The San Antonio Spurs are just one win away from shocking the defending champion Miami Heat in the NBA Finals, taking a 3-2 series lead into Game 6 Tuesday. Oddsmakers have set the Heat as sizable home favorites with their backs against the wall.
We talk with Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker for CarbonSports.ag, about the betting action and where the odds could end up before the 9 p.m. ET tipoff.
San Antonio Spurs at Miami Heat – Open: -6.5, Move: -7.5, Move: -6.5
This line moved as much as a full point at some books with early action flooding in on the Heat following their Game 5 loss in San Antonio.
That forced books to jump from -6.5 to -7 and eventually as high as -7.5, before sharp money bought back the Spurs. That wiseguy action has many books trimming the line back to its original number and crossing their fingers that the final score doesn’t land squarely on seven.
“Late yesterday afternoon, we went to Heat -7.5 because money kept showing on the favorite and respecting the sharp action that laid us 6.5, we wanted to shed some of our Heat liability,” Stewart told Covers. “Early this morning, we took a decent size bet from one of our sharper players on the Spurs +7.5 and we quickly went to Heat -7. At this point, we’re now dead even on this game and as long as it doesn’t land seven, we should make money.”
As for the Game 6 total, sportsbooks opened the over/under at 190.5 and have moved to 191 or 191.5. According to Stewart, early money was playing the over and about 70 percent of the total action is leaning toward a high-scoring game.
“I suspect well tick it up one more time and go to 192 at some point today,” says Stewart. “With the last three games going over and the last game seeing a total of 218 points scored, I can’t help but think we’re going to see a ton of recreational money backing the over tonight.”
CarbonSports.ag is currently dealing Miami as a -130 series favorite with the final two games scheduled in South Beach, thanks to a 2-3-2 NBA Finals format. San Antonio is currently set as a +110 underdog to win the NBA title, despite holding a 3-2 series edge.