MLB Daily Line Drive: Monday's picks, betting odds and analysis

Sep 11, 2017 |

There are 8 games on the MLB schedule today, including the Bronx Bombers taking on their division rivals from Tampa Ray in the wake of Hurricane Irma. Get analysis on all of today's games as well as tips on weather, umpires, and other betting trends with our daily MLB Line Drive.

Double-Play Picks

New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays (+125, 8.5)

The Yankees and Rays have been relocated to Citi Field in Queens due to Hurricane Irma in Florida. This is a very weird situation for both teams as these will be home games for the Rays, however the crowd in attendance will be mostly Yankees' fans - perhaps not too weird considering the usual crowds at Tropicana Field.

CC Sabathia will get the ball for the Yankees in Game 1. Sabathia has been very good all season, but especially good on the road (7-3, 3.25 ERA). Since this may not have the true feel of a road game we'll just mention the fact that the Yankees have won his last eight starts against the Rays over the last three seasons, including 3-0 in 2017.

Jake Odorizzi has looked better recently (against three light-hitting clubs) but overall his season has been rough with a team win/loss of 10-14 and an ERA of 4.58. He's also been worse in games that are technically home games with a team win/loss of 4-9 and an ERA of 4.71.

We riding the hot hands in this one. The Yankees have won seven of the last 10 meetings with the Rays and two of the streakiest hitters in all of baseball (Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez) both had multi-homer games yesterday in New York's 16-7 victory over the Texas Rangers.

Pick: Yankees -135

Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers (-135, 10.5)

The Mariners and Rangers open a four-game series at Globe Life Park in Arlington, Texas on Monday night.

This pick will strictly be related to the starting pitchers and their situational performance thus far in 2017.

Ariel Miranda gets the away start for the Mariners and he comes into Monday's games with an ERA of 6.16 on the road this season. Tonight will also be his second career start at Globe Life Park - earlier this season he allowed five runs in 5.2 innings of work against the Rangers in an eventual 5-1 loss.

Veteran lefty Cole Hamels gets the ball for the Rangers and he has been dynamite at home all season with a win/loss record of 6-0 (team win/loss of 7-2), an ERA of 3.39, and a WHIP of 1.13 in nine starts. He's been roughed up a bit recently, but three of his last four starts have been on the road and he'll be happy to be back on the bump in Arlington.

Both clubs have visions of catching the Twins for the second wildcard spot in the American League, and the Rangers will get the jump on turning those visions into reality this evening.

Pick: Rangers -135

Yesterday's Picks: 0-2
Season To Date: 137-132-14


For more FREE picks and analysis head over to our Free Picks page on Covers Experts.


Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

Streaking: Carlos Carrasco, Cleveland Indians (14-6, 3.53 ERA, $662)

The Indians are on fire, having won 18 in a row, including sweeps over the Royals, Yankees, Tigers, White Sox, and Orioles. And while ‘Klubot’ is the ace of the staff, Carlos Carrasco has been dominating during this streak.

In Carrasco’s last three starts (all Indians wins), he has thrown 23 innings and allowed two earned runs (0.78 ERA) and 0.65 WHIP. If there is one point in the righty’s game that’s been on point, it would be his control. During this stretch, he has 25 total strike outs and hasn’t given up a free pass.

Carrasco and the Indians are -322 favorites at home today in Game 1 of a series with the Tigers.

Slumping: Ubaldo Jimenez, Baltimore Orioles (5-9, 6.80 ERA, $53)

For a few weeks there it really looked Ubaldo Jimenez had turned his season around, there was a stretch of four starts that he was dealing with 24 innings and only seven runs allowed (2.63 ERA). Now things are as bad ever at the worst possible time, with the Orioles 3-games back of a wildcard spot with 19 games remaining.

In his last three starts, Jimenez is 0-2 with an ERA of 12.75, WHIP of 2.17, and opponents batting average of .438.

Jimenez and the Orioles are in Toronto tonight and are available at +104.


Monday's Top Trends

* Indians are 10-1 in Carlos Carrasco’s last 11 starts vs. Tigers. -322 vs Tigers.

* Rays are 1-11 in Jake Odorizzi’s last 12 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. +126 vs. Yankees.

* Mariners are 10-1 in Ariel Miranda’s last 11 starts during game 1 of a series. +120 @ Rangers.

* Diamondbacks are 9-0 in their last 9 vs. a team with a winning record. -188 vs Rockies.


Weather To Keep An Eye On

Lots of clouds in the forecast for today but nowhere is rain expected to affect any ballparks on the schedule. 

The most notable wind today will be at Progressive Field in Cleveland where the forecast is calling for 13-10 mile per hour winds at first pitch blowing in from right field. The Tigers are in town to play the Indians and the total for this contest is 8.5.

Winds will also be breezy in San Francisco where the Giants host the Los Angeles Dodgers. The lineups will be treated to a 9-12 mile per hour wind at during the game. The total for tonight’s game is set at 8.


Monday's Top Consensus

Here are the top side and total plays according to our Covers Consensus.




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