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@Shehriar You came to the right place.. happy new year! |
Bridge1 | 32 |
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HEISMAN BEHREN MORTON 200-1 Well its prob DOA in a major way but I do feel like Behren was the heir apparent for Kitley since his FR year and here we are a couple years later he's the clear #1 QB to run Kit's system ... now all we need to do is keep the guy on his feet and run the system effectively .. we'd be getting a wayyyy lower price on this one if T-TECH didn't have so many QB issues over the years and trouble developing the roster into Kitley's system.. Alas we're getting a monster number for what could be a MONSTER year, recall how this went for Kit at W.KY .. not to compare B-MORT to "the great one" but I don't think we've quite seen this system really take off yet and we can at least say if the shoe fits then things should click in a major way .. Problems we might encounter w this pick are low name recognition not to mention team recognition .. We also need to make a major, and I mean MAJOR, run in the B-12, maybe even run the table to get the spotlight on us in a way we'll be taking home the hardware .. well at 200-1 I can take a stab like this BOL maxing us out at a 5k win means 25 down .. and surprisingly still seeing it at 200 even after I smacked it, I'd hit it again if they'd let me have a little more fun but can't do it so first come first serve.. get it while its hot!! .. seeing caesars as low as 75x, I'd try to shop for no lower than 150 and becomes a bit of a stretch below that number .. good luck! |
Bridge1 | 32 |
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CONF ARIZONA STATE 100-1 Homer bet alert .. but in fairness I never go outta my way to post a bet about these guys it would be too embarrassing and this one might end that way too .. that said we had a team LY off a real devastating couple years as the Herm experiment came to an ugly end .. we now have a great group of coaches on board and some talent on the roster .. but with the self imposed bowl ban it was an easy call pre-ssn last yr to say these guys weren't playin for wins or even to look good coach dillingham and crew were very much about building to year 2 and beyond .. and that's def what it looked like lol .. they had various injury problems and guys hitting the portal .. lotta young guys .. TON of guys from the portal .. they had 2 OL's star the whole season and 9 others play at least starting level snaps for at least 1 game total carousel in the unit .. True FR Rashada started 3 games and got injured Bourgette started a bunch more, Pyne and Conover got significant snaps in a few other games .. the D wasn't great but were able to put a few surprise games together when healthy .. late in the year things turned ugly rightfully so at some point they were really down to the wire w who was left .. So we know last year wasn't a team playin to win necessarily and we can at least bank on a big turnaround because its now an experienced team with renewed goals and there's at least something to like coming back w Rashada and Bourgette, Sakttebo at RB reminds me of that Mizzoo RB total heart n soul of the offense .. the WR unit maybe one of the best in the B12 .. can't say the OL will be one of the best but yeah you just can't look at last year .. I see the spring roster metrics and they got some biiig boys in that group .. Dilly has a reallly good group of assistants on that side and I could see things click in year 2 w this crew .. and the DC can at least draw them up a winner, dude from Wash State pitched 2 real sticky defenses w them and shoulda beat Wash on the road as like 4 TD dogs, were reallly close to a massive upset and all led by the D and yeah total meltdown late w the roster in shambles, getting backups some experience etc .. I can at least say there's a diff team showing up this year .. Schedule doesn't help us its def on the more difficult side of things .. trip to Manhattan mid November w wildcats off a bye seems like a really difficult spot but otherwise there's nothin that looks unconquerable if Dilly can really turn the page on offense and the D prob has to be a surprise .. little luck would be great .. nothing impossible though I'll take the 100X odds and have some low risk high reward fun w my boyz this year .. GO DEVILS!!! |
Bridge1 | 32 |
