MLB Daily Line Drive: Thursday's Picks, Betting Odds and Analysis

Apr 20, 2017 |
In three starts Ervin Santana has thrown 22 innings to the tune of a 0.41 ERA and a 0.45 WHIP, while holding opponents to a futile .133 OBP.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports
In three starts Ervin Santana has thrown 22 innings to the tune of a 0.41 ERA and a 0.45 WHIP, while holding opponents to a futile .133 OBP.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The baseball schedule can be tough to navigate for even a seasoned bettor. We break down all the day's MLB betting angles for you including picks, trends, weather and analysis to help you handicap the big leagues like a pro.

Double-Play Picks

Cleveland Indians at Minnesota Twins (+126, 8)

The Indians have had the Twins number of late, winning eight of the last nine meetings with their division rival, including the first two games of this series, outscoring Minnesota 14-5. However, Minnesota sends red-hot starter Ervin Santana to the mound for the finale of this rain shortened series.

Santana has been one of the best pitchers in baseball at this point in the young season. In three starts the 34-year-old right-hander has thrown 22 innings to the tune of a 0.41 ERA and a 0.45 WHIP, while holding opponents to a futile .133 OBP.

He also seems to be getting stronger with each outing and is coming off a complete game one-hit shutout of the White Sox, in which he racked up eight strikeouts and just one walk.

While the Twins aren’t world beaters on offense by any means, they have been opportunistic and they should have plenty of opportunity against Cleveland starter Trevor Bauer. Bauer is making his third start of the season and is 0-2 with a 8.44 ERA and is coming off a five-inning outing against the Tigers in which he gave up six runs on eight hits.

Pick: Twins +126

St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers (105, 8)


The Cardinals haven’t enjoyed playing baseball away from Busch Stadium this season, going just 1-5 on the road this year. Luckily, they play a Brewers team that been almost as bad at home and send a pitcher to the mound who has dominated this matchup.

The Cardinals are 6-1 in Carlos Martinez’s last seven starts against the Brewers, including 5-0 on the road.

The 25-year old right-hander has pitched to a ridiculously good 0.98 ERA with 50 strikeouts to 12 walks in those starts and the one loss can’t really be attributed to Martinez who only threw seven pitches before coming out of the game with shoulder soreness.

Additionally, while the St. Louis lineup has been struggling, they have received some timely hitting and get to face a struggling Zack Davies, who is 0-2 with an 8.79 ERA and eight walks to go along with just 11 strikeouts in three starts.

Pick: Cardinals -130

Yesterday's Picks: 1-1
Season to Date: 6-6

For more FREE MLB picks and analysis check out our Free Picks page on Covers Experts.



Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

Streaking: James Paxton, Seattle Mariners (2-0, 0.00 ERA, $100)

You can argue that no one has had a better start to the season than the Mariner’s James Paxton. The lefty looks more and more like Seattle’s ace (sorry King Felix, time to pass the crown) with each passing start.

In three starts, Paxton is 2-0, with an ERA that still sits a triple zero. Yes, he has yet to allow an earned run in 22 innings pitched. He has done this because he has done an excellent job of keeping runners off the bases, with a 0.54 WHIP and an opponents’ OBP of .160. He also has 22 strikeouts to just four walks this season. The Mariners are -149 road chalk at the A’s.

Slumping: Zach Davies, Milwaukee Brewers (0-2, 8.79 ERA, -$304)

Zach Davies (from Puyallup, Washington) is off to a horrible start to the 2017 baseball season. The young righty has made three awful starts thus far and the Brewers have lost all three, including two starts at home.

In 14.1 innings pitched this season Davies is sporting a very untidy 8.79 ERA, a 2.023 WHIP, and a very alarming opponent's on base percentage of .408. Yikes! He can't keep guys from getting on base and once they get on base they usually score.

The Brewers are +100 home dogs today with the rival Red Birds coming to town.

Monday’s Top Trends

* The Houston Astros are 7-1 in their last 8 games vs. right-handed starters. -160 today vs. Matt Shoemaker and the Los Angeles Angels.
* Under is 19-4-4 in the last 27 meetings between the Kansas City Royals and Texas Rangers. Total today set at 9.
* The Arizona Diamondbacks are 0-6 in Patrick Corbin's last 6 road starts. D-Backs -115 @ San Diego today.
* The Seattle Mariners are 8-1 in their last 9 road games vs. teams with a losing home record. M's -150 tonight @ Oakland.

Weather to Keep an Eye On

Conditions are expected to be blustery in Cincinnati where the Reds will welcome the Baltimore Orioles for an interleague matchup. There is a 60 percent chance of a thunderstorm developing late in the evening and a 10-15 MPH wind is expected to blow OUT TO LEFT throughout the game.

The total for this evening's game is currently set at 9 with Wade Miley and Scott Feldman on the bump.

Ump of the Day

Mike Estabrook: Estabrook will be behind the dish for this evening's game between the Baltimore Orioles and the Cincinnati Reds at the great American Ball Park and, based on recent history, this seems like good news for the O's. The Orioles have won their last seven games with Estabrook calling balls and strikes. Meanwhile, the Reds are only 1-5 in their last six with Mr. Estabrook wearing the pads. The Orioles are slight -120 favorites today.

Thursday's Top Consensus

Here are today's top MLB side and total plays according to our Covers Consensus.


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