The last three men’s NCAA basketball programs to win the national title are a perfect 18-0 against the spread in their run to the championship, with Villanova in 2016, Duke in 2015 and Connecticut in 2014 all going a perfect 6-0 ATS in their respective years.
In fact, going back to 2006, each winner of the Big Dance has posted an ATS record of 4-2 or better, with those 11 champs going a combined 57-9 ATS – covering the spread at an 86 percent rate. That amazing streak not only tells us that these team were championship caliber but also exceed the oddsmakers’ expectations.
Playing beyond the expectations of the betting public may be the key to winning a title, and would mean – based on current 2017 NCAA tournament ATS records – there is only one Final Four team that is on pace to win the tournament.
As of Saturday’s Elite Eight openers, only three teams had perfect 3-0 ATS records through the first three rounds: Kansas, Xavier and South Carolina. After the dust settled Sunday evening, only South Carolina remained in the tournament and they held on to their perfect ATS record (4-0) as a result of their impressive 77-70 win over the Florida Gators as three-point dogs.
If you’re buying into the current trend of unblemished ATS teams taking the national title, you can find great futures value in the Gamecocks. Prior to their Elite Eight tip-off against the Gators, South Carolina was available at 18/1. Following North Carolina's thrilling win over Kentucky on Sunday evening, and the Final Four was all set, adjusted futures were released with the Gamecocks set at 8/1.
South Carolina is the longest shot on the board with Gonzaga at 7/5, North Carolina at 8/5, and Oregon set at 4/1.
As for the teams that fell to those hot ATS winners in the national title game, they’ve gone a combined 43-22-1 ATS (79 percent) and not one had a sub-.500 ATS record at the end of the Big Dance. The last three years, second-place squads North Carolina (4-2 ATS), Wisconsin (3-3 ATS), and Kentucky (4-1-1 ATS) not only came up short on the scoreboard but also at the sportsbook counter.