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CONF IOWA STATE 12-1 Picked this up at a few spots we had 14-1 at Caesars you can thank JOZ for murdering it down to 9-1 lol .. This team looks ready to rock and LY I dropped a play on them 50-1 only to have the gambling piano fall on their heads a week later .. then early losses vs Iowa, total disaster @ Ohio lose 10-7 ... got THROTTLED by OU .. welllp .. somehow someway 50-1 shot had a legitimate shot down the stretch and while it really wasn't THAT close in that spot vs UT the run game shut down totally for 3 yards, we did get an EPIC game outta FR QB Rocco Brecht hitting 75% for 320 yds .. dude in da making! Besides the prospects they got w Rocco they found a legit FR RB Sama down the stretch .. maybe a snowy day vs K-State but he went yard on them ALOT and it wasn't his only saturday with a HUGE yards per carry the guy is a tackle breaking machine and one to watch this year .. Clones got really good targets too Noel, Higgy and the TE are back .. I'd hope they find another couple guys one to watch out for is Isaiah Allston in from Army, injury kept him out much of the last couple years but he's slippery lot of teams were going after him .. think all five of the OL's are back and a couple backups that unit gotta get better I think there's reason to think they will .. only concern is losing OC Sheelasse Clones not really known for their great OC's so fingers xx'd on that but there's alot to like on that side .. D might be winding up for a real HEACOCK FASTBALL .. they were pretty darn good once again even after losing tons of their best studs .. this year they lose CB TJ Tampa to the NFL, Gerry Vaughn was a great LB .. but its 9/11 starters back and almost all the depth, ton of guys played last year units look real good .. mild concern replacing the CB but w 1 starter and 2 backups returning and a safety unit is super deep I think they'll have all the DB's they need.. Star power maybe a little bit of a question but when we see Heacock pulled a rabbit out of a hat last year gettin it done w 4 or 5 starters back 50% snaps, 10 experienced players and he's showin up w 9 starters 90% of the snaps back and over 20 very experienced you gotta like the profile! .. Schedule has FCS ND, @Iowa, Ark State in non con and nothing easy in the B12 but just the 4 roadies for em this year and easy stuff looks like @Hou, Bay, Cincy then dials up a bit @WV, UCF, T-Tech mid ssn .. the final stretch is a bit tricky @KU, @Utah, and K-State in the finale .. Its a rugged last month sure but im not seeing a sure thing bohemouth in the conf that can flat out deny the Clones another trip to the champ game .. Utah can bounce back w CAM and Kuithe back.. I like the K-State QB but overall idk if they'll be a better team .. KU yeah I don't like that road spot ... those are your odds on favs right now Clones seem like they'd fit right into that group IMO .. yeah big picture Campbell had the one down year in '22 but you look at the sitch last year and how that turned out can only grade it as another outperformer for that guy .. I think Odds 10x or better say give these guys a shot and I'm playing now, I think the odds are closer to 8 or 7 by kickoff as folks put 2 n 2 together seein a well coached group of outperformers showin up w this roster .. good luck! |
Bridge1 | 32 |
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@JozKnows Hahaaa yeah I don't know what the gentlemen's code is in here so I made on up gave you a few days to grab that .. I had Clones in the cross hairs for a little bit already Caesars w the best odds 14-1 welp someone was gunna send that number packing glad you did .. |
Bridge1 | 32 |
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@HockeyNight11 Agree buddy the depth was INSANE!!!! I hit UM HARD after that first play in H2 when I saw Wash QB hobbling it was a turkey shoot on him from then on, only real weapon got hurt pretty bad .. idk what the state of the UM roster is but my impression is the depth was very good and they'll be dangerous again .. QB is a big concern in my view.. easy to look at LY and say we just need a game manager type but JJ was legit and dynamic as a QB and really knew how to run that offense .. he could take over a game when they were in trouble like TCU or could just hand it off all game vs Penn St.. Pretty clear they weren't risking him to grab first downs unless they really needed him to and makes sense if you dominate most games and you got Indy xfer guy as a backup and pretty clear mission to win the natty last yr, yeah can't take a risk w JJ until you really have to ..... So lose his QB abilities but a guy who could