Exposing the Top 25: Where the polls went wrong

Dec 3, 2013 |
The Bearcats have won 16 of their last 18 home games.
Photo By - USA Today Sports
The Bearcats have won 16 of their last 18 home games.
Photo By - USA Today Sports
Each week throughout the college football season, Covers Expert Jesse Schule will dissect the new Top 25 rankings, looking for betting value. He'll showcase the most overrated team, along with the most underrated ranked team, and an unranked squad that he feels should be in the Top 25.

Most underrated Top 25 team: Michigan State Spartans (11-1 SU, 7-4 ATS)

The Spartans finished the season with eight straight victories after suffering their only loss to Notre Dame on the road back on September 21. Of those eight victories, many came against quality opponents, and none of those games were close (all decided by double digits). 

Michigan State boasts the nation's No. 4 ranked defense, allowing an average of just 11.8 points per game. The Spartans registered a shutout against Purdue, held Minnesota and Illinois to just three points each, and held Northwestern and Michigan to just six points apiece.

Most overrated Top 25 team: Ohio State Buckeyes (12-0 SU, 6-5-1 ATS)

I believe it truly would be a crime if the Buckeyes were to play in the National Championship game ahead of Missouri or Auburn, who will play for the SEC Championship Saturday.

Ohio State has a perfect 12-0 record, much like Notre Dame did last year. And look what happened to the Irish when they faced an SEC powerhouse - it looked like men against boys. I'm convinced it would be the same story if the Buckeyes were to play any of the Top 5 teams.

Saturday's win over the Wolverines showed how vulnerable the Buckeyes defense can be, and that was against an unranked opponent. The Buckeyes were very fortunate to have escaped with the win at Ann Arbor in a game that ended with a failed two-point conversion on the final play.

Unranked team that should be ranked: Cincinnati Bearcats (9-2 SU, 6-5-0 ATS)

The Bearcats have won six straight and they boast a Top-10 defense, allowing opponents an average of 18.5 points per game. They finish the season against Louisville at home and they have won 16 of their last 18 home games.

Quarterback Brendon Kay has thrown for over 800 yards and six touchdowns, winning back-to-back games on the road.
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