iowa and Washington bets.
And by the way Ferentz, with your QB clearly concussed and your DC calling his last game, YOU DON'T USE YOUR FINAL TWO TIMEOUTS DOWN BY 10! |
Chemical80 | 2 |
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8 isn't a key number? 21-13. 24-16. It's not 3,4,6 or 7. But I still think 8 is a football number.
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Chemical80 | 16 |
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Seriously, what could people see in this game to be betting with such conviction? I bet Nevada at +6 (like an idiot) thinking it was great value. When the line went to +9 1/2 (at my place) I was thinking somebody was hurt. Obviously, the sharps (yes, no?) came back hard on Nevada. Very odd movement on this game. I guess bettors on both sides really think they know something.
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Chemical80 | 16 |
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I guess people are really opinionated about this game. How did it ever go from -6 to -9 1/2 in the first place? Now back down to -7? Just incredible how this thing has moved without the presence of any major news. I guess this is the game where bettors are drawing a line in the sand.
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Chemical80 | 16 |
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