Adam Martin writes for MMAOddsbreaker.com. Follow him on Twitter @MMAdamMartin.
Here are five UFC 166 main card prop bets to take a look at Saturday night:
Cain Velasquez vs. Junior dos Santos
Junior dos Santos wins inside the distance (+240)
I know most people are on Cain Velasquez in the main event of UFC 166, but I’m on the other side. I’m picking Junior dos Santos to get the upset win and take back the UFC heavyweight title he lost last year.
If dos Santos wins this fight, it’s going to be via finish. So at +240, I think the prop on dos Santos winning inside the distance presents good value.
Daniel Cormier vs. Roy Nelson
Daniel Cormier/Roy Nelson OVER 1.5 rounds (-280)
The heavyweight fight between Daniel Cormier and Roy Nelson is going to be a slugfest, but it’s most likely going to be a one-sided slugfest with Cormier beating the pulp out of Nelson for five rounds.
The total has been set at only 1.5 rounds and at -280 - a steal in my opinion - I think this prop is most certainly worth parlaying.
Gilbert Melendez vs. Diego Sanchez
Gilbert Melendez/Diego Sanchez goes three-round distance (-210)
Gilbert Melendez vs. Diego Sanchez really should be a cakewalk for Melendez, but with the state of MMA judging, you just never know.
Instead of betting on Melendez, consider a play on the fight going the distance, which is currently only -210. I have this prop capped at -500, so there’s exceptional value in this spot and it’s worth putting into a two-team parlay.
Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Shawn Jordan
Shawn Jordan/Gabriel Gonzaga does not go the distance (-300)
The heavyweight fight between Shawn Jordan and Gabriel Gonzaga features two of the most powerful finishers in the entire division going toe-to-toe. In a matchup between two guys who can turn each other’s lights out with one shot, I’m not banking on either side.
Instead, I like a bet on the fight doesn’t go the distance, which is currently -300. I have this prop capped at -600 for this bout, so I believe there is extreme value in this line and think it’s great parlay fodder.
John Dodson vs. Darrell Montague
John Dodson/Darrell Montague UNDER 2.5 rounds (+145)
And finally, the PPV card opens with a bang as flyweights John Dodson and Darrell Montague will go to war for three rounds or less.
These guys are both finishers and I don’t see this fight going the distance. The total on the fight going UNDER 2.5 rounds, which currently pays +145, is probably the best bet for this entire fight.
Check out MMAOddsbreaker.com for more betting info on UFC 166 and find the latest MMA odds here.