Like your sister’s friend with the tramp stamp, the Miami Marlins are a hot mess.
The Marlins are not only flirting with one of their worst starts in franchise history, going 5-16 heading into Thursday’s series opener with the Chicago Cubs, but Miami is on pace to become one of the worst MLB bets to open the season in the past 14 years.
Heading into Thursday, Miami has burned bettors for -8.02 units (a $100 bettor would be down $802) and sits dead last in the MLB money rankings. The Marlins’ futility has them on pace to top the 2002 Chicago Cubs, who cost their faithful -13.90 units with a 8-16 record in April.
According to online sportbook CarbonSports.ag, between 15 and 25 percent of the action on Miami games is actually on the Marlins this season. Their poor play is already dictating massive moneylines, being priced as high as +241 versus the Cincinnati Reds last Friday (a game they won 2-1).
Miami has six games remaining this month – four vs. Chicago and two vs. the N.Y. Mets – and could be a moneyline underdog in each of those contests. The Marlins need to lose -5.88 units in that span to match the 2002 Cubs’ stinky start. Depending on pitching matchups and prices, they have a good shot at exceeding that in the next week if things continue to go south in South Beach.
Miami hasn’t shown many signs of improvement, splitting a doubleheader against the Minnesota Twins Tuesday. The Marlins are last in runs (2.57 per game), batting average (.221), OPS (.574) and home runs (6) in the majors and the pitching staff boasts a collective 4.50 ERA – 27th in the bigs. Their minus-44 run differential ranks among the worst starts since 1975, according to Hardball Talk.
However, the Fish are not alone. The Toronto Blue Jays (-7.71 units) and San Diego Padres (-7.27) are also in the hunt for the worst April wager.
Chicago, which comes to Miami for a four-game set this week, has been one of the most costly wagers in April over the last 14 seasons, burning -40.51 units (174-185) and finishing in the black in just four of those April schedules. The only other team that’s done more damage to bankrolls in the opening month is the Houston Astros, who have lost -59.89 units (161-201) in April since 1999.
Here are the 10 most costly baseball bets in April since 1999:
2002 Chicago Cubs (8-16) -13.90 units
2012 Los Angeles Angels (10-17) -13.60 units
2005 New York Yankees (10-14) -13.60 units
1999 Baltimore Orioles (6-16) -13.20 units
2004 Montreal Expos (5-19) -12.85 units
2001 Oakland Athletics (8-17) -12.60 units
2007 New York Yankees (9-14) -12.35 units
2003 Detroit Tigers (3-20) -12.20 units
2006 Pittsburgh Pirates (7-20) -12.19 units
2010 Los Angeles Dodgers (9-17) -11.97 units