MLB Daily Line Drive: Wednesday's picks, betting odds and analysis

Sep 13, 2017 |

There are 15 games on the MLB schedule today, including "Mad Max" and the Nationals looking to rebound after getting thumped by the Braves last night. Get analysis on all of today's games as well as tips on weather, umpires, and other betting trends with our daily MLB Line Drive.

Double-Play Picks

Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals (-300, 8)

The Braves and Nationals meet in D.C. on Wednesday night for the middle game of their three-game series. The Braves rode a brilliant pitching performance by Julio Teheran to a convincing 8-0 victory in the opener and the Nats will be looking for some payback tonight.

While everyone is talking about big winnings streaks and big losing streaks from the other top teams in baseball, nobody is talking about the Washington Nationals. It's the quiet ones you always have to worry about.

The Nats will send their bulldog Max Scherzer to the mound tonight. Their team win/loss in his last 18 starts is 14-4, and they have covered the -1.5 runline in 9 of those 14 victories. The Nationals are also 7-1 in Scherzer's last eight starts against the Braves and have covered -1.5 in five of those seven wins.

There is no more competitive pitcher in the game than Max Scherzer - he hates to lose and he very rarely has back-to-back rough outings. He allowed four earned runs in his last start, against the Phillies. That is only the fourth time this season that "Mad Max" has allowed more than three runs in a start - the previous three times he has rebounded to the tune of a 0.95 ERA and a WHIP of only 0.895, with the Nats covering the runline on all three occasions.

Braves' "gentle giant" Luiz Gohara will get his second major league start on the other side. It's a tough assignment as the Nats are among the top teams in almost every offensive stat category versus left-handed pitching this season, and Gohara was banged around in his first big league outing for six run in four innings of work against the Rangers.

Pick: Nationals -1.5 (-145)

Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays (-125, 8.5)

After advancing to the ALCS the past two years, the Blue Jays have been reduced to the roll of spoiler this season and that’s exactly what they’re doing to the Orioles as the Jays look to sweep away Baltimore in Toronto on Wednesday night.

The Blue Jays have embraced their spoiler role, rattling off four straight wins, including the first two games of their series with the O’s, who have dropped six straight games and now sit 4.5 game behind the Twins for the second wildcard spot in the AL.

If there is one guy who might believe the Jays still have a shot at the postseason, it’s Marcus Stroman, who makes the start against the Orioles on Wednesday. The electric right-hander has been a bright spot for Toronto, going 11-7 with a 3.18 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP in 2017. His numbers at home are even more impressive. Despite the 5-5 record, he owns a 2.76 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP in 15 starts at Rogers Centre.

The Orioles counter with Kevin Gausman. The right-hander has been the epitome of the O’s rotation this season – inconsistent. Look at his last four starts, he has two performances in which he allowed no earned runs in 13.2 innings sandwiched by two starts where he allowed five runs in each and couldn’t get out of the fourth inning.

While one of those good starts was against the Blue Jays, they present good value here. And while it may be too little too late, they are a team that is fun to watch again.

Pick: Blue Jays -125

Yesterday's Picks: 1-1
Season To Date: 140-133-14


For more FREE picks and analysis head over to our Free Picks page on Covers Experts.



Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

Streaking: Mike Clevinger, Cleveland Indians (9-5, 3.30 ERA, $238)

Just like the team he pitches for, Indians' Mike Clevinger is on a streak - although his is a shutout streak.

Clevinger has spun three shutout performances in a row, spanning 18 innings of work. During those three clean performances by Clevinger the Indians are 3-0 and he owns an ERA of 0.00 (of course) and a WHIP of 0.889.

The Indians are big -275 home favorites this afternoon against Buck Farmer and the Tigers as the Tribe look to tie the major league record for most consecutive wins with 21.

Slumping: Tyler Glasnow, Pittsburgh Pirates (2-6, 7.45 ERA, $-79)

Tyler Glasnow makes his triumphant return to the Pirates' starting rotation after some time away in the minors. Glasnow had a rough go of it at the major league level during the first half on the season, going just 2-6 with an ERA of 7.45 in 12 starts.

In his last three starts he was 0-3 with an ERA of 9.64 and a WHIP of 1.86. Hopefully, for himself and Pirates backers, he worked out the kinks during his time riding the bus.

Glasnow and the Pirates are +150 underdogs this evening in Milwaukee against Chase Anderson and the Brewers.



Wednesday's Top Trends

* The Cleveland Indians have won their last 20 games overall. -275 today vs. Tigers.
* The Texas Rangers are 7-0 in Martin Perez's last seven starts. -105 today vs. Mariners.
* The New York Mets are 1-11 in their last 12 games vs. a left-handed starter. +245 today at Cubs (Lester).
* The Los Angeles Dodgers have lost their last 15 games started by someone other than Clayton Kershaw. -220 today (Darvish) at Giants.

Weather To Keep An Eye On

There should be no precipitation impacting any action on the field today across Major League Baseball.

There will be a 10-13 mile per hour wind blowing out to left-center field tonight at AT&T Park in San Francisco where the Giants will take on the Dodgers. The total is set at 7.5.

Wrigley Field in Chicago will have barely a whisper of wind today at 3-5 miles per hour blowing from right-to-left. The total for Harvey vs. Lester is set at 8.5.

Ump Of The Day

Dan Bellino is the top Under umpire in Major League Baseball and he will be behind the plate for tonight's game in Washington, D.C. between the Nationals and the visiting Braves.

Under is 16-6-4 (72.7 percent) in Bellino's 22 games calling balls and strikes this season and the total for tonight's game has dropped from the opening number of 8.5, down to 8.

Wednesday's Top Consensus

Here are the top side and total plays according to our Covers Consensus.



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