Exposing the Top 25: Where the polls went wrong

Jan 2, 2013 |
The Hoyas' offense has burned backers in all but two games this season.
Photo By - USA Today Sports
The Hoyas' offense has burned backers in all but two games this season.
Photo By - USA Today Sports
Each week throughout the college basketball season, Covers Expert Jesse Schule will dissect the new Top 25 rankings, looking for betting value. He'll showcase the most overrated team, along with the most underrated ranked team, and an unranked squad that he feels should be in the Top 25.

Most Underrated Top 25 Team - Creighton Bluejays (12-1 SU, 9-2 ATS)

After covering the spread in all but two of their first 13 games, it’s safe to say the Bluejays are underrated. Creighton went undefeated in the month of December for just the third time in school history. It’s the second best 3-point shooting team in the nation, hitting 42 percent from beyond the arc, and they also rank in the Top 10 in field goal percentage, shooting 50.8 percent.

The Bluejays have taken advantage of a relatively easy schedule and have not yet faced a ranked opponent. It won't be getting tougher anytime soon, with their next five games coming against lesser opponents. They likely won't be tested until they face Wichita State on Jan. 19.

Most Overrated Top 25 Team - Georgetown Hoyas (10-1 SU, 2-5 ATS)

The Hoyas have only one loss this season and that came at the hands of the Indiana Hoosiers, who were ranked first in the nation at the time. Despite their record, they have really struggled offensively, averaging only 66 points per game. Their futility on the offensive side of the ball has kept the Hoyas from covering the spread in all but two of their games so far this year.

Georgetown faces a difficult schedule with two tough games coming up in the next seven days. It will take on Marquette in Milwaukee Saturday and then is back at home taking on the Pittsburgh Panthers just three days later.

Unranked Team That Should Be Ranked - North Carolina Tar Heels (10-3, 7-4 ATS)

A few weeks ago, I was saying that the Tar Heels were the most overrated team in the Top 25 and, as it turns out, it appears that I was right. They have since been dropped from the rankings after losing on the road in Texas. North Carolina has since put together back-to-back impressive wins, including 79-73 victory over No. 25 UNLV.

North Carolina still ranks in the Top 5 in the nation in scoring, averaging 83.6 points per game. With their next five games coming up against unranked opponents, don't be surprised to see the Tar Heels back in the rankings next week. They have a tough road game coming up at the end of the month, playing the North Carolina State Wolfpack in Chapel Hill on Jan. 26.
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