run the O make it tick.. then tack on that a QB prob gotta play a bigger role this year how much idk but that creates some other questions, how good will the pass pro be?.. WR's? .. another wrinkle when you have such an elite run game its a huge blind spot knowing how strong the OC is/was at drawing up and calling pass plays and now new OC I think so that'll be interesting to see .. feels like that's a huge reason we see the post-natty or post-epic big year decline phenomenon .. even when a QB sticks around were left baffled why the team isin't close to as good and sometimes its just well you had good luck now you have bad luck but sometimes its just like well you were super elite at X last year and that covered deficiencies you had in Y and you really need to rely alot more on Y this year .. Wash probably has that issue / risk more than anyone .. LSU same thing Daniels and those WR's had super elite offense didn't need to know how good their trad run game or OL was Daniels improvised more rushing yards than their top 3 RB's .. best offense in CFB wasn't enough their D was THAT BAD!!!.. think its a wiiide range for where they ends up this year and alot of paths don't lead anywhere close to where models are putting em .. |
Bridge1 | 32 |
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@HockeyNight11 Oh and yeah BOL w Mich/Wash +11.5 .. eh I'd think about it for 7 might kick myself later I just can't do it .. Mich first roadie is reallllly late and natty rematch .. maybe Mich slaughters em but given the spot I can't be a buyer, at least not right now .. Wash at least keepin the Miss State QB ?.. if not yeah that could get ugly .. he didn't go there to play with this year's TCU team he went to sling it for Deboer.. Jed Fisch is a good replacement but he really needs a guy to sling it so if dude leaves I could see Wash def lookin like his AZ team from his first couple years.. even w DeLaura coming in they were just so horrible until they had the right QB lol .. |
Bridge1 | 32 |
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@HockeyNight11
Yeah Hock I saw the quotes I was telling the SDSU guy his natty pick thread like we just saw what the change looks like, large number of teams w a real natty shot in the final few weeks there enough to disrupt the CFP bids where I think normally we'd have at least seen OSU or UGA sneak in and wouldn't have bothered me one bit if the CFP loaded up a rematch for us in the playoff or in the NY6 .. but yeah just too many good lookin teams out there even when FSU gets struck by lightning there's too many ... And Saban musta easily had his best recruiting class ever w the I think 10 5 stars and even maybe w their worst start in forever .. 50-1 natty odds after USF I was laughing about it shoulda been buying!!.. fair to say they were a couple plays short of another natty IMO .. so he calls it a career instead of teeing up a realllly good natty shot w the roster he had .. I'll take his word for it when he says you need a new jack hustler to manage a new jack roster lol .. can bring in all the young talent to win a championship and buy their patience with the best development program on a perennial playoff contender, NFL draft, big money baller dreams .. NIL you can lock those dreams up right away basically risk free if not as an incoming freshman by like Soph year so just end up stuck recruiting your roster every year because players want the big NIL deal and other than a few instances you gotta play in order to get one .. every team can offer starting spots and sign a check .. and now maybe 24 teams AT LEAST have a reasonable shot at the playoff they can also sell so that chip is devalued significantly .. Big picture I think last year was really a bellwether of the changes in CFB, maybe the one bright side we're not looking at 2 super elite rosters dominating for years at a time.. but maybe an interesting dynamic at play with a couple top rosters able to stave off their decline and maybe more teams become like top 10~ish teams but really the rest of the world is sitting there unable to maintain a strong depth chart of 4 star players... I'll say any of the legacy super teams with a strong roster that can't make a strong natty pitch after this year prob finds themselves back in the pack real quick .. and the realllll drain may come from down below if yer a star on a non playoff contender now you don't have to hope one of a couple programs calls to have a likely playoff dream .. you got a crapload all desperate w spots open ready to sign a check lol .. very tough for the bad P5's and G5 yeah forget it getting gashed big time this cycle .. |
