The betting public tends to gravitate toward the favorite and the over in the big games, and there is no game bigger than Super Bowl XLVII.
With kickoff just over 24 hours away, that one-sided wave of action on the San Francisco 49ers has pushed most sportsbook to move the spread for Sunday’s Big Game to Niners -4. If this trend continues, the spread could get close to its original number when the odds were released on Jan. 20.
“We were even for the first week and a half but the last few days the San Francisco money started to take over,” Jay Kornegay, sportsbook director at the LVH Superbook in Las Vegas, told Covers. “We were at -3.5 for about 10 days but went to -4 late (Friday) morning. I expect it to close at -4.5 at most places with a few at -4.”
Online books are seeing similar betting patterns, with money leaning toward the favorite. However, while they do think the spread has a chance at -4.5, they expect sharp money to buy back the Ravens at the inflated spread.
“Definitely seems to be headed that way,” Dave Mason of BetOnline.ag told Covers. “Just took a couple sharp bets on San Francisco moneyline. They are now up to -180. My guess it will close four, with a good shot at 4.5. Would be surprised if it closes 3.5.”
As for action on the total, the tourists pouring into Sin City will likely be attaching the over to their San Francisco bets with some books expecting the number to climb as high as 49 before bettors come back on the under.
“After the first wave of under money it’s been nothing but over,” says Kornegay. “We expect that to continue and we’ll close the total at 48.5.”
Check out the latest Super Bowl XLVII line moves with our NFL Live Odds page.