Exposing the Top 25: Where the polls went wrong

Dec 10, 2013 |
The Falcons beat NIU for the MAC title, but still sit outside the Top 25, while NIU is No. 24.
Photo By - USA Today Sports
The Falcons beat NIU for the MAC title, but still sit outside the Top 25, while NIU is No. 24.
Photo By - USA Today Sports
Each week throughout the college football season, Covers Expert Jesse Schule will dissect the new Top 25 rankings, looking for betting value. He'll showcase the most overrated team, along with the most underrated ranked team, and an unranked squad that he feels should be in the Top 25.

Most Underrated Top 25 Team - Wisconsin Badgers (9-3 SU, 9-2-1 ATS)

The Badgers finished the season 9-3, but let's not forget that officials likely cost them a victory in Arizona back in Week 3. Wisconsin was in position to kick a chip shot field goal to win the game in the final seconds, but the referees failed to spot the ball and allowed time to expire, resulting in a 32-30 victory for the Sun Devils.

The Badgers have been kind to bettors this year, covering the points at a rate of 9-2-1. They own the nation's 6th ranked defense, allowing an average of 14.8 points per game. Strong defense and a power running game has long been a recipe for success, and few teams do it better than Wisconsin.

Most Overrated Top 25 Team - Arizona State Sun Devils (10-3 SU, 7-6 ATS)

It took a gift win at home over the Badgers in Week 3 for the Sun Devils to finish with a 10-3 record. They found themselves over-matched at home against Stanford, losing by 24 points.

Quarterback Taylor Kelly had a great start to the season, but faded down the stretch, throwing just four touchdown passes and three interceptions in his last four games. They will face the Texas Tech Red Raiders in the Holiday Bowl on December 30th.

Unranked Team That Should Be Ranked - Bowling Green Falcons (10-3 SU, 10-3 ATS)

The Falcons are the MAC champions after blowing out Northern Illinois in the conference championship game. Despite their decisive victory over the Huskies, it's NIU that finds itself ranked, with Bowling Green on the outside looking in.

The Falcons won their last five games of the season, and finished with a Top 5 defense, allowing fewer than 15 points per game. The Falcons will be a favorite against Pittsburgh in the Little Caesars Bowl on boxing day.
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