Bridge1 | 32 |
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@jesron1269 Hard to say .. feels like OSU / UGA will be on opposite sides of the bracket .. feels likely anyway .. the path is gunna be so treacherous this year especially thru the SEC and you need a complete team with a few champ caliber units and real depth to last thru I assume 13 games plus another 3 or 4 .. well I def want to only play 3 more lol .. and would be great if my long shot made the champ game vs another long shot .. not a 21 pt dog sure thing slaughter .. yeah dude idk .. really need UGA to be beatable and that seems totally possible w guys drafted, unsatisfied 5 stars leaving .. the DL wasn't as strong LY the pass D was still excellent and offense got better I thought w Beck .. Still looked beatable in a few games and bama did beat em .. Saw some Saban quotes today basically saying that in this era you can't hold all the Aces in the deck by being the best HC in the best program .. playing time and money is the currency and all the teams have a checkbook so it was just time for a new leader who could operate in this new era, wasn't the way he does it .. I think we could see things trend back to where consistently more like 5 or so teams every year have a legit shot, maybe not this year but soon .. seemed like we got a taste of that last year and way easier to make a case for a longer shot if there's not one or two sure thing behemoths amidst a gaggle of wannabes .. Bama 16-1 seems like long enough odds to say they're a long shot .. I can at least say In Deboer We Trust and I think he can get Milroe to be his best and still has what's left of a great roster so I think they'll be okay but their schedule is really tough, lotta teams w a bye week or FCS game right before they play them .. kinda leaning to them if anyone for the longer odds but they could be a disaster too .. Don't let me talk ya out of anything either I'd hate to seeya pick a rabbit out of a hat and you get nothing for it lol .. good luck buddy |
jesron1269 | 8 |
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@JozKnows Yeah Joz I wanted like 100 spot to take GT before spring .. word is out and books are huddled around 60ish now .. eh .. maybe I'll throw a hundo on it for fun .. There's very little about Iowa State's profile I don't like, there's some questions for the offense, new OC promoted but I'm realllly nearin decision time w them if ya catch my drift .. FYI .. nudge nudge .. |
Bridge1 | 32 |
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HEISMAN AVERY JOHNSON 40-1 I think we've seen enough and have a setup that allows us to take a 40-1 flyer on this guy .. I don't have some inside scoop on exactly Will Howard xferred to columbus where he's got a bit of competition to be the starting QB but clearly right now seems like the expected top guy.. obvi they lured him w money but I suspect the writing mighta been on the wall that this true FR can just out-game him on the field and even if he retained the starting spot he'd end up sharing more snaps with dude .. and i the ssn didn't start well Avery goes off in one game the calls for a change would come flooding in .. his stock likely wouldn't ever be this high again and cashed in at a good time with a top natty contender... well played!!! .. We obvi have limited snaps with Avery and questions loom on throwing ability but true FR shows up and can play that read option like a fiddle no shortage of the IT factor, year in the system sure thing starter now its not a stretch to think his game makes a big leap this year .. For this to win we need a real K-STATE dream type season and think we likely benefit w OU and UT gone but now we don't have the BIIIG WIN on the schedule to help us .. don't really have the name recognition yet we're gunna need to see this dude go JOHNNY FOOTBALL early in the season and steal some spotlight .. @Tulane, Arizona, OK.State (vs potential heisman RB dude) and @ Colorado .. (my heisman ticket showdown!) .. would be very helpful if both show up 5-0 and Avery has an EPIC night in boulder .. back end is not as sexy but KU at home could give him some quality air time and realllly need to pile up some stats @Hou, ASU, Cincy .. Season finale FArmageddon in Ames isin't a spot we need to pad his highlight reel .. and Need a conf championship, could be any of like 10 opponents and hope for a barn burner .. we might be a