Here's some of my research for today's games:
The Orioles are facing a lefty on the road today. Their lineup has really struggled in this spot and it hasn't mattered if the opposing southpaw pitcher was finesse or power. Dating from the most recent match-up: they lost 2-3 in Kansas City (vs Duffy) 2-4 in Boston (vs Pomeranz) 2-5 in Boston (vs Sale). The Orioles are batting .696 on the season vs lefties, compared to .750 vs righties. And now they go up against southpaw Matt Boyd. Boyd is at his best at home. Already this season he has a 2.61 ERA in three home starts, but a 5.30 in four road starts. For instance, he faced a White Sox squad that specializes in hitting lefties. In Chicago he was shelled, giving up five runs in 2.1 innings. But at home, he gave up a respectable three runs in seven innings. Why should he not dominate an Orioles squad that is at its worst against lefties? Check out Orioles 1H TT under.
The Dodgers play in San Francisco again. They continue to struggle in AT&T Park, managing just a .545 ops in five games there. That ballpark is pitcher-friendly and especially unforgiving to left-handed batters (think Pederson, Seager and Utley). Giants' starter Ty Blach has given up just four runs in nineteen innings at home as a starter. His ERA is high because of one bad road start. But like Cain yesterday, we watch out for his home/away splits. Blach's first start was impressive--against the Dodgers he gave up just two runs in five innings (only a 2.82 FIP). As a southpaw finesse pitcher, Blach matches up really well with Dodgers batters, whose ops is just .695 against southpaws compared to .809 against right-handed pitchers, and .759 against finesse pitchers, compared to .823 against power pitchers. Check out the Dodgers 1H TT under
The last time that Stephen Strasburg pitched against the PIrates, he gave up just one run in eight innings. He is capable of consistently pitching well against this line-up because he matches up very well against it. Strasburg is very much a power pitcher, who relies most of all on his blazing fastball that reaches a velocity of 98 mph. He is also a ground ball pitcher, who is inducing ground balls at a 49.2% rate. Against power pitchers, the Pirates are managing just a .631 ops, compared to .776 vs finesse pitchers. Against ground ball pitchers, the Pirates are at their worst, managing just a .612 ops, compared to .706 against fly ball pitchers. The Pirates' offense is anemic: third-to-last in runs scored per game. Can we expect them to find life against a pitcher that 1) matches up very well against them, 2) is one of the best in the game and 3) has upside with a ERA of 3.28, but an FIP of only 2.82? Consider the Pirates 1H TT under
Jimmy Nelson seems to have found his groove. He has given up zero ER in his last 9.2 innings and he still has upside with an FIP of now only 3.83, compared to an ERA of 3.99. The average velocity of Nelson's three main pitches is improving: the average velocity of his slider is up from 86.9 last season to 88.2 mph, his fastball from 92.9 to 94.3, and his sinker from 93.1 to 93.7. This improvement in velocity and in form (Compared with last season, Nelson's strikeout-rate is up, his walk-rate is down, his home run-rate is down, meaning that his stuff and command are better) spells bad news for a Padres lineup whose ops is just .604 against power pitchers compared to .712 against finesse pitchers. Check out the Padres 1H TT under!
I warned you guys about Carrasco yesterday. Let me warn you about two other pitchers who are receiving a lot of hype.
1) Andrew Triggs.
Triggs is having a stellar season, with a 2.77 ERA. But in his last outing against Seattle, he gave up six runs in 4.2 innings. Do I think he will do so badly tonight? No: that was a warm day game. This will be a cool night game, where the ball won't travel as well. But the fact is that he matches up very poorly against the Mariners' lineup. Triggs is a prototypical finesse pitcher, who relies very much on the location and movement on his pitches, and not at all on their velocity. The Mariners are at their best against finesse pitchers, batting an .836 ops against them. The A's 21st ranked bullpen (as measured by ERA) doesn't inspire too much confidence either. Check out the Mariners' TT over!
2) Jake Odorizzi
Odorizzi has been having a very lucky season. His ERA is 2.61--and that's why he's been receiving so much hype-- but his FIP is only 4.66. Sooner or later, one's ERA tends to catch up to one's FIP. Meaning that he is statistically 'due' to tank. Carrasco, for instance, tanked yesterday, even though he matches up so well against Tampa Bay batters. Odorizzi does not even have the advantage of a positive match-up against Cleveland batters. Odorizzi is very much a finesse pitcher who relies on the variety and location of his pitches and not at all on their velocity. The Indians are effective against finesse pitchers, with a .736 ops. The Indians' lineup has been inconsistent. But they're talented. And backing Odorizzi would be like playing with fire. Tampa Bay's bullpen, however, doesn't inspire too much confidence either, with its 18th ranked bullpen, as measured by ERA. Check out the Indians' TT over!
Also watch out for:
1) Jason Hammel
Hammel has an fip of over 4 in each of his last four games. His opponent ground ball rate is down about 8% from last year and his walk-rate is way up, which means that he is having a lot of trouble locating his pitches. And yet he is absolutely a finesse pitcher who relies on the location of his pitches and not at all on their velocity. He is facing a lineup today that has really been eating up finesse pitchers, producing a .904 ops against them, compared to .679 against power pitchers. The Royals' 22nd ranked bullpen (as measured by ERA) doesn't inspire too much confidence either. Check out the Yankees TT over!
2) CC Sabathia
The Royals struggle against lefties, but so did Pittsburgh and Baltimore, and they (even without Marte for PIttsburgh) smashed Sabathia. The exit velocity on Sabathia's pitches is very high, meaning that opposing batters are hitting him very hard. He has given up four runs or more in his last four games. I posted about him last week. We ride his slump. Check out the Royals' 1H TT over!