Where the action is: Books "made a big mistake" with MNF line

Oct 28, 2013 |
The NFC West is featured in the Week 8 finale, with the shorthanded St. Louis Rams hosting the Seattle Seahawks on Monday Night Football. We talk to Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker with CarbonSports.ag, about the action coming in on this game and where the odds could end up by kickoff:

Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams – Open: +10.5, Move: +14

The Rams were going to be sizable home underdogs to the Seahawks before QB Sam Bradford was lost for the season. But without their top offensive weapons, bettors piled on the road team and have pushed this spread as many as 3.5 points.

Books admit that they underestimated just how much this line would swing and have themselves in a tough spot, rooting for a punchless St. Louis side to bail them out after a terrible Week 8 in which favorites are already 8-4 ATS.

Stewart notes that all three of Sunday’s double-digit favorites went 3-0 ATS and also played Over the total, capped off by Green Bay’s win over Minnesota in the Sunday night game. With that in mind, CarbonSports.ag, pushed the line past -13.5 and “can't stop the bleeding nor the Seahawks support” with the spread at the key number of Seattle -14.
 
“We won't be going any higher than that because we just can't risk getting middled,” Stewart tells Covers. “We're already opening ourselves up by going to 14, but at this point we had to because the liability is just that severe. Bottom line: We made a big mistake with our opening number as this game should have been opened Seahawks -13. Regardless, every bookmaker in the world is rooting for the Rams tonight.”

As for Monday’s total, the number opened at 42 and has been moved to 43.5 with action on the Over. The public loves to play the Over in standalone games and is banking on Week 8’s 8-4 O/U record heading into Monday’s finale.
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