year away but B12 is ripe for a team to step up and RAMPAGE thru it and we got a dude that could potentially lead that effort .. One kinda helpful thing could be K-State's special teams, it was an unseasonably down year LY they were merely okay.. one great way to not pile up stats and lose games is to be sloppy in that department .. I'll bank on the track record that they'll get that ST mojo back and not kill possessions or lose games give us a chance at a big fun B12 run .. One concern could be a naturally slow pace of play K-State has and leads us to lower stats but if Avery is a total ball hog we should make up for that.. One open question is we really need an HC to use his guy in a way that can bring home the hardware, I can't really say if Kleiman will help facilitate a potential heisman campaign or not .. as noted above I think Coach Prime will be very helpful for that w T-HUNT .. what we need in Manhattan is what LSU coaches did LY, if Avery can go APE then kick open that cage .. what we don't need is whatever Kirby would do lol .. |
Bridge1 | 32 |
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@jesron1269 I had NMSU last year 30-1 huge bet and very nearly had no chance to hedge .. Lib was 21 pt favs on the look ahead line until NMSU beat auburn .. things came back to reality a bit but still made for a much crappier payday .. idk what the ML was but I think 15k if they won and I coulda hedged out like idk 3k max and I prob ended up just getting like half of that .. not cool .. really not cool when all my other fun long shots looked okay but flunked out .. Duke, Texas State, Miami, AZ think a few others .. I bring that up because while yeah I don't hate the K-State big odds play I'd maybe tamp it down if there's like a quarter/semi final prop with some decent odds like 20x or something .. The big kahuna for 100x maybe worth it if you can get past the first round start hedging but playoff scenarios feel like they'll be heartbreaking for the long shots .. you slay all the dragons and yer still likely 4 GAMES AWAY??!!! .. all are very tough .. and w the big boys getting a bye week knowing who they got next like if you aint top 4 seeds yer toast pretty much shows up burnt .. cool to have 100-1 in that spot but what do we get at that point still have potentially 3 games of hedging to do as likely a decent if not huge dog .. do your best projection / wildest dreams come true for K-ST they secure a 1st round bye get easier first game .. we gettin paid if we're lookin at OSU / UGA final 2 games to hedge or is that end up being a sickening scenario need a 2nd mortgage just to maybe eek out like 5-1 hedge? .. like put a hundo down now to win 10k .. have a dream year and best we get is 500 or 1k maybe .. idk that's what I think happens to most big long shots .. I went another way I took Avery Johnson Heisman 40-1 .. they have a dream ssn I think he's every bit the reason they do it and at least a shot to get to NY as the odds on fav or maybe not a huge dog to bring home the hardware .. Dream season is not easy w K-State's schedule tho .. FCS opener .. roadie to Tulane should be a win this time but revenge game for sure and they'll be all systems go that week .. then Arizona .. technically a noncon game but they gotta show up if they're serious about a playoff bye week... then its the 9 game conference schedule and they got the extra 5th roadie this year .. Farmageddon roadie right at the end right before conf champ game then hopefully get a playoff bye .. eesh .. easy looking conf schedule is still a pretty rough ride final 11 games has 10 conf foes and a trip to Tulane .. |
jesron1269 | 8 |
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Feels like if Dart was THAT DUDE he'd have shown us he was THAT DUDE by now .. doesn't mean the team around won't be better but like 3 games stick out last year Bama UGA and Miss St passing was horrible even Auburn had some big throws but 10 outta 16 think there's a reason he wasn't more involved .. I think losing Judkins is a legit hit guy carried the load and Kiff wants to be 4th n go he needs a go to guy .. Ole Miss w far and away their best model projection in idk how long and they can't get their biggest stud to stay? .. I get Buckeyes clearly a better shot for a natty and im sure they paid him all he wanted but that seems really odd to me and yeah Dart rollin in a jet and best guy leaves, idk whose makin those decisions but you just ain't winning if you don't have next level dudes and they lost a total playmaker