The countdown to the 2017 NFL season officially started when James White punched it into the end zone and the final whistle blew on Super Bowl LI. That thrilling finale meant bettors wouldn’t have another official NFL game to bet on for another 236 days.
Football starved bettors make the most of prop bets on the combine and the draft during the offseason, and we even will bet on a few preseason games in August. But the real granddaddy of offseason betting options are NFL season win totals.
A season win total is the oddsmakers’ estimate of just how well a team will do in the upcoming season, setting an expected win amount and allowing bettors to wager Over or Under that mark. The NFL season win totals came out last month, which means a lot people still haven’t gotten in on the action yet.
We looked at all the totals over the last 10 years to see which teams routinely outperform Vegas’ projection and which ones frequently underperform.
Here’s what we learned:
Overachievers:
Houston Texans: 8-2
Houston is the best Over bet for season win totals across the last 10 seasons and its backers cashed in on Over plays in five of the last six seasons. The one season in which Houston did not finish above its win total was in 2013, when oddsmakers set their total at 10.5 wins and Houston won just two games.
Juuuuust a bit outside.
Oddsmakers have the Texans 2017 season win total set at 8.5.
New England Patriots: 7-2-1
Shocking, right? The Pats have won the AFC East division in 13 of the last 14 years and have won 12 or more games in each of the last seven regular seasons.
Bookies are tired of taking the ‘L’ on New England Over bets. They set the 2017 season win total for Brady’s bunch at 12.5 – the highest season win total we could find going back as far as the 2001 season. To give some perspective, the Pats win total was set at 12 in 2008 coming off their 16-0 mark the year before.
Pittsburgh Steelers: 7-3
Stability at the quarterback and head coach spots is a quality this franchise shares with the Patriots. The Over is 9-4 on season win totals for the Steelers since Ben Roethlisberger became the starting QB in 2004.
Arizona Cardinals: 7-3
Things really turned around quickly once the Cardinals hired Bruce Arians as head coach in 2013. Arizona outperformed its win total by 4.5, 3.5 and 4.5 games in his first three seasons on the sidelines. Last year was the club’s first season finishing Under the season win number since 2010.
Underachievers:
Cleveland Browns: 2-8
What is this, rebuild 7.0? The Browns change front offices like John Travolta changes hair pieces (I may have dated myself with that reference).
The Browns routinely get the lowest win total on the board and almost every year they finish below the number. The Under is 3-11 in the last 14 years on Cleveland win totals.
Oddsmakers set the club’s 2017 regular season win total at 4.5 – tied for the lowest number with the San Francisco 49ers.
Jacksonville Jaguars: 2-8
Can we all agree the Blake Bortles era should come to a merciful end? Let’s just pack up all those memories and throw it into the same closet with the Blaine Gabbert era.
The Jags have not gone Over their projected win total since a non-LeBron James-led team from the East made it to the NBA Finals.
The Jags 2017 win total is set at six wins.
Los Angeles Rams: 2-8
It makes sense the NFL’s most boring team to watch is also one of its serial underperformers. Not to make excuses, but the NFC West has been a tough division over the last half decade or so.
To snap the Under trend the Rams will have to win more than five games in 2017.
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