How to bet the NFL's coldest games

The Chicago Bears are 7-2 ATS in games played in 19 degrees F or colder since 2004. Green Bay, on the other hand, is 4-9 ATS in that same environment.

Dec 17, 2016 • 11:00 ET
Photo By - USA Today Images

To steal a line from a somewhat creepy and possibly inappropriate Christmas song, “Baby, it’s cold outside”.

Football bettors will want to dress in layers for Week 15 of the NFL season, even if you’re watching from the comforts of your own home, with sub-freezing temperatures in the forecast for a handful of Sunday’s contests.  

The cold can play a big factor when it comes to deciding the outcome of a game. Some teams welcome Mother Nature’s challenge, sporting short sleeves and a “bring it on” attitude. Others don’t come out for pregame warmups.

Case in point: the Dallas Cowboys played the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field on a Monday night in Week 14 of the 2013 season. Temperatures were recorded at 8 degrees F but felt much colder with winds whipping around the stadium. Dallas, a warm-weather team with a domed venue, looked defeated from the coin flip and was blasted 45-28 as a 1.5-point road underdog. 

Going back to 2009, home teams in NFL contests with game-time temperatures of 19 degrees F or lower are 12-6 ATS (14-3-1 SU), outscoring their frozen opponents 27.9-17 for a difference of almost 11 points per game versus an average pointspread of -4.4. That’s a buffer of 6.5 points – or a touchdown – in that span.

However, home teams didn’t always have the edge in these cold weather outings – at least as far as sportsbooks were concerned. From 2004 to 2008, those host teams were just 6-17 ATS (9-14 SU) in games when the thermometer read 19 degrees F or colder.

As for the cold weather’s impact on the betting totals, those frigid environments didn’t cool off the scoring too much, with NFL games played in 19 degrees F or colder boasting an 11-7 Over/Under mark since 2009 (61 percent Overs) and a 23-17-1 O/U count since 2004 (57.5 percent Overs). 

Over the past eight seasons, those sub-19 degree F games have produced an average final score of 44.9 combined points versus an average closing betting total of 42.3 points – going Over by an average of 2.6 points. 

The Week 15 weather in Chicago falls into the “frightful” category, with the forecast calling for temperatures to dip to 2 degrees Fahrenheit for Sunday’s 1 p.m. showdown between the Bears and the visiting Green Bay Packers (-5.5, 38.5). Toss in that famous Chicago wind, which is supposed to blow at around 15 mph, and game-time temps will feel more like -15 degrees F. 

This game saw significant action from the wiseguys earlier in the week, trimming the total from 44.5 to 38.5 and betting the host Bears down from +7 to +5.5. 

Chicago is 4-2 ATS (5-1 SU) at home in those qualifying cold games and 3-0 ATS (1-2 SU) in that same weather on the road since 2004 – a combined 7-2 ATS mark in games played in 19 degrees F or colder. Green Bay, on the other hand, is 4-9 ATS in that same environment. 

At Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City faithful will put their bodies on line for the Chiefs’ home date with the Tennessee Titans (+5), with temperatures falling to 7 degrees F and feeling more like zero when you factor in the wind chill. 

Kansas City is 2-1 SU and ATS at home and 1-0 ATS (0-1 SU) on the road in those sub-19 degree F outings since 2004. Tennessee, meanwhile has played two of these freezing games in the last 13 seasons, losing both SU and ATS at Denver in 2013 and at Arrowhead in 2010.

In Orchard Park, New York, the mercury will read 25 degrees F on Sunday when the Buffalo Bills host the Cleveland Browns (+10, 41.5), but when you mix in winds blowing around 20 mph that temperature will feel more like 12 degrees F down on the field. 

Buffalo has hosted only one game at 19 degrees F or lower since 2004, knocking off the Indianapolis Colts 30-7 as a 9-point home favorite in Week 17 of the 2009-10 season when temperatures dropped to 12 degrees F. The Bills won and covered on the road in two cold weather stops, knocking off Cincinnati in 2004 and Denver in 2008. Cleveland is 2-2 SU and ATS in the same weather, going back to 2004.

Other locations feeling the chill in Week 15 are Cincinnati (27 degrees, feels like 18) and Denver (26 degrees, feels like 16). 

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