almost 300 total rush + rec LY .. and yeah UGA blew em to smithereens they'll be very much in the way of everyone again .. For 14-1 I'd be out .. Gotta see what LSU got .. what a bad deal they have such an epic player w Daniels and defense completely evaporates they were HORRIBLE on that side last year .. pick any LSU D of the last however long maybe 9 outta 10 have a really great shot .. yeah idk nussmeyer is prob a legit QB but he aint that dude .. ya wanna win the championship ya need that dude .. I'd want to know if those LSU receivers are back and what that looks like .. also traditional run game idk if it was anything to hang their hats on .. will play a WAYYYY bigger role w out Daniels rushing for more than the top 3 RB's combined did .. Idk who I'm taking a longer shot on yeah need to know the QB and OC is right to give the team a shot .. Tenn might have a dude but i'd expect if they didn't have LSU fever on D the odds would be wayyy lower than they are .. Jaxon Arnold maybe a dude but maybe a year too soon I like how Venables gutted the team gettin ready for the SEC gettin it done w his much better recruits .. Reilly Leonard is such an ACE GAMER but holy crap ND didn't do much w Hartman .. the WR situation was bad and I doubt they had the right OC there, shame because they coulda been playoff material .. Think Wigman might get unlocked for a big year w Jimbo outta there / new coaches coming in .. Penn State fell off ALL the radars but just terrible WR situation LY really 1 WR and 2 TE's catching passes, terrible OC couldn't even get the run game going totally shut down vs OSU and stifled enough in quite a few others.. but Kansas OC coming in and if they get a couple targets to throw at we'll know real quick if Allar was the problem but idk O could ignite .. idk if this new age CFB world allows for 12 teams w a real shot though if Deboer used all his magic beans last year I think UGA romps and maybe OSU can get in their way if the offensive can get off the steep slip n slide they've been on .. eh those are my thoughts .. congrats on B2B JACK ATTACK BUDDY .. How are they lookin for this year?! |
jesron1269 | 8 |
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HEISMAN TRAVIS HUNTER 75-1 Shop around maybe there's a 100 out there and I think worth taking a shot at least at 75 .. Would be great if he played QB also lol but we have an unbelievably good true 2 way player .. we already have the name recognition and there will be no shortage of spotlight on colorado again this year .. if they don't win the conference can he make it? .. the stats and highlight reels are gunna have to speak for him and well this dude will have every chance to give us 60 mins of highlights every week .. I wouldn't rule out Colorado making another BIG jump in power rating which for them shuffling the deck won't be hard to do .. doesn't really matter they tailed off last year I think coach prime will have whatever the major needs are lined up to play there .. I'd say maybe take Shedeur Sanders but odds are much lower I don't think there's as much value and diff dynamic if CU isin't rollin in the wins his highlights won't mean nearly as much ... assuming Hunter is lighting up sports center from both sides of the ball again then I think there will still be an opening for a dynamic star to at least have a better than average shot to get invited to NY ... also really gotta like Prime's attitude toward making any kinda splash no way he's holding his protege back if they're sniffing hardware mid year .. lotta programs and HC's that is not the case .. like .. UGA for example .. |
Bridge1 | 32 |
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Board filling up early! Big picture on the ACC there doesn't seem to be the sure thing heavy hitters from a year ago .. Clem and FSU could certainly emerge in the elite class or get close enough they handle the conference fairly easy .. after that we have a few teams needing to make a major jump up to lock in a sure thing conf win but I'm not sold there's an elite run away candidate in the group here this year .. I'm also not projecting as tough of a 2nd tier .. last year we had UNC, Ville, Duke, NC State, Miami sitting under the big boys .. Duke and UNC at least appear to be in a down spot maybe VT makes a jump up? .. big picture the mountain doesn't look as massive as last year and the trails seem alot less crowded... just feels like an environment we can take some stabs at the bigger dogs to maybe make a run .. SMU 22-1 .. had my eye on