Sports Interaction betting analyst Frank Doyle previews Week 9’s NFL action.
All odds current as of noon ET, Oct. 31
NFL betting trends come and go as bettors and oddsmakers play their weekly game of cat and mouse. It’s a fluid situation so you just don’t see prolonged trends very often. Bookies adjust to the games and the action they see and try to keep action relatively balanced.
That’s why when you see a trend hitting at almost a 60 percent clip over a full month, it’s worth looking into. Over the past 30 days, 59 percent of NFL games have played over their posted totals. We all know the NFL has been a passing league for a while, but that’s a significant trend especially when you consider the over is hitting at a 55 percent clip through the first eight weeks of the season.
Sure, Peyton Manning and the Broncos have a lot to do with it. They’ve played over in each of their eight games so far and bookies just can’t set totals high enough for them on a weekly basis. Lots of other teams are just hammering totals too though. Chicago and Minnesota have played over in six of seven games, St. Louis and Buffalo have the over at 6-2, while Miami and Atlanta have seen five of their seven games check in above the total.
Will this even out? Sure, with winter on its way, over time it will even out. But for now, it’s something to keep in mind as you go through Week 9’s odds.
Movers and shakers
The Miami Dolphins opened as 1.5-point home underdogs as they get set to host the Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday Night football, but bettors are all over the Bengals. After putting up 103 points over the last three weeks (and seeing the over go 3-0), Cincinnati is now a 3-point favorite (-125) at Sports Interaction. Right now, about 87 percent of the action is on Cincy.
Another home team that isn’t seeing any love is the New York Jets. They started off as 4.5-point home underdogs for their Week 9 matchup with the Saints but are now at +6 with even more heavy action coming in on New Orleans. This line could move to a touchdown by kickoff.
New England’s matchup with the Steelers will be one to keep a close eye on. The Pats opened as 6.5-point favorites but moved to -7 shortly after. Now New England, which is coming off a 10-point win over Miami, is holding as a 6-point favorite.
The 8-0 Kansas City Chiefs are seeing 86 percent of Sports Interaction’s action as they get set to visit the Buffalo Bills as 3-point favorites (-120).
About 92 percent of bettors are backing the Indianapolis Colts this week. Indy is a 2.5-point favorite (-120) at Houston.