Essential Week 3 betting tidbits and odds for NFL Sunday

Sep 23, 2017 |
Essential Week 3 betting tidbits and odds for NFL Sunday

Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5, 39.5)

This is the fifth consecutive year the Jags will be playing a “home” game in London. Jacksonville has played more games in London than any other NFL franchise and it is considering building a training facility near Wembley Stadium in London.

The Jags are 2-2 straight up and against the spread in their four previous games in London but are 2-0 SU and ATS in the last two years. This will be the Ravens' first game in London.

LINE HISTORY: The Ravens opened up as large as 4.5-point chalk but are now giving 3.5 points at just about all sportsbooks. The total has been bet down from 40 to 39.

TRENDS:

*The Under is 5-0-1 in the last six meetings between these two clubs.
*The Jags are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.

Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (+3, 40)

Buffalo finished with the best running attack in the league in 2016 and were off to a good start after Week 1. But last week the Bills rushed for 69 yards on 23 carries against the Carolina Panthers. All 69 of those yards came after first contact too, according to ESPN Stats and Info. Not a great showing for the Bills O-line.

The Broncos own the third best running defense and are fresh off holding Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott to eight yards on nine carries.

LINE HISTORY: This line opened as low as Broncos -1.5 but most shops now have the Bills getting a full field goal. The total is holding steady at 40 points.

TRENDS:

*The Broncos are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games in September.
*The Bills are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against teams with winning records.

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-5.5, 46.5)

Sam Bradford won the NFC offensive player of the week award in Week 1 and Tom Brady won the AFC version in Week 2. Both players’ award-winning performances came against New Orleans.

The Saints own the worst defense in the NFL and could be without two of their top three cornerbacks (Marshon Lattimore and Sterling Moore) against the Panthers.

LINE HISTORY: The total opened as high as 49 offshore but is now down to 46.5 pretty much across the board. The Panthers opened as 6.5-point faves but the number has dropped to 6 and 5.5.

TRENDS:

*The Saints are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games and 4-0 ATS in their last four games against Carolina.
* The Under is 5-0-1 in the Panthers’ last six games overall.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Chicago Bears (+7, 44)

The Chicago Bears could have some key players back in their lineup in Week 3. Guard Kyle Long is the team’s best offensive lineman but he’s been out of action since late last season with an ankle injury. He’s been cleared to play by the club’s medical team and could start against the Steelers.

Cornerback Prince Amukamara is expected to make his Bears debut this weekend as is former Steelers wideout Markus Wheaton.

LINE HISTORY: The books opened with the Steelers as 7.5 to 8-point chalk. A few offshore shops have moved it down to the key number (Pitt -7). The total opened as high as 46 and can be found as low as 44 entering the weekend.

TRENDS:

*The Steelers are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
*The Bears are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games in September.

Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions (+3, 50.5)

If you like the Lions to win this game outright, you might want to consider placing a bet on Matthew Stafford to win NFL MVP right now. Multiple offshore books, including Sportsbook.com, lowered Stafford’s MVP odds to 5/1 behind only Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady.

Bet365.com and a few other shops still have Stafford in the 40/1 range but that price won’t remain if the Lions improve to 3-0.

LINE HISTORY: Some shops opened with the Falcons laying 3.5 points but every sportsbook is now at the field goal spread. The total has been bet up from 49 to 50.5.

TRENDS:

*The Lions are 0-4 ATS in their last four games against teams with winning records.
*The Under is 10-3 in Detroit’s last 13 games overall.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings (-1.5, 41)

Sam Bradford is practicing but bettors won’t know if the former Heisman winner will start for the Vikings until the hours before kickoff on Sunday. Case Keenum will get the start under center for a second straight week if Bradford’s knee doesn’t cooperate.

Keenum won and covered the spread against the Bucs in 2016 and 2015 as the starting quarterback for the Los Angeles Rams.

LINE HISTORY: Most books are still waiting to hear definitively on Bradford before releasing their odds. SportsInteraction.com opened with the visiting Bucs getting 1.5 points and the line moved up to Bucs +2 only a few hours later.

TRENDS:

*The Under is 6-1-1 in Tampa’s last eight games overall.
*The Bucs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against the Vikings.

Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts (+1.5, 41)

The Browns are in the unusual position of being the betting favorite in an NFL game. It ends a 21-game underdog streak for the franchise. Cleveland hasn’t been chalk since Week 14 of the 2015 campaign when it won and covered as a 2.5-point fave against the 49ers.

Dating back to Week 12 of the 2013 season, the Browns are 2-7-1 ATS in games they were favored.

LINE HISTORY: Just about all shops opened at Colts +1 and that’s when the line still stands heading into the weekend. The total remains around the opening number of 40.5.

