The nominations for the 69th Primetime Emmy Awards are out and we at Covers decided to set odds for all the major categories. You can tell by the numbers below that we expect HBO and Netflix to be the big winners come September 17th.
The Crown (Netflix) +200
Stranger Things (Netflix) +233
The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu) +700
Westworld (HBO) +1500
Better Call Saul (AMC) +1900
House of Cards (Netflix) +2800
Reasoning: Game of Thrones won this category the last two years but isn’t eligible this year because of its late start to its seventh season. That opens the door in a competitive field for voters to crown a first-time winner.
Stranger Things is beloved by the masses but this isn’t a popularity contest. Remember, the Emmy voters awarded Fraser best comedy for five straight years during the peak years of Seinfeld and Friends.
This is the fifth straight year House of Cards has been nominated and we can only assume it’s because Kevin Spacey has dirt on a good chunk of the nomination committee.
The Crown, a look at the early days of Queen Elizabeth II, won best TV drama at the Golden Globes and should receive the same honors at the Emmys.
Veep (HBO) -150
Atlanta (AMC) +400
Master of None (Netflix) +1100
Black-ish (ABC) +2000
Silicon Valley (HBO) +2500
Modern Family (ABC) +5000
Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (Netflix) +9000
Reasoning: Remember what we said about Fraser? The voters have their favorites and Veep is in that group. The smartly-written HBO political satire won the last two years and there isn’t a huge threat to end the show’s winning streak.
Atlanta was a breakout success in the show’s first season and it won the Golden Globe for best TV comedy series. It would be an upset if the AMC show trumped Veep in September.
Modern Family, a regular winner in this category, no longer has its fastball in Season 8 of the series.
Tina Fey racked up Emmy awards for her work on 30 Rock but her Netflix show Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt doesn’t have the same big laughs or following.
Best Actor in Drama
Sterling K. Brown (This Is Us) +200
Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul) +214
Anthony Hopkins (Westworld) +800
Matthew Rhys (The Americans) +850
Milo Ventimiglia (This Is Us) +1250
Kevin Spacey (House of Cards) +2400
Liev Schreiber (Ray Donovan) +5200
Reasoning: Tough field to set odds for here. TV critic Alan Sepinwall raised a good point regarding the Emmys saying a lot of the time voters don’t vote for what’s best but for what’s best for the business.
This Is Us is one of the only major network shows receiving acknowledgement in the nominations. This is the best chance a network show gets at walking away with a major award from this year’s Emmys.
Best Actress in Drama
Elisabeth Moss (The Handmaid’s Tale) -110
Claire Foy (The Crown) +250
Keri Russell (The Americans) +1000
Viola Davis (How to Get Away with Murder) +1500
Evan Rachel Wood (Westworld) +2000
Robin Wright (House of Cards) +6600
Reasoning: Moss stole the spotlight as Peggy on Mad Men but this might be her best performance yet, according to critics. The Handmaid’s Tale is Hulu’s only show nominated for one of the heavy hardware pieces so you can bet the outlet is putting its full weight behind promoting the show to all voters.
Claire Foy, who plays Queen Elizabeth II in The Crown, is the only other likely winner despite the big names nominated in this category.
Viola Davis won this category in 2015 for her same role but How to Get Away with Murder is running on fumes despite Davis’ noteworthy performances.
Best Actor in Comedy
Donald Glover (Atlanta) +175
Aziz Ansari (Master of None) +300
William H. Macy (Shameless) +500
Zach Galifianakis (Baskets) +700
Anthony Anderson (Black-ish) +2000
Jeffery Tambor (Transparent) +2100
Reasoning: Atlanta is Glover’s baby. He created it, stars and even performs musically in the show. No doubt voters will give extra points for all the additional times his name appears in the end credits.
His chief competition is another comedian staring in a show he helped create. Ansari actually learned Italian for a plot point of his character in Season 2 of Master of None.
Best Actress in Comedy
Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Veep) -150
Tracee Ellis Ross (Black-ish) +550
Lily Tomlin (Grace and Frankie) +750
Allison Janney (Mom) +3000
Jane Fonda (Grace and Frankie) +3000
Pamela Adlon (Better Things) +3000
Ellie Kemper (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt) +3000
Reasoning: Julia Louis-Dreyfus in this category is like Roger Federer at Wimbledon - everyone else is playing for second place.
Louis-Dreyfus is on a five-year run winning the Emmy in this category and there’s no reason to think the streak will snap this year.