Exposing the Top 25: Where the polls went wrong

Jan 23, 2013 |
The Miami Hurricanes have been a great bet this season.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports
The Miami Hurricanes have been a great bet this season.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports
Each week throughout the college basketball season, Covers Expert Jesse Schule will dissect the new Top 25 rankings, looking for betting value. He'll showcase the most overrated team, along with the most underrated ranked team, and an unranked squad that he feels should be in the Top 25.

Most Underrated Top 25 Team - New Mexico Lobos (16-2 SU, 9-7-1 ATS)

The Lobos have faced three Top-25 teams so far this season, and picked up victories in each of those games against Connecticut, Cincinnati and UNLV. Despite the fact they rank among the worst shooting teams in the nation, hitting just 41.6 percent of their shots from the field, they have been a good bet. The Lobos have cashed a winning ticket, covering the points in four of their last five games.

New Mexico has a tough challenge coming up this weekend when they clash with the San Diego State Aztecs at the Aztec Bowl on Saturday. They might be catching the Aztecs at a good time though, as San Diego State is coming off back-to-back losses, and starting G Xavier Thames remains questionable with a back injury.

Most Overrated Top 25 Team - San Diego State Aztecs (14-4 SU, 7-6 ATS) 

The Aztecs are coming off consecutive losses to unranked teams, losing 82-75 at home against UNLV on January 16, and then falling 58-45 at Wyoming just three days later. San Diego State is one of the poorest shooting teams in the country, ranking 158th in the nation, hitting just 43.6 percent from the field.

The Aztecs will look to avoid a third consecutive loss to a Top 25 team this Saturday when they take on the New Mexico Lobos at home. They lost earlier this season to Syracuse and Arizona in their only two games against ranked opponents.

Unranked Team That Should Be Ranked – Miami Florida (13-3 SU, 10-3 ATS)

The Hurricanes have reeled off five wins in a row, three of those on the road. They covered the spread in four of those five victories, and they have been a great bet all season with a 13-3 ATS record.

Miami will host top-ranked Duke on Wednesday and the Hurricanes are getting just three points in that game (Update: Miami upset Duke 90-63). The Hurricanes are getting respect from the books against the nation's top team, perhaps because they've covered the points in 10 of their last 13 home games. They will also be tested next week when they take on the Wolfpack in North Carolina.
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