Odds for Week 6 of the NFL season have been up since the weekend and books have already made some major adjustments to the lines as of Wednesday. We talk to sportsbooks and oddsmakers about the biggest mid-week line moves:
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs – Open: -10, Move: -8.5
Apparently, the early money isn’t sold on the Chiefs' perfect record and expects a stumble when the Raiders come to Arrowhead. This line has dropped from the key number of 10, but should go back up when the public comes in on the undefeated home favorite Sunday.
“Yeah, Oakland looked good and that's what's driving the early money. But we really like the Chiefs side here,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, says. “That Chiefs money is looming and you should expect to get it while you're at this low level early in the week.”
Green Bay Packers at Baltimore Ravens – Open: +1, Move: +3, Move: +2
Early money moved this spread up to a field goal, however, injuries to the Packers' linebacker corps have trimmed a point off that line. Standout LB Clay Matthews is out for at least a month with a broken thumb.
“The problems for Green Bay are those injuries and that Baltimore is getting healthy at the right time in a weak division,” Aron Black of Bet365.com told Covers. “A big game for both teams, with action steady on Baltimore with the early lines but coming back on Green Bay at -2. Baltimore action is about 2.5/1 to Green Bay on the spread.”
Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets – Open: +3, Move: -3
Before the Jets shocked the Falcons on Monday Night Football, New York was a field-goal underdog at home in Week 6. However, that impressive performance has swayed early action, moving this line as many as six points at some markets.
“There will be many kicking themselves for not taking New york before the move,” says Black. “We are pretty light on Jets action, but are seeing Pittsburgh action as a small dog. A definite ‘who knows what will happen?’ game.”
Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos – Open: -28, Move: -26.5
The early money isn’t quick to give the most points in NFL history and has moved this historic spread down 1.5 points and under four touchdowns. According to Black, action on Denver is outnumbering Jacksonville at a 2/1 pace and he could see this line coming back up to 27.5 or a light -28 by kickoff Sunday afternoon.
“If anyone likes the Jags to do anything decent in this game, stay away from the spread and find the lowest Jaguars team total you can and go over,” says Black. “One thing that Denver has proved so far is, if not for such a dominant pass game they would be getting tore up by pundits for the lack of defense. If Denver scores the expected six or so TDs, then Jacksonville will at least get many opportunities to score themselves.”
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys – Open: -4, Move: -6
Even though the Cowboys lost to Denver last weekend, the betting market was more than impressed with Dallas’ effort – enough to tack two points on the opening spread for this NFC East rivalry. That may be giving Big D too much credit against a desperate Redskins squad.
“Dallas' showing versus Denver was impressive but we have a sneaking suspicion of a letdown here,” says Korner. “Washington needs a boost themselves and this is the venue to turn things around.”