Exposing the Top 25: Where the polls went wrong

Oct 15, 2013 |
UCLA QB Brett Hundley threw for a career-high 410 yards against Cal.
Photo By - USA Today Sports
UCLA QB Brett Hundley threw for a career-high 410 yards against Cal.
Photo By - USA Today Sports
Each week throughout the college football season, Covers Expert Jesse Schule will dissect the new Top 25 rankings, looking for betting value. He'll showcase the most overrated team, along with the most underrated ranked team, and an unranked squad that he feels should be in the Top 25.

Most underrated Top 25 team: UCLA Bruins (6-0 SU, 6-0 ATS)

The Bruins have covered the points in all six of their wins this season and bettors are taking notice. After opening as 6.5-point underdogs versus Stanford on the road this week, public money has brought that line down at least two points.

The Cardinal were upset by the Utes in Utah last week, a team that UCLA handled with relative ease just 11 days prior. The Bruins offense is averaging over 45 points per game (seventh in the country). Quarterback Brett Hundley threw for a career-high 410 yards against Cal last week.

Most overrated Top 25 team: Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS)

The Red Raiders didn't look good in their win over Iowa State this week, allowing a special teams touchdown and turning the ball over three times. With games against Oklahoma and Oklahoma State coming up in the next few weeks, remaining undefeated is going to be tough.

After opening as 8-point favorites on the road in West Virginia next week, that line has now been bet down below a touchdown. It's easy to see why people would be skeptical about the Red Raiders covering on the road.

Unranked team that should be ranked: Utah Utes (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS)

The Utes have made the best of a tough schedule, with impressive victories over Utah State, BYU, and then a shocker over Stanford Saturday. The remainder of the schedule only sees one more ranked opponent, but that's a game against Oregon in which they won't stand much of a chance.

Still with five games against unranked teams, a bowl appearance is still in play. Both of their losses this season have come at home, and one of those was an overtime thriller against the Beavers. Utah has consecutive road games against Arizona and USC coming up.
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