A weekly look at a few games and what direction the numbers are moving as we head into Week 6, with an assist from Mike Perry at sportsbook.ag.
Cincinnati at Cleveland – Open: Bengals -3, Move: Bengals -1
The public seems to be coming to the conclusion that the Browns really aren’t as bad as their SU (straight up) record indicates (0-5). Cleveland played the Bengals to a statistical standout in Week 2 on the road, with the only thing separating the teams being a Browns special teams breakdown that allowed an 81-yard punt-return score. The Brownies are continuing to play hard. Bengals backers like the way they’ve played on the road since getting demolished at Baltimore on opening day.
“The wise guys and public are on opposite sides in this one,” says Perry.
Detroit at Philadelphia – Open: Philadelphia -6; Move Philadelphia -4
So much drama and so much uncertainty in Philadelphia. Can Michael Vick hold onto the ball? If he doesn’t, will there be an in-game change at quarterback? There’s no alpha dog yet in the NFC East, but with the Giants on the West Coast (49ers) this week, there could be an opening for the Eagles. The Lions haven’t covered the number yet, but bettors haven’t abandoned them, as the number has steadily melted since its -6 opener. Decent action (65 percent) on the Lions has depressed the number, says Perry.
Green Bay at Houston – Open Green Bay +4.5; Move Green Bay +3.5
The NFC North seems upside down, with GB and Detroit at the bottom looking up at Minnesota and Chicago. The screw-job in Seattle has drawn a bit of attention away from the fact that the Packers have become a crap cover team. Still, public money has tightened this game a point after the opener, and now Perry reports that there is even action on both sides, with a slight edge to the Texans. GB should be emptying the playbook on this one –- another loss could knock GB three full games off the division lead.