this one already and we just got a few of the online books droppin numbers including Caesars which I find to be generally sharper than others .. had my eye on this pony number already and seein Czr drop a 9-1 out there well I'm grabbing sooner than later .. SMU def has their questions, I'm wondering just how much of that ret pro is returning I thought it would be more than what Bill C says its about average .. nothing extra juicy to report other than this team made a massive leap last year I feel pretty good w the QB situation even if Stone isin't ready to roll .. D has a coordinator I like and man did they make a big turnaround in one year .. def a team that should have options when looking in the portal .. all that said yeah they were G5 a minute ago and were sorta competitive w TCU but clearly not on their level .. played well vs OU but further away .. massive jump in schedule strength and very easily overrated .. I'll take it at 22 and I'm not lookin to go too far below 20 .. 9-1 at CZR's is absurd IMO .. CAL 50-1 .. when we get into the 50's I can start taking a few liberties with the assumptions .. the main one here is these guys turn their whole act around BIG TIME .. I really like the QB they brought in from UNT by way of ULM Chandler Rogers .. every bit a proven dude and the dude we wish Sam Jackson was gunna be .. I trust him and that's kinda all I got for now outside of the ret pro is on the sunny side, especially on offense .. easy to say they can't turn around but in reality they didn't have a decent QB until true FR 3rd stringer came in and actually performed decently well .. the hope is they got a guy that can really play can flip a switch .. no sense bangin this one for massive bucks hundo to win 5k tho and QB I like and in a conf I think could be real hit and miss .. yeah sign me up .. GT ... def on the radar another team I wouldn't mind taking a flyer on .. I wanna see what they do in the spring first shop for the best odds .. their schedule is not easy especially in the home stretch .. but yeah Cal and GT my two favs last year pre-ssn and to everyone's shock they toppled the RSW's and we had some fun along the way .. would be great to get a feel for them and enjoy a bag a popcorn with these ACC long shots! |
Bridge1 | 32 |
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PRE SEASON SSN WINS: CONF: NATTY: HEISMAN: |
Bridge1 | 32 |
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Cont'd .. ^^^ but yeah for fun here's the biggest FAN Duel outtages I come up with, its from maybe a week or two ago .. and consider Im being real basic in my approach as in my prev post above .. OK.ST 9.3 vs 7.5 = 1.8 +100 .. (.)(.) Flip side we have .. Not listed above but one that I like is NU under 5.5 under is like -150 at least .. they added Miami Ohio for the opener and an FCS .. I think they win their FCS game and UTEP but Mia-O looks like MAC KINGS tough this year could def win that one .. they're sporting a heavy ret pro but I could see things fall apart after spring, the home schedule is in total limbo right now and im guessing alot of coaching changes ... maybe keep some of that team unity from LY but they were united by Fitz's firing and it won't be the same this year esp when they made the bowl and won it just I could just see alot of players ride off in the sunset after that kinda season alone and esp anyone in their final year like no real home game this year huh yeah seeya .. would be great to find a 5 and under odds were closer to even .. |
steponaduck | 18 |
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@HilliardBuck Good stuff, yeah I compared to fan duel there's a few of the same names I come up with I haven't dropped BOL in there yet but cursory look seemed about the same as FD .. But surprise to nobody if quite a few are a full G off because the whole name of the game for the books with RSW's is get our money tied up taking bigger risk w the heavier juice, hence they don't put out whole numbers out there (no tie possible) .. so yeah juice really needs to be evaluated half or full game advantage wiped out quick laying too much vig .. .. I also just blindly called FCS games a win 100% prob so obvi that's not living in reality, we have Colorado w NDSU and someone else has SDSU on the docket this year.. that's the kinda thing I table and manually consider .. I saw the SP+ had the special teams in there and not baked in the team number agree w doing that ST is another manual consideration .. if a team really sucks at special teams its