It’s a bad dream, like that reoccurring one about the big test you forgot to study for.
But as you pinch your arm and do a double-take at the clock, you realize you left out one huge, giant, Vince Wilfork-sized thing while planning your perfect Super Bowl Sunday.
You forgot to bet!
Somewhere in between making your special five-alarm chilli and arranging to have your phone disconnected between kickoff and the final whistle, you totally spaced on getting your action down on the biggest betting day of the year.
Take a breath. Now take another.
Covers.com comes to the rescue like a David Tyree helmet catch with our best last-minute bets for Super Bowl XLVI.
First score of the game – Giants field goal (+350)
With the Pats’ tendency to defer receiving to the second half and the Giants’ tendency to receive the opening kick, there’s a good chance that New York will have the first crack with the football.
Like two prize fighters, these teams will feel each other out in the opening quarter. New England has a bend-but-don’t-break defense and with New York not showing its hand, expect the G-Men to strike first with a field goal. It’s how they got things started versus the Patriots in Super Bowl XLII.
Total sacks by both teams – Over 3.5 (-130)
With the number of times the Pats and Giants will drop back, taking the over just seems like solid math.
New York has nine sacks this postseason and was tied for third in the league with 48 QB kills in the regular season. New England has eight sacks in just two playoff games and knows it must get Eli moving if it is going to stop the downfield attack.
Will the team that scores first win the Super Bowl? – Yes (-170)
This seems like a high price for a simple prop bet. But c’mon, you’re doing this at the last minute. Looking back over the history of the Big Game, the team that has scored first has gone 29-16. That includes the Packers last year.
If you’re thinking about taking our “First score of the game” prop above, you may want to throw down some coin on the G-Men +3.
Player to record reception first: Welker (-110)/ Gronkowski (-120)
There is still a big question mark when it comes to Rob Gronkowski’s bum ankle, so we’ll gladly look to Brady’s former go-to guy Wes Welker with the reduced juice.
Welker has been very quiet in the playoffs, but was a beast versus the Giants in the regular season, catching 12 balls for 138 yards. With New York focused on New England’s dynamic tight end, Welker should have space to operate.
Super Bowl MVP – Stephen Gostkowski +10,000
With a spread this close, the Vegas oddsmakers expect this one to come down to the wire.
The Patriots have a history of winning big games on the foot of their kicker and Gostkowski is paying off like a Kris Humphries tell-all book. However, in the history of the Super Bowl MVP, it’s never gone to a kicker.
Other value MVP bets include Pats WR Deion Branch (+6,600), who won the honor in Super Bowl XXXIX, and Giants’ bulldozing running back Brandon Jacobs (+7,500), who could easily rush for two TDs on two total yards if New York gets to the goal line a few times.