TRENDS:

*The Browns are 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 games.
*The Under is 6-0 in the Colts’ last six home games.

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (+6, 43)

Miami is in the middle of its season from hell in terms of travel itinerary.

The Dolphins’ Week 1 home game against the Bucs was postponed to their bye week because of Hurricane Irma. They practiced in California before playing the Rams in Los Angeles then returned to Miami and will fly out to New York this weekend. After the game, they’ll prep for their trip to London to “host” the Saints at Wembley.

That’s a lot of air miles racked up over a few weeks.

LINE HISTORY: This game opened at Jets +6 and that’s where the line still sits. The total has been bet up from 41 to 43.

TRENDS:

*The road team is 14-6-1 ATS in the last 21 games between this two sides.
*The Dolphins are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games.

Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-14, 44)

Texans QB Deshaun Watson is trying to become the first rookie to beat the Patriots at home since Bill Belichick came in 2000. First-year signal callers are 0-8 SU and 2-6 ATS playing at Foxoborough with a collective five TD passes against 16 interceptions and a 50.7 passer rating.

Houston has been outscored 88-22 in its three games against the Patriots under head coach Bill O’Brien. New England won and covered in all of those games.

LINE HISTORY: Bookmakers might have underestimated the public’s support behind the Patriots. New England opened as a 12.5-point fave and is now giving 14 points at most shops. The total has been bet up from 43.5 to 44.5.

TRENDS:

*The Texans are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games against the Pats and 0-5 in their last five trips to New England.

Seattle Seahawks at Tennessee Titans (-2.5, 42.5)

The Seahawks are one of the biggest early season disappointments for bettors – which explains the why they’re getting 2.5 points on the road against Tennessee. The Seahawks scored just one touchdown, they’re 26th in 1st downs per game (16.5) and they’re 29th in yards per play at 4.2.

LINE HISTORY: Most books opened with the Titans giving two points and the line is up to Titans -2.5. The total can be found around 42.5.

TRENDS:

*Seattle is 0-5 ATS in its last five away games.
*The Titans are 7-22-2 ATS in their last 31 home games.

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-6, 42.5)

Things are deteriorating quickly for the Giants. The two people at the top of the team’s totem pole – QB Eli Manning and head coach Ben McAdoo – don’t seem to be on the same page, and both are the two people chiefly responsible for an ineffective offense.

McAdoo really dressed down Manning after Monday night’s home loss to the Detroit Lions.

The G-Men haven’t scored more than one offensive touchdown since Week 15 of last season. 

LINE HISTORY: The Wynn and Westgate opened Eagles -4.5 and -3.5 respectively. Both books adjusted quickly to early action on the Eagles and bumped the line up to 5.5. The total is staying steady between 42.5 and 43.

TRENDS:

*The Giants are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against the Eagles.
*The Under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between these two sides at Philly.

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers (+3, 47.5)

The books are letting you take the Chargers are +3 but you might as well as not bet them unless you think they can best the Chiefs by nine points or more. You see, the Bolts stink in close games.

The Chargers are 4-18 SU in one-score games since the start of the 2015 campaign. Their new kicker isn’t helping matters. Youngshoe Koo has missed three of his four field goal attempts this season including the potential game-winning kick against the Dolphins last week.

LINE HISTORY: Some shops opened at 2.5 but just about all locations list the Chiefs as 3-point chalk. The total is sitting at 47.5.

TRENDS:

*The Chiefs are 7-0 in their last seven road games.
*The Chargers are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.

Cincinnati Bengals at Green Bay Packers (-9, 46.5)

The Bengals did the only thing you can do when your team hasn’t found paydirt after two full games. They fired their offensive coordinator.

Will new OC Bill Lazor make a difference? Well, in his only two years as an offensive coordinator in the NFL, he led a middle of the pack offense in 2014 with the Dolphins and then got dumped after the offense dipped drastically the following year.

LINE HISTORY: The Packers opened as 9-point favorites and have been bet up to -9.5. The total is holding at 45 points.

Oakland Raiders at Washington Redskins (+3, 54.5)

There are a lot of positive changes going on for the Oakland Raiders and fewer whistles from the zebras is a big one. The Raiders are averaging seven penalties per game this season. Last season they had a league-high 9.1 penalties per game and they were the third worst in 2015 at 8.7 penalties against per game.

Might not sound like a huge difference but two fewer whistles can mean the difference between a scoring drive and a punt.

LINE HISTORY: There are already some shops offering 3.5 points a half point higher than the opening field goal spread. Bettors should expect the line to grow as more action comes in on the Raiders leading up to kick off.

TRENDS:

*The Raiders are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games.
*The Redskins are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against winning teams.


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