gunna cost em in the W column and there's a few ST units we can prob rely on to be good year over year but don't want a model to bake that in .. also converting SP+ lines into real probability im keepin it pretty basic add 2.5 for HFA and took probabilities from some website and layered those in which isin't the right approach to use .. SP+ line calcs are just happenstance if the line crosses a key number whereas historical spread probs would put a premium/discount for doing so .. Then we have the impact of how the schedules are constructed, good and bad spots etc .. We got a good first convo tool that needs alot of sharpening so I wouldn't go barreling into buying the biggest differences SP+ shows us here they aren't deviating from their SP+ calc for no reason .. |
steponaduck | 18 |
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@steponaduck Haaa I checked the logs we can agree you still wouldn't know you won if I didn't say anything the +30000 in game tickets were goin straight in the dumpster .. I asked around and it wouldn't be ungentlemenly of you to send, let's say ... mmm .. half ... my way, would it? .. lol .. Yeah GT just had that ability to hang in all the games .. off the BG loss they just find a way 21.5 pt dogs .. its a buy low team and they could clobber 6 wins sure but just w where the ACC is this year there is maybe an opening for an upstart to pull a shocker and get in the champ game .. GT def in the upstart department .. I had like 250-1 last year or some moonshot number just for kicks .. needed the massive odds last year we had Clem/FSU lookin like sure things but under them a decent 2nd tier .. Ville UNC, Duke, Miami lotta competitors.. knock two of them down at least one level this pre-ssn .. maybe Ville and Miami profile stronger but can say FSU/Clem don't profile nearly as strong, Clem even continued their slide .. GT 55-1 this year .. can I not puke the moment I profile them? .. idk .. but there's def gunna be a surprise ACC team worth considering this year .. GT, Cal, SMU .. Ponies for sure could make a splash, do they have the real chops to make a run idk .. Cal in DUDE we trust .. but trust him at Cal sheesh idk .. Was reallllly hoping Wake could give me any reason to take them for some MASSIVE odds but cursory look I can't even moonshot them not now anyway .. was hoping Griffis scared off into the portal meant they got something better than Kern and HANK "THE WW2 GERMAN PANZER TANK" BACHMEIRER who just keeps on tickin .. but man Clausen and his OC and Lambert at DC they can spin it w the right players and instead get murdered in the portal .. shoulda packed the show up and moved on somewhere w some NIL money a year ago .. and outside the skill guys im lookin at a lone DL at 300lb's on the spring roster and is true FR, I assume he's sitting in A-Gap all year .. basically the '23 UNT story .. eesh .. |
Bridge1 | 32 |
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@JozKnows UNC 8.5 at BOL under is -170 I think 8.5 is just insane, its 7.5 at fan duel for something a little more reasonable but think its still pretty hefty .. the schedule isin't unbeatable and prob start 4-0 .. could anyway .. pretty insane the way they tailed off last year after looking like giants and now here we are with maybe dead last in ret pro .. yeah I'd go under 8.5 if anything idk if I'm interested in laying those odds at least not this early .. Minny idk been quite a slide for them they lost the good players, then lost the OC and unable to get the mojo back .. . woah buddy the models are not likin them and outside the model they lost DC Rossi who we have to trust fully as a DC at this point .. Boat Rowers gunna find better I doubt it .. that said yeah pretty low number .. Not sayin to play this one not posting it even .. but I hit Wisco 80-1 for the B10 .. it doesn't sound great I just think 80 is astronomical for a team that has a chance to make the champ game and at least have some favorability in the schedule .. @USC but PSU, Oregon at home .. also got Bama at home .. just say if they can make the champ game w their schedule I don't think they'll be INSANE dogs .. all that said yeah I'm not liking some of the stuff w assistant coaches leaving and of course number of the good players left .. had a reaaal prob at WR and OL last year .. gunna have ?'s at RB .. need a major turnaround on a few fronts or yeah could get ugly .. I'm not on the RSW i need odds to back these guys .. |
Bridge1 | 32 |
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