Tracking line moves as we head into the second quarter of the schedule. We spoke with Mike Perry at sportsbook.ag and Aron Black at bet365.com for a look at a few games as we follow the money.
Cleveland Browns at New York Giants – Open: Cleveland +13, Move: Cleveland +8
Betonline opened this one at a fat 13, but most everyone else was in the Browns +10 range, and since then it has been bet down a bit. “The Browns have been competitive in every game they’ve played this year,” notes Perry, and Black adds that “The Giants seem to be playing bad one week and good the next.” The public, says Perry, is on the Browns by a 2-1 margin, while Black reports light action on this one.
Chicago Bears at Jacksonville Jaguars – Open: Jacksonville +3, Move: Jacksonville +6
The Jags have only two problems – one is offense, the other defense. Both should be on display this week. And As Perry notes, “It’s tough to argue with people backing the Bears after the way they looked against the Cowboys on Monday night.” Black, meanwhile, sees a very difficult game ahead for offensive-challenged Jacksonville. Perry’s book pulls in the rope a bit and now lists J-Ville at +5.5, even though bettors are heavy (93 percent) on the Bears.
Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals – Open Bengals -5.5, Move Bengals -3
This has been bet down to a field goal game, mainly because the Dolphins have been able to hang in over the last few weeks, losing by three each to the Jets and unbeaten Cardinals. Perry points out that the Dolphins had a good chance to beat Arizona last weekend. “Do they pull the upset this week?” he asks. Bettors say no, expecting a cover by a 65-35 margin. The Bengals could be overvalued, as Black notes that they will be playing their fifth straight game against a first- or second-year quarterback.
Houston Texans at New York Jets – Open: Jets +9, Move Jets +8
These teams are going in opposite directions, and the betting public (decisively on the Texans) apparently doesn’t care that the game will be played in New Jersey and that New York will be getting a touchdown and change. “If San Francisco can go up 34 on the Jets with no reply,” says Black, “what is Houston capable of?” The Jets haven’t been this big a home dog since they got 7.5 against the Colts in 2006. Jets die-hards can still get 9 by shopping around. “Question is,” says Perry, “will the Jets even make it competitive on Monday night?”